68 R.G. DEWI ET AL.
Table 4.2 Estimation of scenario quantifi cation for the base (2005) and target
(2030) years
Parameter Base year (2005) BaU 2030^ CM 2030
Energy demand (ktoe) 6672 27,537^ 23,224
- Passenger transport 1701 6875 5235
- Freight transport 625 2403 2194
- Residential 1518 5705 5299
- Industrial 2337 9303 7766
- Commercial 491 3252 2730
Energy demand/capita
(toe/cap)
0.7 2.4 2.0Energy intensity (toe/million
IDR)
14 12 10GDP growth rate 6.5 % 6.9 % 6.9 %
Energy demand growth rate 6.1 % 5.3 %
Energy elasticity 0.9 0.8
CO 2 emission (kton-CO 2 )
- Total sectoral energy 29,992 141,534 115,235
Passenger transport 5272 21,313 13,735
Freight transport 1917 7369 5389
Residential 8834 41,118 36,410
Industrial 8749 35,645 29,288
Commercial 5219 36,089 30,413 - All energy sources 29,992 141,534 115,235
Coal 4 15 13
Oil 10,062 37,349 26,437
Gas 4750 18,763 16,732
Electricity 15,176 85,407 72,053
Carbon intensity - Tons of CO 2 per capita 3 12 10
– Tons of CO 2 per million IDR (^63 60 49)
GHG emissions from the energy sector are determined based on the
magnitude of activities in both the demand and supply sides of the
energy sector and by technology mix approaches used in the sector.
Under the BaU scenario, GHG emissions associated with energy used
on both sides will increase from 30 ktons of CO 2 e (2005) to 143 ktons
of CO 2 e (2030), with major contributors including the power genera-
tion (61 %), transportation (20 %), industrial (14 %), residential (5 %),
and commercial sectors (0.4 %). Under the mitigation scenario, the
GHG emission level will be 26 million tons of CO 2 in 2030, which is