The Globe and Mail - 06.11.2019

A14 O THEGLOBEANDMAIL| WEDNESDAY,NOVEMBER6,

EDITORIAL

PHILLIPCRAWLEY

PUBLISHERANDCEO

DAVIDWALMSLEY

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

L

ast month’s election revealed a Conservative Party

with more conceptual flaws than New Coke.

As we detailed in three previous editorials, it has a

popularity defect, because beyond its rock-solid base, few

other Canadians are willing to consider giving it their sup-

port. It has a demographic deficiency, in that it risks becom-

ing the party of a rural, shrinking Canada, not the growing

and increasingly diverse urban and suburban parts of the

country. And it has an environmental flaw, in that its climate-

change plan is more denial than action.

And then there’s the Conservative budget arithmetic.

One of Tory Leader Andrew Scheer’s most repeated elec-

tion messages was that, under Prime Minister Justin Tru-

deau, deficits are out of control, the national debt is skyrock-

eting and the country’s fiscal future is imperiled. Paired with

that was the implication that Ottawa has to get smaller.

The question of the right sizeof government, and how

much it should or should not do, is a matter of opinion.

Reasonable people can disagree. Questions about Canada’s

deficits and debts, however, including their size and whether

they’re rising or falling, are quantifiable. It’s just math. And

the Conservative math on federal deficits and debt simply

doesn’t add up.

Over the past four years, Ottawa’s deficits were small

enough that the federal level of indebtedness, already low

compared with Canada’s peers, fell further. And the Liberal

platform promises four more years of deficits small enough

to keep the level of debt on a downward slope. Ottawa’s fiscal

house was in good shape in 2015. It’s in slightly better shape

in 2019. And if the Liberals are true to their plans, it will be in

slightly better health in 2023.

The Liberals have practised fiscal prudence, defined as a

deficit that is small enough – 1 per cent of gross domestic

product or less – for Ottawa’s relative debt, measured by the

debt-to-GDP ratio, to decline or remain stable. It’s an ap-

proach most economists are comfortable with.

The Conservative touchstone of fiscal probity, in contrast,

is a balanced budget. A government spending no more than

it takes in, and never borrowing against the future, feels right

to a lot of voters. But in a time of extremely low interest rates,

the benefits of this much harder version of fiscal prudence

are few and the costs are high. To close the budget gap – a

budget gap that is small enough tonot need closing– govern-

ment either has to raise taxes or, since it’s the Conservatives

we’re talking about, cut spending.

In Election 2019, both Liberals and Conservatives put for-

ward plans that would lower Ottawa’s debt level. And both

promised lower taxes. But the Liberals also put forward sig-

nificant new program spending, while the Conservatives had

to pencil in significant spending cuts.

Conservatives understandably tried to avoid talking about

those cuts. Liberals, understandably, couldn’t stop talking

about them.

That’s why, when Mr. Scheer released his platform’s cost-

ing details, he did so on the Friday afternoon of the Thanks-

giving long weekend. He hoped any discussion of the cuts

would make like Doug Ford and go away until after the vote.

The Conservative platform may have gone slow on achiev-

ing a balanced budget, not reaching it until five years out, but

the difference between the Liberal and Conservative defini-

tions of fiscal prudence is worth tens of billions of dollars

over the lifetime of a government. Liberal budgetswill have

those billions. Conservative shadow budgets don’t.

For example, the Liberal platform has a $21-billion deficit

in 2023-24, while the Conservatives promised a $4.8-billion

deficit. The difference is theConservatives offering agovern-

ment roughly $16-billion smaller than the Liberals.

A lot of Canadians are opento the idea of smallergovern-

ment in the abstract. But its fact, unless introduced thought-

fully and delicately, tends to be somewhat less popular. (See:

Ford, Doug.) That’s because, althoughgovernment always

contains some inefficiency, waste and corruption, what it

mostly does is fund programs, such as health care, or transfer

money to people, from Old Age Security to the Canada Child

Benefit.

The Conservatives motivated their base with a constant

refrain about out-of-control deficits. But as a result, they end-

ed up having no choice but to promise major spending cuts –

giving credence to Liberal attacks and disqualifying them-

selves with too many voters.

Adeficitof

Conservative

budgetmath

PLEASEDON’TGO

Re May Steps Down As Green Par-

ty Leader (Nov. 5): The resigna-

tion of Elizabeth May as Green

Party Leader should be a sad day

for all Canadians.

I believe Ms. May was truly

someone rare: a party leader who

didn’t insult our intelligence. Her

crusade has been long, from op-

posing then-New Brunswick pre-

mier Richard Hatfield’s decision

to spray insecticide on millions of

acres of land infested with spruce

budworm, to eventually serving

the country as an MP and leader

of her party. She has shown her-

self to be a politician dedicated to

the greater good. It’s going to be

difficult to mark my ballot now

that she’s gone.

MosesWuggenigToronto

Being a prophet is often a lonely,

thankless job, regardless of

whether you are calling for cli-

mate action as Green Party leader

or a Swedish teenager. I would

like to thank Elizabeth May for

her years of leadership. I am hap-

py that she is not retiring.

RichardGroverWinnipeg

ETHICALFINANCE?

Re RBC Part Of Aramco IPO De-

spite Saudi Diplomatic, Trade

Rifts With Canada (Report On

Business, Nov. 5): Royal Bank of

Canada has long held itself as a

paragon of virtue in finance and

commerce. How disappointing it

seems, then, that RBC will be part

of the underwriting group for

Saudi Aramco.

