The Economist Asia - 24.02.2018

36 The Americas The EconomistFebruary 24th 2018

1

2 versity of the Andes in Bogotá. That is be-

cause the cocaine trade financed the FARC.

This is stirring up an election season al-

ready roiled by debate over corruption and

the economy. Colombia is to elect a new

congress on March 11th and a new presi-

dent on May 27th. The contests pit suppor-

ters of the peace agreement against its foes.

The agreement is unlikely to be reversed.

So the argument has shifted to proxy is-

sues, including the coca surge. Peace-deal

sceptics cheer on forced eradication; pro-

deal politicians back crop substitution.

Rafael Pardo, the government’s post-

conflict “high commissioner”, thinks peace

is unsustainable unless the government

solves the coca problem. That is not be-

cause the FARCwill return to war, but be-

cause coca crops “will always feed a mar-

ket that is accompanied by violence”, he

says. Small-scale coca-growers, caught be-

tween the security forces and the drug

gangs, are among the most vulnerable to it.

Nowhere is Colombia’s many-sided

drug war more intense than in Tumaco. It

has 23,000 hectares of coca fields, more

than any other municipality. Nariño, the

department of which Tumaco forms a part,

is a focal point of fighting among armed

groups for control of the drug trade. The

government sent 2,000 more troops to Tu-

maco in January to contain the violence.

Under pressure from Colombian vot-

ers, and perhaps the United States, the se-

curity forces uproot fields that are sup-

posed to be set aside for voluntary crop

substitution. Thatprovokes clashes with

small-scale coca-growers. Last year peas-

ants angry about forced eradication

blocked roads in Nariño and other regions

for days. Members of an eradication group

that took off from Tumaco killed seven un-

armed protesters in October.

Since then, riot police have joined the

missions. They are tension-filled. In a Black

I

T TAKES guts to challenge both Andrés

Manuel López Obrador, a messianic, sil-

ver-tongued populist, and the residual

political machine of Mexico’s governing

Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

Ricardo Anaya is as daring as he is ruth-

lessly ambitious. Having forged a co-

alition of his own conservative National

Action Party (PAN) and two small centre-

left outfits, Mr Anaya arguesthat the presi-

dential election on July 1st is now a two-

horse race between himself and AMLO,

as Mexicans call Mr López Obrador, the

long-standing front-runner. Several opin-

ion polls support that contention. The

question that will hang over Mexico dur-

ing the next four months is whether, in his

sharp-elbowed ascent, Mr Anaya has

made too many enemies to unite the dis-

parate majority that dislikesAMLOand

thus win the presidency.

On the face ofthings, this isAMLO’s

election to lose. Mexicans have rarely

been so gloomy or wanted change more.

The PRI government of Enrique Peña

Nieto is unpopular. Although it achieved

important reforms of education and ener-

gy, it has failed in fighting violent crime

and corruption and improving the econ-

omy, the issues that matter most to the

public. When the PANruled Mexico in

2000-12 it didn’t do much better. That

means “there’s less resistance” to AMLO

than in 2006 and 2012 (when he nearly

won the presidency), says Jorge Casta-

ñeda, a former foreign minister.

In those campaigns he ran as a rabble-

rouser bent on returning Mexico to its pro-

tectionist, nationalistpast. His friends in-

sist that he has mellowed. He has made

overtures to business and to Mexico’s

capitalist north. His pledge to review all

contracts issued to private energy compa-

nies doesn’t mean rejecting them, accord-

ing to Alfonso Romo, a businessman from

Monterrey who advises him. Mr Romo

stressesAMLO’s concern for the “forgotten

Mexico” of the poor and the indigenous.

ButAMLOhas also opened his tent to allies

from reactionary, corporatist parts of the

PRI(to which he belonged from 1976 to

1988). He has talked of an amnesty for drug

barons. “He can no longer hold the banner

of fundamental regime change,” says De-

nise Dresser, a political scientist.

Neither can the PRI’s candidate, José

Antonio Meade, a competent and respect-

ed former finance minister who is not a

party member. He makes a virtue of his

lack of a political background. But “the

scale of the well-deserved repudiation” of

Mr Peña makes Mr Meade’s task“impossi-

ble”, says Enrique Krauze, a historian.

It is Mr Anaya who offers the best hope

of defeatingAMLO. He is only 38. With his

crew cut and glasses, he looks like a school

swot. He is a formidable debater and politi-

cal operator who speaks with a laser focus.

“This is a very close election between two

options for change,” he told Bello. “The

question...is what kind of change [Mexi-

cans] want.” AMLOproposes change “with

ideas that are very old, trapped in the past”,

he says, while his own ideal is a modern

democracy open to the world and to new

technology.

For example, AMLOpromises to can-

cel construction of a $13bn airport now

being built near Mexico City. He would re-

verse the education reform, which holds

teachers accountable by evaluations.

AMLOdoesn’t want to turn Mexico into a

Marxist dictatorship like Cuba or Vene-

zuela. But he wants to be friends with

those countries, says Mr Castañeda.

AMLOvows to fight corruption but prom-

ises to slash the salaries of senior officials,

which is a recipe for graft.

Mr Anaya argues that to impose the

rule of law stronger institutions are essen-

tial. He wants the attorney-general’s of-

fice, over which the president has sway, to

be fully autonomous. He would fight

drug gangs with better intelligence. To

tackle poverty he would introduce “grad-

ually” a universal basic income (though

voters might prefer more and better jobs).

Mr Anaya seized control of the PAN

from more experienced rivals and over-

saw its victory in several gubernatorial

elections. He says he doesn’t defend the

mistakes of pastPANpresidents, and any-

way he represents a coalition. Quite how

coherent this coalition of convenience

will prove is an open question.

He faces otherobstacles. His merciless

attacks on the PRIare a double-edged

sword. If Mr Meade has no chance of vic-

tory, “it’s easier forpriistasto go with

AMLOthan thisgüero[fair-haired boy]”,

says Mr Krauze. Mr Anaya’sbiggest diffi-

culty may be that in his single-minded

pursuit of the candidacy he hasalienated

important figures in his own party, start-

ing with Margarita Zavala, the wife of a

former president, who is running as an in-

dependent. To win, Mr Anaya mustbe a

healer as well as a fighter.

Bello Mexico’s young hopeful

Ricardo Anaya offers the best chance of beating Mexico’s left-wing Donald Trump