28 The Economist May 28th 2022
Europe
ThewarinUkraineWhen and how might the fighting end?
T
he war in Ukraine, says its president,
Volodymyr Zelensky, will be won on
the battlefield but can end only through
negotiations. When to stop fighting, and
on what terms? The West says that is for
Ukraine to decide. Yet three months into
the war, Western countries are staking out
positions on the endgame.
They are splitting into two broad
camps, explains Ivan Krastev, of the Centre
for Liberal Strategies, a think-tank in Sofia.
One is the “peace party”, which wants a halt
to the fighting and the start of negotiations
as soon as possible. The other is the “jus-
tice party”, which thinks Russia must be
made to pay dearly for its aggression.
The argument turns in the first instance
on territory: let Russia hold on to the land
it has conquered thus far; push it back to its
starting line on February 24th; or try to
shove it even farther back, to the interna-
tional border, to recover territories it
seized in 2014? The debate revolves around
much else besides, not least the costs, risks
and rewards of prolonging the war; and the
place of Russia in the European order.The peace camp is mobilising. Germany
has called for a ceasefire; Italy is circulat-
ing a four-track plan for a political settle-
ment; France speaks of a future peace deal
without “humiliation” for Russia. Ranged
against them stand mainly Poland and the
Baltic states, championed by Britain.
What of America? Ukraine’s most im-
portant backer has yet to set out a clear ob-
jective, beyond strengthening Ukraine to
give it a stronger bargaining hand. America
has spent nearly $14bn on the war so far,
and Congress has just allocated a further
$40bn. America has rallied military dona-
tions from more than 40 other countries.
But this help is not unlimited. It has deli-
vered artillery, but not the longer-range
rocket systems that Ukraine is asking for.
Remarks by Lloyd Austin, America’s de-
fence secretary, add to the ambiguity. After
visiting Kyiv last month he embraced the
justice party, saying the West should help
Ukraine “win” and “weaken” Russia. Three
weeks later he seemed to tack to the peace
camp, calling for an “immediate ceasefire”
following a phone call with his Russiancounterpart, Sergei Shoigu. The Pentagon
insists there is no change of policy.
Another blow to the justice party was an
editorial in theNew York Timesarguing
that the defeat of Russia was unrealistic
and dangerous. Then Henry Kissinger, a
former secretary of state, said negotiations
should start within two months to avoid
“upheavals and tensions that will not be
easily overcome”. There would ideally be a
return to the line of February 24th; “pursu-
ing the war beyond that point would not be
about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new
war against Russia itself,” he declared at
the World Economic Forum, a talkfest in
Davos. Russia, he said, had an important
role to play in Europe’s balance of power; it
should not be pushed into a “permanent
alliance” with China.
For now, such cracks in the West are
contained by the mantra that the future is
for Ukrainians to decide. Yet Ukraine’s
choices are in turn shaped by what the
West will provide. “Europe, the world at
large, should be united. We are as strong as
you are united,” Mr Zelensky told a meet-
ing at Davos. He said that “Ukraine will be
fighting until it gains all its territory back.”
But he also seemed to leave himself space
for compromise. Talks with Russia, he
said, could begin once it withdraws to the
line of February 24th.
America, Europe and Ukraine have to
keep adjusting their positions according to
what each thinks the other will accept.
“The Ukrainians are negotiating with theirK YIV AND WASHINGTON, DC
Western allies are starting to split over the endgame, though neither side
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