The Economist Asia - February 10, 2018

The EconomistFebruary 10th 2018 39

1

O

N THE evening of February 6th the

lights went out across most of Cara-

cas, Venezuela’s capital, justas the city’s

rush hour was beginning. Unable to take

the metro, tens of thousands of workers

were forced to walk the crime-ridden

streets. Many took the power cut as a meta-

phor for the country’s snuffed-out democ-

racy and lost prosperity.

At precisely the same time, Jorge Rodrí-

guez, Venezuela’s expensively dressed

communications minister, wasarriving at

a meeting in the Dominican Republic. He

has been the chief negotiator for the coun-

try’s leftist regime in sporadic talks with

the opposition that have taken place over

the past 16 months. Brandishing a bright

yellow pen he declared that a deal had

been reached. Signing it, he said, was a

mere “formality”.

Anyone credulous enough to believe

him was soon disabused. On February

7th the opposition delegation, led by Julio

Borges, the former head of Venezuela’s par-

liament, made a counter-proposal. It re-

peated a long-standing demand that the

president, Nicolás Maduro, restore the

democratic institutions that he has sub-

verted since taking office in 2013. It called

for establishing an independent electoral

council to replace the current one, which

does the bidding of the “Bolivarian” re-

gime. The opposition also sought the rein-

statement of banned political parties, the

freeing of some 200 political prisoners and

He can count on weak opposition. That

is partly because he has dealt with anyone

who might threaten him by putting them

out of action. Some of the opposition’s

most prominent leaders are under house

arrest, barred from office or in exile. In Jan-

uary, the electoral authority banned the

Democratic Unity roundtable, the co-

alition ofopposition parties, from nomi-

nating a candidate. It also declared that the

two biggest opposition partieshad failed

to register correctly, which disqualifies

them from fielding candidates.

Mr Maduro may nonetheless face a ri-

val or two. Henry Ramos Allup, a veteran

politician, and Henri Falcón, a former ally

of Chávez, have talked of running against

the president. Mr Maduro might not mind.

Some show of opposition would give the

election a gloss of legitimacy. It would fur-

ther split the opposition, which has failed

to choose a single leader in 18 years ofcha-

vista rule. If more than one rival takes Mr

Maduro on, all the better. They would split

the anti-government vote, making it easier

for him to win the one-round election.

He has rushed the election in part to

deny the opposition time to prepare (it

need not be held before December). He

may also be calculating that the economy

will be in even worse shape by then.

Underinvestment and corruption have

broughtPDVSA, the state oil firm, which

provides nearly all of Venezuela’s foreign

income, close to collapse. Its production is

at its lowest level in nearly 30 years. Rating

agencies have declared the company to be

in technical default after it repeatedly paid

late interest on its bonds. Both PDVSAand

Venezuela itself are scheduled to make

$9.5bn in principal and interest payments

this year. An outright default would make

it far more difficult to export oil, and thus to

feed Venezuelans even attoday’ssubsis-

tence level.

access to the media.

Mr Rodríguez refused to look at the doc-

ument. So there was no deal. The talks

were suspended indefinitely. Hourslater

the electoral commission announced that

a presidential election will be held on

April 22nd. Together, the breakdown of the

talks and the setting of the date seem to

dash anylingering hope thatthe election

will be anything other than a fraud.

Perhaps, as the government’s most rad-

ical opponents have long argued, the talks

were doomed from the start. The govern-

ment was never going to allow a fair presi-

dential election. This year the economy

will be a third smaller than it was in 2013,

the year Mr Maduro took over from Hugo

Chávez, the regime’s charismatic founder.

The IMFexpects inflation to be 13,000%.

Food is scarce. The president blames this

mess on malevolent outside powers, such

as the United States. Most Venezuelans

rightly blame him and his government. His

approval rating is around 25%.

With foes like these

Mr Maduro now plans to fight the elections

on the basis of the document his negotia-

tors offered in the Dominican Republic.

That will allow for the presence ofUNelec-

toral observers and a modest reform of the

electoral authority. He will then no doubt

proclaim that he has arranged for the elec-

tion, which will give him a fresh six-year

term in office, to be a fair one.

Venezuela

Lights out for democracy

CARACAS

After the collapse of talks with the opposition, Nicolás Maduro plans for victory in

a rigged election

The Americas

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