160 Sigrid Faath and hanSpeter Mat teS
between conf lict and migration than the Iraq War that commenced in May
2003 and the Libyan civil war between Gaddaf i loyalists and revolutionary
forces from March to October 2011. Since 2012, the conf licts have prolifer-
ated. The internal conf lict in Syria resembles a civil war, producing a stream
of refugees to neighbouring countries. In Yemen the conf lict between gov-
ernment forces and Islamists, including elements of Al-Qaida, is resulting
in internal migration to non-f ighting areas. A similar situation has been
occurring in Sudan since the spring of 2012, when the conf lict over the oil
f ields, in the frontier area, between the forces of Northern Sudan and those
of the newly independent Southern Sudan escalated.
Besides the acute and obvious conf licts – the object of the following
discussion – there are also the many conf lict situations and structural
conditions that lie below the surface and inf luence the migratory behaviour
of the local populations. In particular, the unequal distribution of resources,
primarily oil and natural-gas supplies, the respective policies concerning
the distribution of income from energy exports, and the unsolved problem
of the role of religion in these states, all affect the life quality of the inhabit-
ants and determine, at least in part, whether they seek their livelihood
within or outside the MENA states.^3
This study of the security issues surrounding the MENA states looks
at the present and future conf licts as well as at obvious and less obvious
conf lict structures, and puts them in perspective related to the possible
ensuing migration potential.
5.2 The socio-economic conditions in the MENA states and
migration potential
5.2.1 General remarks
The study entitled Rich and poor states in the Middle East (Kerr & Yassin 1982)
has lost none of its relevance and signif icance since it was f irst published in
- Today, as 30 years ago, the MENA states are inf luenced by the disparity
of the extreme income differences both between the individual countries
and among the individuals of a particular country, the differing productivity
3 The resulting migration may be only temporary or more long-lasting. Examples for tempo-
rary migration are the f light of refugees ahead of f ighting (e.g., the ‘summer war’ in Lebanon in
2006) or temporary work-related migration (e.g., from Egypt to the Arab countries of the Gulf
region).