The Economist

34 Middle East and Africa The EconomistJuly 21 st 2018

1

2 day in 2016. Competition is getting fierce

though. Qatarand itsally Turkey are build-

ing ports in Sudan. Saudi Arabia is in talks

to set up a naval base in Djibouti. All three

Gulf states are trying to snap up farmland

in east Africa part of a broader effort to se-

cure food supplies for their arid countries.

Emirati-built ports could one day export

crops from Emirati-owned farms.

As the Gulf states move in however

they bringtheir own conflicts to a troubled

region. Qatar helped to end the clashes be-

tween Djibouti and Eritrea and keptpeace-

keepers there for almost a decade. Then

came the bust-up of 2017  when four Arab

states including the UAE imposed an em-

bargo on Qatar. Both Djibouti and Eritrea

sided with the blockading states. Qatar

pulled out its troops and Eritrea soon

seized the disputed territoryfrom Djibouti.

Gulf states could also find themselves

in competition with China. The UAEhopes

to be part of China’s Belt and Road Initia-

tive a scheme to invest hundreds of bil-

lions of dollars in infrastructure such as

roadsand ports. Jebel Ali isthe busiest port

outside Asia and already acts as a hub for

trade with Africa. But China may want to

cut out the middleman. In 2014 Djibouti

tried to toss out DP World. It accused the

firm of paying bribes to secure its Doraleh

concession. Arbitrators in London found

the claim meritless.

In February Djibouti dropped the legal

niceties: it simply seized the port. The gov-

ernment says DP World failed to expand

the port as quickly as promised. Shippers

believe it tookDoraleh asa sop to China to

which it is heavily indebted (see next arti-

cle). In July Djibouti opened the first phase

of a new $ 3. 5 bn free-trade zone set to be

the largest in Africa when it is finished.

Built mostly by state-owned Chinese

firms it sits next to Doraleh. DP World says

the project violates the terms of its conces-

sion and is threatening to sue. The UAE

helped to put Djibouti on the map. Now

ironically it mayfind itselffrozen out. 7

Djibouti in deep water

The risk of relying on Chinese cash

D

JIBOUTI was the last ofEurope’s

African colonies. France clungto this

sliver ofRed Sea coast until 1977 ; even

today it occasionally resembles occupied

territory. In the blacklava desert stands a

hilltop garrison ofthe Foreign Legion.

French tanks trundle alongthe narrow

road to Ethiopia. This whiff ofcolonial-

ism helpsexplain why manyDjiboutians

fret about theirindependence.

China is the country’s biggest investor.

It plans to remake Djibouti as a staging

post on President Xi Jinping’s flagship

Belt and Road Initiative. In the past two

years Beijinghas lent Djibouti some

$ 1. 4 bn more than 75 % ofits GDP. In 2015

the country was Africa’s fifth-biggest

recipient ofChinese credit despite hav-

ingbarely 1 m citizens one ofthe con-

tinent’s smallest populations.

Djibouti’s experience shows how

Chinese cash can transform even the

smallest country. “None ofthis would

have been possible withoutChina” says

Mahamoud Ali Youssouf the foreign

minister. He sniffs at warnings most

recentlyfrom RexTillerson a former

American secretaryofstate that Chinese

deals could undermine sovereignty.

At the end of 2016 China owned 82 %

ofDjibouti’s external debt. The Chinese

ambassadorto Djibouti hastold dip-

lomats privately that China expects to be

repaid in cash or in kind. Manysee the

experience ofSri Lanka whose indebted

government lastyear handed over one of

its ports to China as a troublingpreced-

ent though Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh the

finance minister insists that a debt-for-

equity swap ofthis kind would not apply

to Djibouti. “Our sovereigntyis non-

negotiable” he says.

But some fret that the dependency of

an earlierera has been replaced by a

more subtle kind. “We would really like

to have more than one bigpartner”

admits MrYoussouf. Rents from ports

and militarybases have helped keep

President Ismael Omar Guelleh in power

foralmost 20 years. Opponents say

Chinese largesse has further cemented

his position. “It’s a relationship with the

regime” says DaherAhmed Farah an

opposition leader. “Not the country.”

DJIBOUTI

Deals and debthave remade one ofAfrica’s smallestcountries

Who is in the driver’s seat?

T

HE scene in the centre of Afrin a Kurd-

ish city in north-western Syria hardly

inspires confidence in the future. A de-

stroyed statue ofa mythical Kurdish hero is

a reminder of the plunder of the city after

its capture earlierthis yearbyArab and Tur-

koman rebels backed by Turkish tanks

from Kurdish rebels. The teenage son of

one of the Arab rebels peddles cigarettes a

rifle across his knees. Another rebel directs

traffic. Turkey argues it saved Afrin from

terrorists and boasts of opening schools

and hospitals. Residents are not exactly

brimmingwith gratitude. “The Turkish sol-

diers are behaving decently” says a Kurd-

ish merchant. “But the bearded ones are

big trouble” he adds referring to Islamist

militants. “They’ve stolen so much.”

More than 100  000 civilians and scores

of Kurdish fighters known as the People’s

Protection Units( YPG) fled Afrin when the

Turkish army and its proxies swept in. Tur-

key considers the YPGan extension of the

Kurdistan Workers’ Party ( PKK) which has

fought an insurgencyagainst itforthree de-

cades. The Turks insist they have no plans

to annex Afrin and pledge to withdraw as

soon as Syria’s war ends.

But the changes wrought by the incur-

sion may be hard to undo. Turkish minis-

ters suggested Afrin would become a mag-

net forsome ofthe 400  000 Syrian Kurdish

refugees in their country. However it is

mostly Arabs pouring into the region. (The

YPG has not helped reportedly stopping

displaced Kurds from going home.) During

a tour of the city organised by Turkish au-

thorities your correspondent met refugees

from Ghouta the Damascus suburb

bombed to ruins by Syrian and Russian

warplanes. One wave of human misery

was breakingover another.

Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdo-

Turkey in Syria

You break it you

own it

AFRIN

Turkeyis struggling to keep orderin its

enclave in northern Syria

S Y R I A

IRAQ

Damascus

Ghouta

T U R K E Y

JORDAN

ISRAEL

LEBANON

Med. Sea Aleppo Raqqa

Manbij

Deir ez-Zor

Euphrates

Afrin

Government Islamic

State

Kurds

Rebels

Turkish troops/

rebels

1 00 km

Areas of control

July 16th 2018

Sources: IHS Conflict

Monitor; Institute for

the Study of War