Flight international

ightglobal.com 15-21 August 2017 | Flight International | 23

ANALYSIS

amounts to mass production for their new nar-
rowbody iterations.
In any case, during the coming year we can
expect the 787 to leap ahead of the out-of-
production 717 and 757. And it will come
within a hundred units or so of the oldest of
Boeing’s 737 iterations – assuming that
group’s in-service numbers continue to de-
cline at a steady rate.
Looking beyond specific aircraft types, 10-
year trends in orders and fleet distribution are
illuminating. That the global order backlog
has grown by 65% since 2008, to 14,557 air-
craft, is no surprise, given the longstanding
drumbeat of big-order news. It is also not sur-
prising – however notable – that the backlog
peaked two years ago.
More interesting is the fact that while much
aerospace industry attention has been paid to
the Asia-Pacific region, it does not lead the
backlog growth league table. That distinction
falls to North America, where 69% growth
over the decade has outstripped the industry
as a whole. In second place is Europe, fol-
lowed by Latin America, leaving Asia-Pacific
in fourth place.

CHINA RISING
The story is filled out with a look at the 10-
year trend for the in-service fleet. North
America’s mere 3% growth points to orders
for new aircraft being replacement demand.
Europe – up 12% – has seen a bit more fleet
growth but, still, mostly replacement. Asia-
Pacific and the Middle East – fleet growth of
70% and 73%, respectively – show what
happens when a small base is combined
with stellar demand growth.
But nothing is well-defined without con-
sidering China on its own. There, the order
backlog has remained fairly stable over the
past decade – while the in-service fleet has
nearly trebled.
Indeed, the newly published 2017-2036
Flight Fleet Forecast from Flight Ascend Con-
sultancy points to nothing short of explosive
growth in China, where the airline fleet is ex-
pected to grow by 6.1% annually, to 9,600
aircraft in 2036. About 96% of the Chinese
fleet is currently used in the passenger market
and 4% is used for carrying cargo; this share
will rise by 3 percentage points for cargo by
2036 thanks to strong e-commerce growth.
China’s fleet is forecast to account for 19%
of the global total by the end of the 20-year
forecast period, from 11% at the end of 2016.
As for deliveries, China is forecast to take
8,165 new aircraft in the next 20 years, with a
value of $572 billion, including some 7,825
passenger jets, 250 passenger turboprops and
90 freighters. This will include 5,610 passen-
ger single-aisle types and 1,680 twin-aisle
types. These deliveries are predicted to repre-
sent a 19% share of the global total and will

average some 450 per year by the 2030s.

Flight Ascend expects just over 70% of the

current China fleet to be retired during the pe-

riod, but some three quarters of deliveries are

for growth. China will also take over 560

freighter conversions.

In order to cope with the traffic growth led

by China’s growing middle class, interna-

tional routes are increasing and some 130

new domestic airports are being built in

small/medium-sized cities over the next 10

years. The passenger jet fleet is therefore

forecast to grow from some 2,775 today to

more than 8,600 in 20 years’ time.

Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle EastNorth AmericaUnknown area

Units

Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer (10 July 2017)

Airbus/Boeing commercial order backlog by region

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Airbus Boeing

❯❯

North America Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East Africa

Units

Airliner in-service fleet distribution 2008-2017

Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jul-17

Units

Order backlog 2008-2017

Source: Flight Fleets Analyzer

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jul-17

North America Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East Africa Unassigned