The Economist - UK (2022-04-16)

40 MiddleEast&Africa TheEconomistApril16th 2022

Titforbloodytat

YemenandSaudiArabia,monthlytotals

Sources:YemenDataProject;ACLED

*Includesair/droneattacks,shelling/artillery/missileattacks

1,000

800

600

400

00

0

2015 2220

Saudiairstrikes

onHouthirebels

100

80

60

40

20

0

Houthicross-border

attacksonS.Arabia*

2015 2220

SAUDI ARABIA

YEMEN

ERITREA

Red Sea

Hodeida

Aden

Mixed or

disputed

Gulf of Aden

Marib

province

Taiz

150 km

Sana’a

Areas of control,April 11th 222

Source:Polgeonow.com

Houthi rebels Saudi-led coalition

Southern Transitional Council

y

po

pu

la

te

d

Marib

For more than a year the heaviest fight­

ing has been around Marib, a city under the

government’s control. The area is home to

1m people displaced from other parts of the

country  and  most  of  Yemen’s  oil.  The

Houthis want to capture it. They have lost

tens  of  thousands  of  fighters  trying  to

breach  its  defences.  Witnesses  say  they

have  continued  attacks  on  Marib  during

the truce, albeit at a lesser scale, and are us­

ing the lull to reinforce their positions.

“This is both a precious and precarious

moment,”  says  Hans  Grundberg,  the  un’s

envoy  to  Yemen.  “Ceasefires  rarely  hold  if

not supported by progress on the political

track.” The unhas spent years cajoling the

Houthis  and  Mr  Hadi’s  government  to

share power. The effort was doomed from

the  start.  Mr  Hadi  was  both  too  weak  and

too obstinate to be an effective negotiator.

The Houthis thus saw little reason to talk,

thinking they could win a better bargain on

the battlefield than by diplomacy.

Few  Yemenis  will  miss  their  ousted

president,  who  was  meant  to  serve  a  two­

year  transitional  term  but  stayed  for  ten.

An insular leader, he was surrounded by a

small  circle  of  relatives  and  cronies  and

ran a government­in­exile that was good at

stealing money and not much else.

Unlike Mr Hadi, many of the new coun­

cil’s  members  wield  influence  on  the

ground.  They  have  little  else  in  common:

the bodyembraces Islah, an Islamist party,

and the  Southern  Transitional  Council

(stc), a secessionist group that wants to re­

store  an  independent  South  Yemen.  Islah

and the stcdespise one another and have

clashed  repeatedly.  Even  if  they  set  aside

personal  and  ideological  animosity,  the

stc (whichis focused on the south, where

the Houthis have no presence) will be loth

to send its men to fight in the north.

Saudi  Arabia  is  keen  to  end  the  war.

Apart  from  its  financial  and  reputational

costs,  it  has  exposed  the  kingdom  to

increasingly accurate cross­border Houthi

attacks. But a face­saving exit for the Sau­

dis will not end the civil war that long pre­

dates  the  involvement  of  foreigners.  That

would require consensus among a vast

constellationofarmedgroups,including

theIranian­backedHouthis.

MorelikelyisthatYemenwillcontinue

its steady disintegration. The south,

backedbytheUnitedArabEmirates,will

pursuegreaterautonomy.Thenorthwill

trytonegotiateanawkwardpower­sharing

deal.Partsofthecountrywillremainun­

governed.Foralltheoptimismaboutthe

truce,it mayprovejustanintermissionbe­

foreanotherroundoffighting.n

Israel

Keep your cool

I

sraelpridesitselfonhavingsomeof

the world’s finest counter­terrorism un­

its.  But  when  a  lone  Palestinian  gunman

roamed the streets of Tel Aviv on April 7th,

it seemed to have too many of them. After a

shoot­up  outside  a  popular  night  spot,

which  left  three  Israelis  dead  or  dying,

hundreds of special forces, airborne com­

mandos  and  police  rushed  to  the  scene,

then milled around chaotically without co­

ordination. Some ran with guns cocked in­

to  restaurants  and  residential  buildings,

hoping to flush out the killer, who had fled

to Jaffa, a few miles south. He was tracked

down and shot dead eight hours later.

