The Economist - UK (2022-04-16)

TheEconomistApril16th 2022 43

Europe

TheFrenchpresidentialelection

Macron v Le Pen, again

T

herewere 12 candidates to pick from,
but  in  the  end  the  French  chose  the
same presidential finalists as in 2017. In the
first round of voting on April 10th, Emman­
uel  Macron,  the  centrist  president,  came
top,  with  almost  28%.  Marine  Le  Pen,  a
populist  nationalist,  came  second  with
23%. In the run­off in 2017 Mr Macron beat
Ms  Le  Pen  by  a  resounding  66%  to  34%.
When  voters  return  to  the  polls  on  April
24th  to  choose  the  next  president,  the  re­
sult is likely to be far closer.
Three  features  of  the  vote  stand  out.
First, Mr Macron drew 1m more votes than
in 2017, pushing his score four points high­
er  to  the  best  first­round  result  for  an  in­
cumbent  president  since  François  Mitter­
rand  in  1988.  Mr  Macron  may  be  unloved,
but,  partly  thanks  to  his  competent  man­
agement  of  the  economy,  the  pandemic
and European affairs, his approval rating is
over  40%—higher  at  the  end  of  his  term
than  his  two  predecessors,  François  Hol­
lande and Nicolas Sarkozy (though neither
of those got a second term). 
Second,  the  result  confirmed  the  total

collapse in presidential politics of the

mainstreampartiesonboththeleftand

theright.In 2017 theSocialists’andRepub­

licans’candidatesbetweenthemsecured

26%ofthevote.Thistime,theycouldnot

evenmuster7%.Neitherscoredeventhe

5%minimumtoqualifyformaximumre­

imbursementofcampaignexpenses.Valé­

rie Pécresse, the Republicans’ nominee,

pleadedfordonations,sayingsheisnow

personally€5m($5.4m)indebt.EvenYan­

nickJadotoftheGreens,a movementin

tunewiththetimes,failedtoreach5%.

TheflipsideofMrMacron’sremarkable

success at building a broad centrist

church,however,isthethirdandmoresin­

isterelementofthisvote.Thecombined

scoreforallpopulist,radicalandextremist

candidates was nearly 58%, sharply up

fromjustbelow50%in2017.Tacticalvot­

ingmayhaveinflatedthistotal.Theradi­

cal­leftJean­LucMélenchonsuppliedthe

biggestsurprise,cominginthirdwith22%.

Halfofthishaul,accordingtoone poll,

camefromSocialists,Greensandotherson

theleftwhohopedtokeepMsLePenoutof

therun­off.Butmuchofthepopulisttotal

istrulyextreme.Amongthoseeliminated

wasEricZemmour,a toxicfar­rightformer

televisionpundit,whoscored7%.

Theforceofthepopulistvotereflects

deepdiscontent.Manyvotersrejectout­

right the pro­European, broadly liberal

centrismonofferfromMrMacron,with

his sharp suits, diplomas and abstract

nouns.BothMsLePenandMrMélenchon,

whojointlysecured45%,speaktothisan­

gerinformerindustrialcities,rundown

tower blocks and rural France. In the

northernformerminingvillageofAuchy­

les­Mines,MsLePenscoreda massive48%

inthefirstround.InSeine­Saint­Denis,a

depressedbanlieuenorthofParis,MrMé­

lenchonbagged49%.

P ARIS
The two finalists go head-to-head in the closingphaseofthecampaign

→Alsointhissection

44 FinlandandNATO

45 Russian-speakersinGermany

45 Spain’sfarright

46 Charlemagne:Oldervoters’power

The rematch

French presidential election 2022

Round-two polling and predicted vote share, %

Source:TheEconomist’sforecastmodel

30

40

50

60

Election day 70

Macron

LePen

80% confidence interval

53

47

Jan Feb Mar Apr