The Economist - UK (2022-04-09)

The Economist April 9th 2022 Europe 31

Hungary’selection

Unstoppable strongman

A

s electiondaydawnedonApril3rd,
the coalition of parties trying to unseat
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s reactionary prime
minister,  hoped  that  the  polls  showing
them trailing by six percentage points were
wrong. It turned out they were, but in the
other  direction.  Mr  Orban’s  governing  Fi­
desz  party  won  53%  of  the  vote,  while  the
opposition  United  for  Hungary  alliance
took just 35%. Fidesz increased its margin
in parliament and retained the two­thirds
supermajority needed to alter the constitu­
tion.  The  opposition’s  candidate,  Peter
Marki­Zay,  was  plucked  from  obscurity  a
few  months  ago,  and  will  most  likely  re­
turn to it. Mr Orban, the European Union’s
longest­serving  leader,  won  a  fourth  con­
secutive term and looks stronger than ever.
The prime minister claimed the win as
a vindication of his ideology of illiberal na­
tionalism.  Since  taking  office  in  2010  he
has changed the constitution to benefit his
party,  nobbled  the  courts  and  seized  con­
trol  over  most  of  the  media.  The  euhas
chided  his  government  for  violating  the
rule of law, misusing its funds and foster­
ing corruption. Mr Orban casts himself as
an underdog defending his people against
eu bureaucrats,  the  international  left  and
George  Soros,  a  Hungarian­born  Jewish
philanthropist  whom  he  accuses  of  plot­
ting to flood Hungary with Muslim immi­
grants.  “We  have  such  a  victory  it  can  be
seen from the moon, but it's sure that it can
be  seen  from  Brussels,”  Mr  Orban  crowed
after the results were in.
Also on his list of enemies is Volodymyr
Zelensky,  Ukraine’s  president.  Mr  Orban
has long had friendly relations with Vladi­
mir Putin, and claimed to be getting a dis­
count  on  Russian  gas.  He  has  been  the
most reluctant member of the natoand eu
coalition in the war in Ukraine, fiercely ar­
guing against sanctions on Russian energy
exports.  In  recent  weeks  Mr  Zelensky  has
demanded  that  Mr  Orban  decide  which
side  he  is  on.  Mr  Orban  retorted  that  the
opposition  would  drag  Hungary  into  the
war; they denied this, but many voters be­
lieved  it.  Government  figures  released
after the election showed Hungary is actu­
ally paying Russia market rates for its gas.
The  opposition’s  defeat  leaves  in  ruins
its effort to build a coalition to stop the hol­
lowing­out  of  Hungarian  democracy.  Be­
cause  most  mps  in  Hungary  are  elected
from single­member districts, smaller par­
ties struggle to win seats. After years of de­

feats,in 2020 sixparties,rangingfromthe

nationalistrighttothemetropolitanleft,

joined forcesintheUnitedfor Hungary

umbrellagrouping.Theyranprimariesto

selectcandidatesforparliament andfor

prime minister. Party leaders set aside

theirownambitionstobackMrMarki­Zay,

aconservative mayor who unexpectedly

wontheprime­ministerialprimary.

Nowthatcoalitionlooksdead.Ferenc

Gyurcsany,a formerprimeministerwho

leads the centrist Democratic Coalition

party,seemedtoquestionwhetherholding

a primaryhadbeena goodidea.PeterJa­

kab,theleaderofthehard­rightJobbikpar­

ty,reproachedMrMarki­Zayforlackinga

clearfocus.Joiningthecentristcoalition

was devastating for Jobbik, which lost

mostofitsvoterstoFideszortoOurHome­

land,a newnationalistparty.

Areportfromtheodihr, aEuropean

electionwatchdog,saidtheelectionlacked

a levelplayingfield.Themainproblemwas

nottampering,thoughtherewassomeof

that.Therewerereportsacrossthecountry

of“chainvoting”,inwhichvoterssmuggle

theirballotsoutofpollingstationssothat

theycanbefilledinbypartyorganisersand

thengiventoothervoterstosubmit,inex­

changeforpayment.Butthemoreimpor­

tantissuesweremediabiasandgovern­

mentsupportforFidesz.MrOrbanuses

Hungary’s state media as a propaganda

megaphone,andmostprivateoutletsare

controlledbyoligarchsfriendlytoFidesz.

Theoppositionreceivedlittleairtime,and

whatitgotwasoverwhelminglynegative.

Itcouldspreaditsmessageonlyviaa few

independent newswebsiteswhich most

votersoutsideBudapestrarelyread.

UnderMrOrban,thebillionsofeurosin

aidwhichtheeusendstoHungaryeach

yearhaveflowedlargelytosupportersof

Fidesz.Hungaryhastheworstrecord of

fraudulentuseofeufundsofanycountry

intheunion,accordingtoolaf, theeu’s

fraud­investigation agency. Mr Orban’s

friendsandrelativeshavegrownrich.The

euhasblockedHungaryfromaccessingits

covid­recoveryfund,andonApril5thit

triggereda procedurethatcouldcutoffthe

restoftheaidit sendstoHungaryuntilthe

countrystopsviolatingtheruleoflaw.

MrOrban’swinreinforceshisincreas­

ingly autocratic government. His next

movemaybetocompletethetakeoverof

thejudiciary,accordingtoananalysisby

Political Capital, an independent think­

tankinBudapest.Despitetheunfairelec­

toralsystem,membersoftheopposition

tookmostoftheblameuponthemselves.A

SocialistmepapologisedonFacebookfor

failingtounderstandmostofthecountry.

Manyoppositionmemberswereata loss

howtoproceed.Askedhowheexpectedto

takeupthefightinfouryears,anorganiser

ofa liberalngohadnoanswer:“I’mhoping

toleavethecountry.”n

Viktor Orban wins again. But his countryisincreasinglyisolated

So much for unity

Hungary, parliamentary election

Source:NationalElectionOffice

2018

2022

Seatswon

Fidesz United for Hungary Jobbik MSZP Democratic Coalition Other UfH Our Homeland Others

135

133 26 20 9 8 3

56 7 1

2018

2022

0 25 50 75 100

Share of the vote, %

No match for the machine