The Economist - USA (2022-05-21)

36 Asia TheEconomistMay21st 2022

versity in Mandalay, Myanmar’s secondci­

ty,  branded  seven  students  who  attended

their graduation ceremony as “traitors”.

Those who do not abide by the instruc­

tions of the resistance may be at riskofre­

prisals.  People’s  Defence  Forces  (pdfs),

guerrilla outfits that are loyal to theshad­

ow government though not under itscom­

mand,  mostly  target  government  offices

and  army  checkpoints.  But  they  havealso

hit  civilian  structures  (which  violatesthe

nug’s  code  of  conduct).  When  the junta

tried to reopen schools last June, guerrillas

planted bombs at scores of them, hopingto

kill the soldiers stationed there. Anyinter­

action  with  the  regime  is  risky,  no  matter

how innocent the reason. “If a pdfseesyou

talking  to  a  township  administrator[alo­

cal government official], even if the workis

to help communities, they could reactina

very negative way,” says the local bossofan

international agency. 

Some  expectations  held  by  theresis­

tance  and  its  supporters  are  unrealistic.

Businesses  cannot  refuse  to  pay  tax.“It’s

not about political legitimation, it’sabout

rule of law,” says an analyst based inMyan­

mar. The head of the international agency

says that it stopped working with thegov­

ernment after the coup, but does informit

of  its  activities.  Otherwise,  he  says, it

might get thrown out of the country.Still,

two big international donors have stopped

funding  his  agency,  because  sponsoring

development projects in Myanmar hasbe­

come politically unpalatable. 

Zeya  Thu  (not  his  real  name  andsome

details have been changed) works ata mi­

crofinance  company  which  lends  topoor

households.  Friends  who  have  leftMyan­

mar since the coup, he says, accuse himof

“being a supporter of the military”, because

his  company  regularly  meets  officialsat

the central bank. “I’m helping poor people

here,”  he  says,  “but  they  say  helpingthe

poor is helping the military.” 

The  resistance  believes  that  working­

class  people  “will  voluntarily  embraceto­

tal deprivation”, says Mr Min Zin. Yetthis,

too,  is  an  impossible  ask.  The  numberof

strikers has declined by more than half,be­

cause  many  can  no  longer  afford  tostay

away from work. (Some others wereforced

to  return  by  the  junta.)  The  zealousness

with  which  activists,  who  are  oftenmid­

dle­class, attack those who give in mayend

up sapping enthusiasm for their cause.

Ms Moe Moe remains an ardent suppor­

ter of the nug, yet she is now more fright­

ened of her fellow resisters than of thear­

my. That is extraordinary, given that thear­

my  routinely  slaughters  civilians, razes

villages,  tortures  prisoners  and rapes

women. “I have managed to hide fromthe

military all this time,” she explains.“Butit

is really hard to evade the spotlightofthe

people, of the community around me.”n

Myanmar’scivilwar(2)

PasstheKool-Aid

T

o spendtimeonBurmesesocialmedia

oronlinenewssitesistothinktheend

is near for Myanmar’s military junta,

whichseizedpowerina couplastFebruary.

Resistance groups,it would appear, are

slaughteringthearmy’smenandoccupy­

ingthecountryside.Theregimeisseem­

inglystrugglingtoconductbasicadminis­

trative tasksorsecureanyinternational

recognition. The underground National

UnityGovernment(nug), whichleadsthe

resistance,saidlastmonththatanti­junta

forcescontrolhalfthecountry’sterritory.

Defectorstalkofa crisisofmoraleinthe

armedforces.

Butpeerpastthevirtualfog,anda far

bleakerpictureemerges.Althoughitcan

barelykeepthelightsoninYangon,the

commercial capital, the junta controls

Myanmar’scitiesandmostofitsnaturalre­

sources,includingminescontainingthe

world’sfinestjade.Chinarecentlyhosted

its foreign minister. Armed anti­regime

groupsarefragmented,withuptoa dozen

ina singledistrict.Apaucityofweapons

hasleftthemunabletogobeyondguerrilla

ambushesandassassinations.

