The Economist Asia Edition - June 09, 2018

The EconomistJune 9th 2018 The Americas 35

2 corruption and is unlikely to be able to run.
Mr Bolsonaro’s closest rival is Ciro
Gomes, a centre-left former governor who
occasionally sounds like a populist. He gets
the support of 11-12% of voters. That would
rise if Lula endorses him. Geraldo Alck-
min, the centrist former governor of the
state of São Paulo, is backed by just 6-7% of
voters. His Facebookpage has 900,000 fol-
lowers, about a sixth of the number that
Mr Bolsonaro’s has.
Mr Alckmin’s supporters argue that he
will do much better than the polls suggest.
His Party of Brazilian Social Democracy
(PSDB) has a large number of seats in con-
gress, which will entitle him to lots of free
advertising time on television and public
money for his campaign. ThePSDBcan add
to that by forming coalitions; last week it
opened negotiations in congress with cen-
tre-right parties. Byearly August, Brazilians
will come to realise that Mr Alckmin, who
trained as an anaesthesiologist, is a “doc-
tor” for the country’s economic and politi-
cal ills, says Luiz Felipe d’Avila, an adviser.
Voters “are more rational than irrational”,
he believes.
The financial markets hope that is true.
Mr Alckmin is the only one of the leading
candidates with any enthusiasm for the
programme of economic reforms begun
by Mr Temer, which helped pull Brazil out
of its worst-ever recession. Mr Temer
pushed through a constitutional amend-
ment to freeze government spending in
real terms and liberalised the labour mar-
ket. But he has failed to curb pension
spending, the main long-termthreat to the
budget. His cave-in on diesel prices will
add to the fiscal burden that the next presi-
dent will inherit. The lorry drivers have
made it more urgent that Brazil elect a re-
former as president in October. They have
also made that less likely. 7

W

HEN María Florencia Alcaraz discov-

ered that she was pregnant in 2015

she was unprepared for motherhood. The

contraceptives she was taking hadn’t

worked. Aged 30, she was employed as a

journalist in the justice ministry. With a

general election in the offing she worried

that she would lose her job under a new

government. Unable to end the pregnancy

legally in Argentina, she turned to friends

for advice. One gave her misoprostol, a

stomach-ulcer drug often used to induce

abortions. At 13 weeks into her pregnancy

she popped the pills alone at home and

spent a day in bed. The DIYabortion gave

her “a sense of relief and autonomy”, she

recalls.

Like many countries in Latin America,

where mores have been shaped by the

Catholic church, Argentina outlaws most

abortions (see map). Women who un-

dergo them can be jailed for four years (or

longer if the babyis deemed to be viable

outside the womb). The law makes excep-

tions for pregnancies that are the result of

rape or that endanger the mother’s health

or for fetuses that are malformed. Despite

Argentina’s restrictive rule, nearly a half-

million abortions a year take place there,

say campaigners for less restrictive laws.

On June 13th the lower house of Argen-

tina’s congress will vote on a bill to legalise

elective abortions within the first 14 weeks

of gestation. A Yes vote, followed by ap-

proval in the senate, would have repercus-

sions beyond Argentina. Elective abortion

is now legal for just 3% of women in Latin

America and the Caribbean. If Argentina

votes to allow it, that will rise to 10%. Wom-

en from neighbouring countries might

come to Argentina for abortions. Other

countries might follow Argentina’s lead.

In practice, Argentina has a two-tiered

abortion regime. Rich and middle-class

women can get relatively safe (but illegal)

abortions by taking misoprostol, which

costs about 2,800 pesos ($112). Although

prescriptions can be hard to get, instruc-

tions are available on the internet. Women

who want a surgical abortion, which

causes less bleeding, can usually find priv-

ate doctors willing to perform them. That

can cost $1,000—far more than most poor

women can pay. Even misoprostol may be

out of their reach, especially for teenagers

or for women whose husbands or boy-

friends control the cash. Some resort to

backstreet abortions or unsafe medication

sold online. Argentina’s health ministry

counted 31 deaths from abortions in 2016,

which may be an underestimate.

The biggest problem for many comes

after the procedure. Whereas rich women

can go to their doctors if something goes

wrong, the poor must seek treatment in

public hospitals, where staff might report

them to the police. In 2014, the latest year

for which official figures are available,

47,000 women were hospitalised for com-

plications. Although the vast majority are

treated and sent home, a few high-profile

punishments have frightened many wom-

en. In 2016 a 27-year-old woman who mis-

carried was sentenced to eight years in pri-

son for murder after hospital staff accused

her of inducing an abortion. Her convic-

tion was overturned on appeal.

Tragedies and injustices have changed

Argentines’ conservative attitudes towards

abortion, says Maxine Molyneux, a sociol-

ogist at University College London. In

2004 two-thirds of Argentines opposed

liberalising the law. According to a poll

published in March this year, the same pro-

portion now favour legalisation.

Feminist groups such as Ni Una Menos

(Not One Less), formed in 2015, have cam-

paigned with increasing vigour against do-

mestic violence and the macho culture

that encourages it. That has spilled over

into demands for more liberal abortion

laws. A younger generation of women has

helped that cause. On this year’s Interna-

tional Women’s Day, March 8th, tens of

thousands of women wearing green

scarves, many of them teenagers, marched

in support of legislation. “Get your rosaries

off our ovaries”, their banners demanded.

The same month a smaller crowd respond-

ed by carrying a huge papier mâché fetus

through the centre of Buenos Aires, chant-

ing “yes to life, no to abortion”.

Congressional opinion has not shifted

as much as voters’ attitudes have. The vote

in the lower house is expected to be very

close. If the measure passes, it will move

on to the senate, where most legislators

have already said they will vote against it.

Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri,

who is personally against liberalisation,

says legislators should vote according to

their consciences. He says he will not veto

a law that loosens restrictions. Even if the

measure fails, campaigners believe that le-

galisation will soon happen. “It’s inevita-

ble,” says Sabrina Cartabia, a pro-choice

activist. “The country has moved on.” 7

Argentina

Of rosaries and

ovaries

BUENOS AIRES

If the country does not make elective

abortions legal now, it may do so soon

URUGUAY

ARGENTINA

CHILE PARAGUAY

ECUADOR

PANAMA

BRAZIL

SURINAME

GUYANA

BOLIVIA

PERU

COLOMBIA

CUBA

HAITI

JAMAICA

DOM. REP.

Antigua & Barbuda

Dominica

St Lucia

St Kitts & Nevis

Barbados

Grenada

Trinidad & Tobago

St Vincent &

the Grenadines

VENEZUELA

Abortion laws, 2018

Permitted

in cases of incest

in cases of rape

within national

gestational limit

and on socio-economic grounds

(eg, economic resources, age

or marital status)

and to preserve a woman’s health

to save a woman’s life

Source: Centre for Reproductive Rights

Prohibited, except