in next week’s midterms. If that happens,
Iran would be likely to struggle through until
having the last laugh if Trump failed to win
again in 2020.
In the meantime, Iran can take com-
fort that the neocons are also in a terrible
muddle. Their support for Israel remains
steadfast. But they are calling for sanctions
against Saudi Arabia in the wake of the
Khashoggi affair, criticising Trump for not
imposing tough enough sanctions on Iran,
and pissing off pretty much every othercountry by insisting that they reduce Iranian
oil imports to zero or likewise face sanctions.
It’s classic imperial hubris. The fact is that
no one but Israel is any longer willing to go
along with this irrational, decades-long anti-
Iran vendetta on the part of America, and
renewed sanctions are therefore unlikely to
have their desired effect.
Trump wants Saudi Arabia and Russia to
increase their own exports to help make up
for the deficit caused by reduced Iranian out-
put, but analysts are doubtful that Saudi Ara-
bia has the capacity or that Russia — Iran’s
ally — has the political will. The list of otherThursday 6 December 2018
St Bride’s Church, Fleet Street,
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http://www.spectator.co.uk/carolservice | 020 7961 0044Receive a complimentary ticket to the carol service when you subscribe
to The Spectator from just £12. Go to http://www.spectator.co.uk/carolsThe fact is no one but Israel is
willing to go along with this irrational
anti-Iran vendetta any longervey last week also made for sober reading.
Only 37 per cent of Americans now consider
Israel to be an ally, a figure that plummets
to 25 per cent for those between 18 and 29.
Small wonder that in recent months
Iran’s political and religious elites have
toned down their usually apocalyptic war
rhetoric. They have reason to be smugly
elated at how the Saudis especially need
no help in digging themselves into an ever
deeper hole. The latter now have such lit-
tle credibility on the world stage that when
the kingdom’s Foreign Minister Adel Al-
Jubeir last week declared Saudi Arabia to
be a ‘ beacon of light’ fighting ‘dark’ Iran, the
entire civilised world fell off its metaphori-
cal chair clutching its sides in laughter.
Trump’s base remains as loyal to Isra-
el as it is hostile to Iran, and he is no dif-
ferent from previous presidents in that his
overarching concern in the Middle East is
always the Jewish state’s security (and is
the real reason for containing Iran). And
when it comes to domestic American pol-
itics, the issue might be a moot point. The
Iranian hostage crisis and 9/11 were anoma-
lies: Americans do not decide who to vote
for based on foreign policy.
It’s also true, however, that Trump’s
hand would be much weaker when dealing
with Iran if the (pro-nuclear treaty) Demo-
crats take back the House and/or the Senate
countries seeking to waive sanctions for their
major oil companies on the grounds of eco-
nomic necessity (or, as with India, ignoring
the threat of reprisals) is growing by the day.
Already Trump has reportedly backed
down under pressure from the EU from a
requirement that Iran be suspended from
the international bank transfer system
known as SWIFT. Back in August, the EU
banned its companies from complying with
renewed US sanctions on Iran. Notwith-
standing that Denmark, Sweden and France
are currently in a diplomatic spat with Iran,
accusing the regime of sending its own oper-
atives to assassinate exiled Iranian dissidents
in Europe, as an economic bloc the EU con-
tinues to eye billions of dollars worth of
trade deals with the country. Perhaps most
crucially, Turkey — which imports more than
half of its oil from Iran — is also seeking a
waiver, as it continues to exploit the fact it
has audio and visual evidence of Khashog-
gi’s killing. If this were released, the ensuing
turmoil would force the resignation of Saudi
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Few would envy Washington’s dilemma,
then, as it weighs whether to call the Turk-
ish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s bluff.
But it’s also increasingly clear that fewer still
would be anything other than elated to wit-
ness this vindictive anti-Iran policy come
back to haunt those who devised it.