The Economist - UK (2022-04-09)

The Economist April 9th 2022 China 51

plan  to  introduce  a  bill  that  wouldallow
criminals  to  be  extradited  for  trialbythe
mainland’s  party­controlled  courts. But
the  party’s  support  for  Mr  Leesuggestsit
does  not  have  big  misgivingsabouther
handling of the protests: he washermain
adviser on how to police them. 
According to Hong Kong’s mini­consti­
tution, the Basic Law, the chief executiveis
selected locally and appointedbythecen­
tral government. In practice thepartycon­
trols  the  selection  process,  too.MrsLam
timed her announcement withthestartof
a  two­week  period  during  whichaspiring
candidates  for  the  post  must  securesuffi­
cient  nominations  from  the  1,500mem­
bers  of  an  election  committee, stacked
with  the  party’s  loyalists.  On  May8ththe
committee will choose the winnerbyvote.
Most members will cast their ballotsasthe
party wishes. Last year changesweremade
to  the  composition  of  the  committeeto
make it even more compliant. 
Since  the  end  of  British  ruleinHong
Kong in 1997, the party has selectedpeople
either with broad experience intheterrito­
ry’s civil service (such as Mrs Lam)orwho
are  prominent  business  leaders. All of
them have struggled to keep boththelead­
ership  in  Beijing  and  Hong  Kong’spublic
happy.  None  has  yet  served  twofive­year
terms, the maximum allowed. 
The choice of Mr Lee is a strikingdepar­
ture from the norm. He has spentmostof
his  career  as  a  police  officer.  Evenonthe
security­obsessed  mainland,  localleaders
are  rarely  people  with  such  a specialist
background.  Only  in  the  past  decadehas
the  64­year­old  served  in  a  morepolitical
role,  first  as  under­secretary  andthenas
secretary for security (a cabinetpost,inef­
fect). His only experience outsidethesecu­
rity realm has been in the past year,asMrs
Lam’s  deputy.  On  April  6th  heresigned
from that post and declared hisbidforthe
chief­executive position. 
It is easy to see why the partywouldlike
him. He has enthusiastically embracedthe
draconian  national­security  lawthatthe
central  government  imposed  ontheterri­
tory in 2020 to prevent a resurgenceofthe
previous year’s unrest (tougherpolicetac­
tics and pandemic social­distancingmea­
sures having helped to stifle it).Thepolice
have  used  the  new  bill,  and  colonial­era
laws,  to  arrest  thousands  of people for
protest­related offences. 
Crushing  dissent  in  Hong Kong re­
mains the party’s priority. On thedaythat
Mr  Lee  announced  his  campaign,a busi­
nessman  in  Hong  Kong  with  closetiesto
China’s  leadership,  Lo  Man  Tuen, pub­
lished  an  article  in  the  local  press.Itsaid
the  territory  needed  an  “iron  man”leader
who  could  resist  “American  and British
pressure” and implement the securitylaw
with  “no  second  thoughts”. The party
seems to think Mr Lee fits the bill.n

Foodsecurity

A big appetite

T

hecommunistpartyhasa waywith

words.Taketheprosaictopicoffood

security.Thepandemic,geopoliticalten­

sionsandheavyrainfalllastyear(which

mayleadtoa wretchedwheatcrop)threat­

en China’s grain supply. Lately officials

havebeenechoingtheexhortationofPres­

identXiJinpingthat“thepeople’sricebowl

mustbefirmlyheldintheirownhands at

alltimes.”Innon­party­speak,thegovern­

mentisthinkinghardabouthowtokeep

theworld’smostpopulouscountryfed. 

Past leaders have at times struggled

withthistask.TensofmillionsofChinese

perishedinthefaminecausedbyMaoZe­

dong’sruinouspoliciesinthelate1950s.

Sucha catastropheisinconceivabletoday.

ButrowswithAustraliaandCanadahave

madeChineseofficialsworrythatthecopi­

ousamountsofgrainthetwocountries

supplymightonedaybecutoff.Theynote

that soyabean imports from America

plungedwhenDonaldTrumplaunched his

tradewar.TheconflictinUkraineaddsan­

otherlayerofconcern.ThoughChinahas

tacitly backed Russia’s invasion (and

abruptlylifteditsbanonRussianwheat),

theturmoil couldmean less,orpricier,

foodinChinesebowls.LastyearUkraine

suppliedChinawith29%ofitsimported

cornand26%ofitsimportedbarley.

Globalfoodpriceswererisingevenbe­

forethewarstartedtoaffectthesupply of

grainsandfertiliseringredients. Thecon­

flict  scares  China  for  another  reason,  too.

The harsh sanctions imposed on Russia by

Western  countries  make  China  nervous

that  it  would  face  similar  punishment

were it to invade Taiwan. How, officials in

Beijing  ask,  can  China  rely  on  such  fickle

foreigners for its basic needs?

The  regime  has  dealt  with  these  con­

cerns in two important ways. It has stock­

piled  food—or,  as  critics  say,  hoarded  it.

Over the past five years China’s purchases

of everything from soyabeans to pork have

soared.  America’s  Department  of  Agricul­

ture predicts that by the middle of this year

China  will  hold  69%  of  the  world’s  maize

(corn) reserves, 60% of its rice and 51% of

its wheat. All this to feed 18% of the world’s

population.  Last  year  a  Chinese  official

said  that  the  country’s  grain  stocks  were

“historically high” and that it had enough

wheat to meet demand for 18 months. Chi­

na’s  big  purchases  have  pushed  up  global

prices, say analysts. 

In  the  longer  term  China  may  hope  to

diversify  its  suppliers.  This  will  be  diffi­

cult,  says  Zhang  Hongzhou  of  Nanyang

Technological  University  in  Singapore.  So

it  is  also  trying  to  become  self­sufficient.

One  benchmark  calls  for  Chinese  produc­

ers  to  meet  95%  of  the  country’s  demand

for basic grains. On rice they pass. On sor­

ghum  and  barley  they  fail.  On  maize  and

wheat  they  come  close.  Genetically  modi­

fied crops would help. The government fa­

vours the technology, but it has been slow

to introduce it because of public concern.

“Even  if  China  decides  it  wants  to  be

self­sufficient,  it  is  now  pretty  much  im­

possible,” says Dr Zhang. That may not stop

it  from  trying,  though.  Mr  Xi,  a  fervent

nationalist,  wants  more  of  what  China

consumes  to  be  madeathome.  Or,  as  he

put it last year: “The ricebowl must mainly

contain Chinese grain.”n

B EIJING

When China worries about food,

the world pays

Enough to fill a few bowls