Andrew Bishop of Signum

Global believes this IPO is “simply

too important to politicize with

petty squabbles.” Is the murder of

journalist Jamal Khashoggi

among those petty squabbles?

W.SelbyMartinToronto

OFIMPORT

Re Ottawa To Decide On Alberta,

Ontario Proposed Carbon Pricing

Plans By End Of Year (Oct. 31):

With about 98 per cent of carbon

emissions still arising outside

Canada, a federal carbon tax

could worsen the climate. The

price of Canadian manufacturing

would likely rise and consumers

may turn to cheaper, imported

goods – goods that may be pro-

duced in countries with higher

levels of pollution.

There is one way to combat this

side effect of carbon pricing: high-

er targeted tariffs. This would lev-

el the playing field for energy pro-

ducers, and place an onus on con-

sumers who would still prefer im-

ported goods with larger carbon

footprints. Does Canada have

what it takes to grab the climate

bull by the horns by imposing

such tariffs?

SantBawaEdmonton

COMMONWEALTH

Re Lost Years Of U.K.’s Long Good-

bye Likely A Foretaste Of A

Drawn-out Decline (Report On

Business, Nov. 2): Columnist Eric

Reguly warns that if socialist Jere-

my Corbyn becomes the prime

minister in Britain’s December

election, he would engage in

“mass nationalizations of trains,

water and other utilities.” If that

happens, Britain will find itself in

the same shape as ... Canada?

MichaelPoultonHalifax

VIEWSONTURKEY

Re For Civilians In Northern Syria,

There Is No Escape (Nov. 1): Tur-

key deeply sympathizes with the

suffering of all civilians in Syria,

and my country is not trying to

block asylum seekers.

Since the Syrian civil war start-

ed, Turkey has taken in 3.65 mil-

lion refugees at an expense of

$50-billion. This is a huge burden

on our budget, education, health

and social structures. Still, it is our

humanitarian duty to look after

our neighbours in their difficult

hour, and we will continue to do

so as long as it is necessary.

We are also doing our best to

stabilize the country. The first

meeting of a Syrian constitutional

committee was recently held in

Geneva, under the auspices of the

United Nations and with our en-

couragement through the Astana

Process. Previously, operations

Euphrates Shield and Olive

Branch help created 4,000 square

kilometres of secure land. Now,

through Operation Peace Spring,

we are trying to create more safe

conditions for the voluntary re-

turn of displaced Syrians.

KerimUras

Ambassador of Turkey to Canada,

Ottawa

Re One Nation, Under Turkey

(Opinion, Nov. 2): In discussing

the history of Turkey in the con-

text of its current war on the

Kurds, I believe contributor Cinar

Kiper correctly warns against the

government’s campaign to make

Turkey “more religious and more

anti-Western.”

However, another significant

threat should be noted: genocide.

While Mr. Kiper mentions the

Turkish War of Independence,

“waged mostly against the

Greeks,” there were many other

victims – especially Armenians.

These victims were highlighted

last week when the U.S. House of

Representatives voted over-

whelmingly to formally recognize

the 1915 mass killings of an esti-

mated 1.5 million Armenians by

the Ottoman Empire as genocide.

Given the U.S. abandonment of

its Kurdish allies in Syria, the in-

ternational community should

stand with the Kurds in this dan-

gerous moment.

PeterProntzos

Professor emeritus, political science,

Langara College, Vancouver

READINGLIST

Re Goodbye F. Scott Fitzgerald,

Hello Rita Joe: Thunder Bay’s

Schools Introduce Indigenous

Stories Into Classes (Oct. 29): As a

retired English teacher, I have ob-

served with interest the recent

moves by various Ontario school

boards toward Indigenous works,

and away from Shakespeare and

other foundational authors of the

Western canon. In response, I of-

fer the words of Maya Angelou:

“Shakespeare was a black girl.”

The great poet understood the

power of great art to lead humans

to o’erleap the many barriers we

construct. These latest curricu-

lum changes may address current

concerns, but only in the short

run.

Discarding and replacing great

literature should not be the an-

swer; genuine inclusion, driven

by extensive reading and aca-

demic enterprise, should be the

best way to affect positive and

perpetual progress.

AndrewMilner

Peterborough, Ont.

MODERNMEDICINE

Re Help Wanted (Letters, Oct. 31):

The looming tsunami of elderly

patients, in a country sadly short

of geriatric doctors, could be attri-

buted to the excellence of the

Canadian health-care system.

Those of us born in the first half

of the 20th century saw our

grandparents decline and pass

away normally. Well, at least we

thought it was normal for most

people to die at some point. To-

day, when something goes wrong,

we make an appointment and we

get it fixed. The result is an army

of octogenarians dragged kicking

and screaming into their 90s.

In my day, old people died

building schooners in bottles

with tweezers. Today, they die

running marathons. It’s our own

fault. We’re just too dang good at

what we do.

HughMcKechnieNewmarket, Ont.

GIVEORTAKE

Re (Don’t) Turn Back Time (Let-

ters, Nov. 5): I fully support mov-

ing away from changing our

clocks twice a year, but I am

amazed by the intensity of the de-

bate about Daylight Savings Time

versus Standard Time.

Humanity progressed along

with so many compromises; why

doesn’t anyone consider splitting

the difference and setting the

time at Standard Time plus half

an hour?

JohnCihalCalgary

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