The Economist

The EconomistJuly 21 st 2018 Middle East and Africa 35

1

2 gan does not intend to reverse the tide. He

has threatened to take the war against the

YPGinto otherparts ofSyria. Thisputs him

on a collision course with America which

teamed up with the Kurds against Islamic

State (IS) and still sees them as insurance

against an IS resurgence. (It denies their

links to the PKK.) Mr Erdogan is not per-

suaded. “We have told all our allies and

friends not to stand between us and terro-

rists”he said earlierthisyear. Theprospect

of an escalation is not far-fetched. Insur-

gents allied with Turkey have clashed with

American troops in eastern Syria.

Tensions between the two allies have

recentlyeased. UnderTurkishpressure the

Americans persuaded the YPG to with-

draw from Manbij which the Kurds cap-

tured from IS two years ago. Turkey and

Americaalsoagreedtoco-ordinate patrols.

But Turkeynowsays that unless YPGforces

east ofManbijdisarm itwillbe onlyamat-

ter of time before Turkey attacks the group.

“The plan is for the YPG to go without a

fight but if they want one we will give

them one” says one Turkish diplomat.

But Turkey may have bitten off more

thanit canchew. SecurityinAfrinis getting

worse. A double bombing in June killed

ninepeople. Reports ofinfightingand loot-

ing continue to surface. People in Afrin

chafed under YPG rule a local resident

says but the insurgents who followed are

worse. “The Turks must make these mon-

sters go home.” 7

I

N Arough-and-readychurchinIfo on the

northern fringe of Lagos Prophet Em-

manuel Akanni and Prophetess Foluke

Akanni do extraordinary things. During

moments of religious ecstasy Mr Akanni

receives visions that indicate which of his

congregants are strugglingto conceive chil-

dren. By holding a chicken’s egg over a

woman’s belly he claims to be able to spy

into her womb. Then he uses herbs and

prayers to effect a cure. “There is nothing

God cannotdo” adds Mrs Akanni.

The fertility rate in Nigeria is estimated

to be 5. 4  implyingthat theaverage woman

can expect to have that manychildren dur-

ing her life. Yet many Nigerians experience

infertility. Chelsea Polis of the Guttmacher

Institute a think-tank and her colleagues

estimate that 31 % ofNigerian couplesfailto

conceive a child after 12 months of unpro-

tected sex—a rate at least as high as in the

West. In a country where a woman’s

worth is defined largely in terms of her

ability to bear children there is a growth

market for fertility treatments ofall kinds.

When Richardson Ajayi created the

Bridge Clinic in 1999  in vitro fertilisation

(IVF) was still a novelty in Nigeria. He had

to fly in doctors and send blood samples

abroad for hormone analysis. Today the

technology is widespread and private IVF

Infertility in Nigeria

A bad place to be

barren

LAGOS

Ina countrywithlots ofbabies

infertilitytreatmentis booming

K

ING MOHAMMED VI of Morocco has

had a quiet year. The monarch who

has visited at least 14 African countries

since October 2016  scaled back his travels

after a heart operation in February. But he

still managed to play host to Mali’s prime

minister in March and visit Congo-Brazza-

ville in April. Last month he tookthe Nige-

rian president Muhammadu Buhari on a

motorcade tour of the capital Rabat flat-

teringhim with cheeringspectators.

Like their king Moroccan companies

are also lavishingattention on west Africa.

The African Development Bank estimates

that 85 % of Morocco’s outward foreign di-

rect investment ( FDI) goes to sub-Saharan

Africa. Trade lags behind but this too is

growing. Exports of Moroccan goods to

west Africa tripled from 2006 to 2016. The

king brings large trade delegations on his

marathon African tours usually signing a

raft of deals with his hosts.

Politically it is easier for Morocco to cul-

tivate allies across the Sahara than in its

own neighbourhood; regional integration

in the Maghreb is hampered bya long-run-

ningrivalrywith Algeria. Afterintense lob-

bying Morocco was readmitted to the Afri-

can Union ( AU) last year ending a 32 - year

absence. Morocco had stormed out in 1984

after the AU admitted as a member state

Western Sahara which Morocco says is

part of its territory. With the Economic

Community of West African States ( ECO-

WAS) considering Morocco for member-

ship the charm offensive continues. It has

donated 25  000 tonnes of fertiliser to

Guinea and trained 300 Malian imams.

Economically engagement with west

Africa lets Morocco diversify from its tradi-

tional focus on Europe says Issandr El Am-

rani of the International Crisis Group a

think-tankin Brussels. Even though Moroc-

co has emerged as a low-cost manufactur-

inghub forEuropean firms itsown compa-

nies struggle to compete in Europe. But

theycan thrive in west Africa.

Moroccan banking telephone and in-

surance companies have led the charge. In

2015 theymade up 88 % ofthe country’s FDI

in sub-Saharan Africa. Its three largest

banks have almost a third of the market

share in the eight countries that use the

west African CFA franc. Attijariwafa the

largest has 443 west African branches. Itis-

salat al-Maghreb the country’s largest tele-

coms company generated 43 % of its turn-

over last year from subsidiaries in the

region. Morocco also hopes to host the re-

gional headquarters of Western firms do-

ing business in Africa. It has established a

financial hub in its economic capital Casa-

blanca offering tax breaks as a lure. Mem-

bership of ECOWAS would extend its

reach. Goods exported from Morocco to

other ECOWAS members would be ex-

empt from the bloc’s common tariff.

But Morocco’s bid to join has exposed

the limits of its influence. All seemed well

lastJune when ECOWASagreed “in princi-

ple” to its accession. But west African busi-

nesses were less keen fearing Moroccan

competitors would crush them. Criticism

is loudest in Nigeria ECOWAS’s largest

economy. Many there fret that Morocco

would benefit from freer trade but wriggle

out of other rules like visa-free travel. Its

application now seems stalled. Recent

ECOWAS summits avoided the subject.

The kingdom still hopes to charm its

way in. During Mr Buhari’s recent visit to

Rabat he and the kingagreed to build a gas

pipeline from Nigeria to Morocco. But the

plan has no financing and its feasibility is

open to doubt.

For all the kingdom’s investment in

west Africa ordinary Moroccans aren’t yet

reapingthe benefits. Bankingand telecoms

investments abroad do not generate many

jobs back home. Meanwhile 43 % of the ur-

ban young are said to be unemployed and

the Rif region in the north is restive. Before

planning his next west African tour the

globe-trotting king may need to deal with

domesticconcerns. 7

Morocco’s new friends

Making eyes

across the Sahara

But some neighbours are resisting the

kingdom’s charm

The King and Buhari