Bajar,thenomdeguerreofa memberof

ananti­regimemilitiainthearidcentral

regionofSagaing,sayshisgroupcanarm

only20%ofits2,000menusingpublicdo­

nations.Hesaysgroupslikehiscommand

halfofhistownship’sruralhinterland,but

thisholdsonlysolongasthejunta’ssol­

diersstayintheirurbanbases.“Iftheyad­

vance,wehavetoretreatandcomeback

whentheyleave,”hesays.

Theseadvanceshavebeenregularand

devastating.InSagaingalone,juntaforces

haveburntdownmorethan7,500houses,

accordingtoDataforMyanmar,a monitor­

inggroup.Morethan230,000peopleinthe

regionhavebeendisplaced,reckonsthe

un. Aresidentoftheareasays that,al­

thougharesistancegroupnowrunsher

village,it“can’tprotectthevillagersbe­

causeit hassofewweapons”.

Despitethisbrutaltoll,Myanmar’sre­

belsmaintainanupbeatmessagethatBur­

mese media are quick to amplify,with

headlinessuchas“Myanmarcoupleader

reveals his desperation”. Many ofthese

outletsreproducetheclaimsofresistance

groups.Theirnarrativeofimminentvicto­

ryisembracedonsocialmedia.

“We’renotgettingthefullstoryfrom

thelocalmedia,whooftenaren’treporting

thedefeats,”saysa Burmesejournalistwho

goesbyCapeDiamond,a pseudonym.Me­

diaoutletsareunabletosendreportersto

findoutfactsontheground.Thisispartly

becausejournalistsriskarrest,orworse,if

theytrytoworkopenly.“Instead,theyrely

oncitizenjournalistsandlocalswhoare

alsorevolutionaries,”hesays.Evenprofes­

sionaljournalistsfindithardtobeobjec­

tiveinthefaceofthejunta’sviolenceand

oppression.They“wanttousetheirpenfor

therevolution”,saysMrDiamond.

These outletsarealsocounteringthe

liesandfantasiesoftheregime.General

MinAungHlaing,thecountry’sdefacto

leader,heraldeda“yearofpeace”during

Thingyan,Myanmar’straditionalnewyear

festival, last month. He then launched

peacetalkswithseverallong­established

ethnicrebelgroupsbasedalongtheThai

andChineseborders,noneofwhichisac­

tuallyfightingtheregimeatthemoment.

Junta­controlledstatemedia depicta

countryofbustlingmarkets,joyful Bud­

dhist festivals and farmers producing

bumpercrops,disturbedonlybya fewiso­

lated “terrorist” attacks. In the second

weekofMay,whenthearmedforcesspent

eachdaytorchingvillagesandmurdering

civilians,GlobalNewLightofMyanmar, a

state­rundaily,ranfrontpageson“virgin

islands”ripefortourism,theannualmi­

grationofbirdsandthecultivationofele­

phantyams—“agiftofnature”.

ThedifferenceisthatfewBurmeseac­

ceptthejunta’sotherworldly fakenews,

whilemanyareeagertobelievethatthere­

sistanceisclosetovictory.Yetself­decep­

tionisa poormilitarystrategy.“Ifyouwant

towin,”saysMrDiamond,“you’vegotto

keepyoureyesopen.”n

C HIANGMAI

Theresistancemovementisatrisk

ofbelievingitsownpropaganda

Bayof

Bengal

Irrawaddy

Chin

Kachin

Kayah

Kayin

Magway

Mandalay

Sittwe

Mon

Naypyidaw

Rakhine

Sagaing

Shan

Yangon

Bago

INDIA

BANGLADESH

CHINA

THAILAND

MYANMAR

LAOS

Chiang

Mai

Ta

nin

th

ary

i

Pre-coupmilitiapresence

Selectedgroups

ArakanArmy

KarenNational

LiberationArmy

KachinIndependenceArmy

Other

Sources:InternationalCrisis

Group;TheAsiaFoundation

200 km