The  attack  was  the  fourth  in  an  Israeli

city  in  16  days.  Fourteen  victims  and  five

perpetrators  have  been  killed,  ending  ten

months of relative calm in the conflict be­

tween  Israel  and  the  Palestinians.  The  at­

tacks  were  not  jointly  planned  nor  attrib­

uted to a single group. The attackers came

from  different  communities  and  back­

grounds. Three were Arab citizens of Israel

(one  was  a  Bedou  from  the  Negev  desert)

who  had  tried  to  join  Islamic  State;  two

were Palestinians from the West Bank.

Israelis  and  Palestinians  were  bracing

themselves  for  another  round  of  violence

in  the  Muslim  holy  month  of  Ramadan,

which this year coincides with the Jewish

festival of Passover. A year ago there was a

month of constant clashes on the eastern,

Arab side of Jerusalem. Hamas, the Islam­

ist  group  that  runs  the  Gaza  strip,  then

joined in, firing rockets at Israel for 12 days,

provoking a devastating wave of Israeli air

raids  on  Gaza  and  widespread  riots  in

mixed Jewish­Arab towns in Israel proper. 

So far none of last year’s flashpoints has

erupted again. Bar a few scuffles, east Jeru­

salem  has  been  tense  but  calm.  Prayers

have taken place undisturbed at the al­Aq­

sa  mosque.  Crowds  of  young  Palestinians

have  been  quietly  enjoying  themselves

after breaking their Ramadan fast near the

city’s  Damascus  Gate,  the  scene  of  several

of last year’s violent confrontations. 

“There’s  a  general  feeling  in  Jerusalem

that this Ramadan has got to be different,”

says a Palestinian stall­owner. “The Israeli

police are behaving better, not firing skunk

all over the place.” Last year Israeli anti­riot

police sprayed the area with a putrid liquid

that  lingered  in  the  air  for  days.  Now  the

strongest smell is from shishapipes. 

Gaza,  still  under  a  state  of  semi­siege

imposed by Israel and Egypt, has been calm

this year, too. Hamas has not fired any of its

arsenal of rockets since a ceasefire, in May

2021.  While  congratulating  the  recent  at­
      tackers, it has prevented smaller Palestin­
      ian  factions  such  as  Islamic  Jihad  from
      launching rockets. 
      All  the  same,  the  outbreak  of  violence
      has come at a bad time for Israel’s govern­
      ment. Not yet ten months into its term, the
      unwieldy  coalition  of  eight  disparate  par­
      ties  lost  its  majority  in  the  120­member
      Knesset  when  a  member  of  the  party  of
      Naftali  Bennett,  the  prime  minister,  de­
      fected.  The  government  can  persevere
      without a majority, at least for a while, but
      if it were to lose another right­wing waver­
      er, an election could be called.
      This  political  pressure  could  prod  Mr
      Bennett  to  act  tougher  on  security.  So  far
      Palestinian workers are still allowed to tra­
      vel from the West Bank to jobs in Israel. A
      limited  number  may  enter  for  prayers  at
      the  al­Aqsa  mosque.  But  the  government
      has closed the West Bank town of Jenin to
      Arab  visitors  from  Israel,  since  two  of  the
      attackers  were  from  there.  Israel  has  also
      doubled the number of troops in the West
      Bank.  On  April  10th  a  Palestinian  woman,
      who  turned  out  to  be  unarmed,  was  shot
      dead  at  an  Israeli  roadblock  because  she
      was  “moving  suspiciously”.  “If  the  politi­
      cians  try  to  show  they’re  tough  andmore
      people  get  killed,  things  can  kick  offvery
      fast,” warns an Israeli security official.n

J ERUSALEM

A fragile government is being tested by

a spate of random terrorist attacks