Paris Climate Agreement Beacon of Hope

96

Table 2.3

AAWR from GCM RCP 4.5 simulations in the CMIP5 archive

CMIP5 GCM

Modeling Center

Ensemble run

GCM-AAWR (°C/dec)LIN

REG

ACCESS1.0

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

r1i1p1

0.248

0.230

ACCESS1.3

r1i1p1

0.234

0.206

Ctr Avg

0.241

0.218

BCC-CSM1.1

Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

r1i1p1

0.259

0.253

BCC-

CSM1.1(m)

r1i1p1

0.286

0.278

Ctr Avg

0.273

0.265

BNU-ESM

College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, China

r1i1p1

0.320

0.301

CCSM4

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), United States

r1i1p1

0.284

0.280

r2i1p1

0.255

0.247

r3i1p1

0.226

0.225

r4i1p1

0.214

0.204

r5i1p1

0.283

0.252

r6i1p1

0.234

0.223

Mod Avg

0.249

0.238

CESM1(BGC)

Community Earth System

r1i1p1

0.249

0.223

CESM1(CAM5)

Model Contributors, NCAR, United States

r1i1p1

0.198

0.179

r2i1p1

0.193

0.184

r3i1p1

0.243

0.230

Mod Avg

0.211

0.198

Ctr Avg

0.232

0.204

CMCC-CM

Centro Euro–Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici, France

r1i1p1

0.228

0.235

CMCC-CMS

r1i1p1

0.227

0.250

CNRM-CM5

r1i1p1

0.242

0.221

Ctr Avg

0.232

0.236

CSIRO-Mk3.6.0

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia

r1i1p1

0.172

0.170

2 Forecasting Global Warming