The Economist - UK (2022-04-30)

TheEconomistApril30th 2022 MiddleEast&Africa 43

Africa’sdebtcrisis

Debt anddenial

A

fricanfinanceministerstrying to

manage debt must be cursing their

luck.Firstthepandemicslammedtheirfi­

nances.InDecembera pandemic­inspired

schemetosuspendinterestpaymentsto

bilateralcreditors ended. Ithad delayed

debtproblemsbutdidnotfixthem.InFeb­

ruary Russiantanks rolledinto Ukraine

andjumpyinvestorsbegantoditchAfrican

governmentbonds.InMarchtheFederal

Reservebegantoraiseinterestrates,which

will make financing pricier everywhere.

Meanwhile,China,a bigeconomicpartner

forthecontinent,isstrugglingbecauseofa

rumbling property­debt problem of its

ownandlockdownstoslowcovid­19.

Allthishastakena toll.In 2015 theimf

judgedthateightcountriesinsub­Saharan

Africawereindebtdistressorathighrisk

ofit.Zambiadefaultedin2020.ByMarch

theimf’s listhadgrownto 23 countries.Af­

ricangovernmentsowemoneynotonlyto

richcountriesandmultilateralbanksbut

alsotoChinaandbondholders.

Thegoodnewsisthatfewcountriesin

sub­SaharanAfricaneedtomakebigprin­

cipalrepaymentstoprivatecreditorsthis

year.Itisthereforeunlikelythattherewill

bebonddefaultsinsub­SaharanAfricain

2022, evenas countries elsewhere miss

payments,saysGregorySmith,anecono­

mistandfundmanager.InSriLanka,for

example,protestersareoccupyingtheen­

trancetothepresident’soffice(seeBanyan)

andthegovernmenthascancelledexams

formillionsofschoolchildrenbecauseit

couldnotaffordthepapertoprintthem

on.ThebadnewsisthatAfricancountries

havesomeoftheworld’shighestinterest

billsrelativetorevenues.Thatleavesless

forspendingoneducationandhealth. It

couldalso foreshadowbiggertroublein

2024,whenbigloanpaymentsaredue.

In2010,amida commodityboomand

afterabigdebtwrite­offformanypoor

countries, Africangovernmentswere on

averagespendinglessthan5%ofrevenues

servicingforeignloans.By 2021 thishad

jumped to 16.5%, says the Jubilee Debt

Campaign,anngo. Thisishigherthanthe

12.5%averageofotheremergingmarkets.

InGhanaexternaldebtcostsconsume44%

ofgovernmentrevenues,reckonstheimf.

Cameroon,EthiopiaandMalawiallshelled

outabouta quarterofrevenues.

ForoilexporterssuchasAngolaandGa­

bon,highercrudepriceshelp.InAngola

thelocalcurrencyhassoaredalongwith

P ARIS

Defaultsareunlikelyinsub-SaharanAfricathisyear.Butthepainisreal

Fiscal snag

External government debt service,

as % of revenue

Sources: Jubilee Debt Campaign; World Bank; IMF

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2120181614122010

Zambia

Rwanda

Kenya

Ghana

Ethiopia

Angola

Israel,UkraineandtheHolocaust

Awkward

narratives

M

ountofremembranceonthewest­
ernedgeofJerusalemisencircledby
thousandsoftrees,manywitha signnam­
inga personanda country.TheAvenueof
theRighteousamongtheNations,a project
begunin 1962 byYadVashem,Israel’sna­
tional authority for Holocaust remem­
brance,linkstothemuseumandmonu­
mentscommemoratingtheextermination
ofEurope’sJews,manyoftheminUkraine.
RecognitionasaRighteousGentile,a
great honour, granted mainly posthu­
mously,tonon­Jewswhoriskedtheirlives
totrytosaveJewsfromdeportationand
murderduringtheHolocaust,isalabor­
iousprocedure.Eachcaseiscarefullyvet­
tedbya committeeofhistorianschairedby
a judgeonIsrael’sSupremeCourt.Butin
recentyearstheprocesshasbecomemore
controversialandpolitical,asvariousgov­
ernments seek to build self­serving na­
tionalnarratives.Somehighlighttheirciti­
zenswhosavedJews,butignoreoreven
denythemanycasesofthosewhocollabo­
ratedwiththeNazis.
“Holocaustdenialislesscommonto­
day,yetHolocaustdistortionwithitsva­
riousfacesisalarming,”saysHaviDrei­
fuss,a historianatYadVashem.“Oneofits
expressionsistheattemptbysomecoun­
triestoartificiallyincreasetheirnumberof
RighteousamongtheNationsandclaim
thatthesenobleexceptions reflecttheir
entire national story during the Holo­
caust.”YadVashemstressesthatthenum­
berofRighteousGentilesfromanycountry
doesnotnecessarilyreflectanentiresoci­
ety’sconductduringtheHolocaust.
Polandhasthemost(seechart).Thisis
tobeexpected,astheGermandeathcamps

wereinitsoccupiedterritoryandPoland

hadthelargestJewishpopulationinEu­

rope whenthesecondworldwarbegan.

Membersofitscurrentnationalistgovern­

menthavesoughttousethisstatisticto

justifya lawpassedin 2018 criminalising

anyaccusationthatmanyPolescollaborat­

edwiththeNazis.Yetmanydid;therewere

Polishvillainsaswellasvictims.

MorerecentlyUkraine’sJewishpresi­

dent,VolodymyrZelensky,wasrebukedin

Israelafterhisspeechtoitsparliament.

Calling for Israel to back his country

againstRussia,heemphasisedUkrainians

whosavedJewsintheHolocaustbutig­

noredthosewhoco­operatedwithHitler.

AfterVladimirPutininvadedUkraine in

Februaryonthepretextof“denazifying”its

government,YadVashemcondemnedRus­

siafor“trivialisinganddistortingthehis­

toricalfactsoftheHolocaust”.

Some Israeli politicians have also

soughttousetheHolocaustfortheirown

cause.Whenhewasprimeminister,Binya­

minNetanyahuwoulduseHolocaustMar­

tyrs’ and Heroes’ Remembrance Day,

marked everyyearafterPassover, to in­

veighagainstthreatstoJewsfromIranand

radicalIslam.Inoneofhisownspeechesat

Yad Vashem, President Reuven Rivlin

warned against the notion that “every

threattoIsraelisexistentialandeveryIsra­

el­hatingleaderisHitler”.Thiswastaken

asa rebuketoMrNetanyahu.MrZelensky

willnotbethelastEuropeanorIsraelilead­

ertofallfoulofHolocausthistorians.n

J ERUSALEM
ThewarinUkrainehasstirredold
argumentsabouthistory

Whence came the righteous?

Number of people recognised for rescuing Jews

in the second world war*, selected countries, ’000

Source: Yad Vashem *Verified data available to Yad Vashem

Russia

Germany

Belarus

Italy

Lithuania

Belgium

Ukraine

France

Netherlands

Poland

8640