EstimatednumberofRussiansoldierskilledin
fourweeksofwarinUkraine.Source:NATO, – ,
Rostov
MariupolPrimorsko-
AkhtarskMykolaiv MelitopolOdessa KhersonDnipro
KyvyiRih ZaporyzhzhyaChernihiv
Sumy
Okhtyrka
Lviv KharkivKyivChisinauBlack
SeaSeaof
AzovUKRAINEBELARUSP OLANDSLOVAKIAMOLDOVARUSSIACrimeaUkrainianterritory
annexedbyRussiaLuhanskanskDonetskDnieper150 kmClaimedRussian-controlled
AssessedRussianadvances*AssessedRussian-controlledUnitmovementsRussian UkrainianClaimedUkrainiancounteroffensivesMarch rd *Russiaoperatedinorattacked,butdoesnot
control Sources:InstitutefortheStudyof
War; AEI’s CriticalThreatsProject; Rochan
Consulting;OspreyFlightSolutionsRussianmissile,artillery
andairstrikes
March th- nd
< The fourth week of war: The military situation Ukraine’s resolAmid continuing reports of poor logistics
(andeven frostbite) Russian forces made
littleprogress. Bombings and missile
attacks continued, though, with one
missile becoming the fi rst to hit a target
inLviv, in the west of the country.A number of Ukrainian cities are holding
out despite signifi cant Russian forces
nearby, and in some of them citizens
are improving their living conditions.
Overall, people are becoming more
convinced that they will not be defeated.16 Briefing The war in Ukraine The Economist March 26th 2022
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Volo
dymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, says
that of every four incoming missiles one is
intercepted, one hits a military target and
two hit civilian targets. “I can’t say that in
Kyiv they are trying to hit civilians on pur
pose but a lot of times they miss,” he says,
adding that elsewhere residential areas
have been knowingly targeted.
Mariupol exemplifies that savagery. On
March 10th Russian aircraft started to
bomb the city; unlike Kyiv, it has no air de
fences. Soon a few bombs a day became a
few dozen bombs a day. On March 16th Rus
sian missiles fell on a swimming pool, a
cinema and a theatre; all three were being
used for shelter by civilians. The theatre
contained over 1,000 people, according to
an eyewitness there the day before; the
word “children” was written in large letters
on the pavement outside the theatre, but
did nothing to prevent the attack. No one
currently knows how many survived, nor
how many may remain buried alive.
In nine other towns and cities talks be
tween Russia and Ukraine have estab
lished humanitarian corridors through
which civilians can escape. Such talks have
not workedfor Mariupol. As things have
worsened the escape routes, already dan
gerous, have become more deadly. Olek
sandr Horbachenko, awelder, says that
when he left on March 18th the city was in a
state of collapse, with no municipal servic
es, no drinkable water and no food. He says
at least 80% ofbuildings are bombed out.
“The whole of the centre is in ruins, withwires and glass everywhere. The worst
thing is seeing the corpses strewn across
the street. There are hundreds of them rot
ting away near the central market.”
On March 20th a Russian bomb hit a
school on the eastern side of the city,
where 400 people were reportedly shelter
ing. Later that day, Russia delivered an ulti
matum: surrender the city by 5am the fol
lowing morning. The Ukrainian govern
ment refused. But it has no way of breaking
the blockade. On March 19th Mr Arestovych
said the nearest available forces were more
than 110km away. To reach the city they
would have to traverse terrain on which
they would be completely exposed to Rus
sian air attacks.
Many interpreted the ultimatum as a
warning of worse crimes to come, and
fighting intensified in the days that fol
lowed; ships are currently adding to the
bombardment. The city is close to falling.
On March 20th Andriy Biletsky, the foun
der of the Azov regiment, a paramilitary
outfit fighting alongside elite Ukrainian
forces from the 36th Marine Brigade, con
firmed that streettostreet fighting was
under way in the east of the city. With 3,
Ukrainian soldiers facing 14,000 invaders,
around a tenth of the total estimated Rus
sian force in the country, their prospects
look daunting, even though attackers are
generally reckoned to need a large numeri
cal advantage.
The carnage in Mariupol and the suc
cess in Kyiv have bothstrengthened Ukrai
nianresolve. But the country continues topursue negotiations with the invaders.
And Russia’s requirements from such
talks, though still beyond what Ukraine
says it is willing to give, are much more
modest now than they would have been
when the invasion was launched in expec
tation of an easy and near total victory. The
four principal ones are: a declaration of
Ukrainian neutrality; Ukrainian demilitar
isation; formal acceptance that Crimea,
which Russia seized in 2014, is Russian ter
ritory and that the Donbas region, some of
which was controlled by separatists
backed by Russia before the war, is inde
pendent; and relief for Russia from West
ern sanctions.
Ukraine appears ready to agree to some
of these demands. It has stated publicly
that it will make no concessions on territo
rial integrity with regard to Crimea and
Donbas, but behind closed doors there ap
pears to be more willingness to experi
ment with different formulas. However its
negotiators see no willingness to move on
the other side. “They’re not as confident
and selfassured as they used to be in the
first days,” Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s for
eign minister, said in an interview with
The Economist. ”But on all big issues they
are still where they were [when the negoti
ations began].”
If there is something Russia clearly
wants, it is relief from sanctions. “Almost
every tenth sentence [Russian negotiators]
say is about sanctions,” Mr Kuleba said.
“It’s a pain for them.” As a result Ukraine is
pressing its Western supporters to turn up