The EconomistJanuary 20th 2018 39For daily analysis and debate on the Middle East
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ESPITE his best efforts, when President
Beji Caid Essebsi visited Ettadhamen
(“solidarity”) on January 14th, he did not
engender much harmony. Protests had
broken out a week earlier acrossTunisia,
many of them in places like Ettadhamen, a
working-classsuburb ofTunis, the capital.
Though peaceful during the day, they
turned ugly at night, with rioters burning
police stations and trashing a supermarket.
Hours after Mr Essebsi left Ettadhamen, ri-
ots erupted yet again, leaving the streets
dotted with spent tear-gas canisters.
The unrest was sparked by a package of
tax increases, affecting dozens of consum-
er goods, that took effect on January 1st.
Fuel prices, which are heavily subsidised,
were also raised. The government argues
that it needs to shrink the budget deficit of
6% ofGDP, and that many of the austerity
measures are aimed at the rich—wine
prices, for example, rose sharply. But so did
the prices of basic necessities, such as
bread and phone cards.
Hoping to head off further unrest, the
government announced that it would
spend an extra 100m dinars ($40m) on
welfare payments this year. Pensions are
also set to grow, along with health-care
benefits for the unemployed. Poor families
will receive at least a 20% increase in aid—
though for many, that will mean just $13
more per month. Even the larger stipends
are still below the 240 dinars that econo-
mists call a subsistence monthly wage. “It’s
laughable,” says Sami Bechini, a retired civ-
il servant. “They would need to double myrection (see chart). Asked whether prosper-
ity or democracy was more important, al-
most two-thirds chose the former.
In interviews it is not uncommon to
hear nostalgia—if not for Mr Ben Ali then
for his predecessor, Habib Bourguiba, who
ruled for 30 years until 1987. Many invoke
the memory of the bread riots in the 1980s,
which were caused, like the recent prot-
ests, by a cut in subsidies linked to talks
with the IMF. The riots ended when Bour-
guiba reversed the cut. “The virtue of dicta-
torship is that there’s an authority to the
state. It’s bad, butit works,” says Sihem
Bensedrine, who heads the national truth
and dignity committee. “People think de-
mocracy equals chaos.”
Tunisia held free and fair parliamentary
elections within a year of Mr Ben Ali flee-
ing. Ennahda, an Islamist party, won a plu-
rality in the legislature and formed a co-
alition. Then it did something more
important: it stepped down in 2014 after a
series of political assassinations plunged
the country into crisis. When Nidaa
Tounes, a bloc of secular parties, placed
first in the subsequentelection, Ennahda
joined its coalition. Though Freedom
House downgraded Tunisia in its latest sur-
vey of world liberty, it is the only Arab
country to be rated as “free”.
Rather than advance the democratic
transition, though, political elites are stall-
ing it. Four years after it adopted a new con-
stitution, parliament has yet to appoint a
constitutional court. Lawmakers cannot
agree on which judges to name. Nor has
Tunisia held local elections, originally
planned for 2016 and then postponed four
times. They are now tentatively scheduled
for May. Nidaa Tounes fears a thumping by
the better-organised Ennahda. Both par-
ties have an eye on the national election in- Yet good local governance is vital in a
country with deep disparities between the
impoverished interior and the compara-
tively prosperous coast.
pension for me to feel comfortable.”
Although the concessions failed, coer-
cion was effective. Police arrested more
than 800 people, among them bloggers
and activists, and the army was deployed
in some outlying areas. For now, at least,
the protests have died out. Even at their
peak they drew at most tens of thousands
of supporters. They were a far cry from the
enormous demonstrations that toppled
Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, the longtime dicta-
tor, in 2011. Still, the unrest is a symptom of
a much deeper problem.
Seven years after the revolution, many
Tunisians are losingfaith in a democratic
transition that was meant to bring wider
prosperity. A poll by the International Re-
publican Institute, an American pro-de-
mocracy group, found that most Tunisians
think the country is going in the wrong di-Protests in TunisiaDemocracy and its discontents
ETTADHAMEN
Tunisians are losing faith in the ballot boxMiddle East and Africa
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42 Long walk to financial ruinSomething’s not right hereSource: International Republican InstituteTunisia, “Which direction would you say things
are going in our country overall these days?”
% responding2011 12 13 14 15 16 17020406080100RightWrong