113in Russia, but I think it will come back
into fashion. The overall message will be
that under Putin’s wise leadership, Rus-
sia will become a leading player in world
affairs, with a vibrant economy and so-
cially just society.
Do you think the sanctions will play
any role?
The only role that sanctions could
play would be to make Putin even more
popular. The European Union and the
United States had no choice but to im-
pose sanctions following the annexa-
tion of Crimea and the Russian mili-
tary intervention in eastern Ukraine. But
they mistakenly believed that sanctions
would lead to a softening of Russian pol-
icy. This will not happen. If sanctions
are still in place (and I assume they will
be) they will either have zero effect or
they will make Putin even more popular.
But I think Putin will campaign mainly
on domestic issues, presenting himself
as the Russian people’s problem-solver.Well, he has already been in power for
17 years, was that not enough time to solve
all the problems?
Indeed, but for much of that time he
came across as highly successful. For
example, between 1998 and 2008 Rus-
sians had ten years of 12 per cent annu-
al growth in incomes. Many Russians
see Putin as the guy who delivered. And
although recent years have been diffi-
cult, the Kremlin has been able to shift
responsibility for Russia’s difficulties
onto external factors, such as the glob-
al financial crisis and western sanctions.
But I think Putin realises that the Rus-
sian people can only dine out on glo-
ry for so long. They may enjoy seeing
him embarrass western leaders. But ul-
timately that is not what puts food on
the table or a roof over their heads. Pu-
tin will have to deliver more on the do-
mestic agenda.Tell me a bit about your latest book,
which was just published.
The book is entitled A Wary Embrace
and is about China-Russia relations. Back
in 2008, I wrote a book on the same
subject called Axis of Convenience. At
that time, very few people were writing
about Sino-Russian relations. Over the
past decade, however, it has become a
really hot topic. And some of my origi-Russia is unprepared for the next world order, Interviewer: Adam Reichardt Interviews
Photo: Valdis Kauliņš and The Rīga Conference 2017