What Americans think about politics 227quo at the time of enactment. But these examples do not mean that public opinion is
irrelevant—just that the policy-making process is complex. It is not always possible to
please a majority of citizens. Politicians’ willingness to do so depends on whether the
majority is organized into interest groups, how much they care about the issue (and the
intensity of the opposition), and, most important, the details of their preferences.
More broadly, public opinion exerts a conspicuous influence in widespread areas of
government. We mention this broad influence repeatedly throughout this book. In Chapter
11, we describe how legislators endeavor to determine what their constituents want and
how their constituents will respond to different actions. In Chapter 9, we see how voters
use retrospective evaluations to form opinions about whom to vote for and how candidates
incorporate the public’s views into campaign platforms that will attract widespread
support. And in Chapter 8, we discuss how voters use candidates’ party affiliations like
brand names to determine how candidates will behave if elected. Scholars have found
that congressional actions on a wide range of issues, from votes on defense policy to the
confirmation of Supreme Court nominees, are shaped by constituent opinion.^51 Moreover,
careful analysis of the connection between opinions and actions shows that this linkage
does not exist because politicians are able to shape public opinion in line with what they
want to do; rather, politicians behave in line with their constituents’ opinions because to do
otherwise would place the politicians in jeopardy of losing the next election.^52Public opinion influences government
at election time, when voters’ opinions
about incumbent politicians and the
party in power affect their decisions at
the polls. In 2018, voters’ evaluations
of President Trump were an important
factor in the election outcome.“Why
Should
I Care?”
Political scientists and pollsters spend so much time trying to measure public opinion
because it shapes election outcomes and policy changes in Washington. If you want to
know what the federal government is going to do (or why it’s not doing what you think it
should be doing), spend some time trying to determine where your own policy opinions
fit in with the policy opinions of the country as a whole.Recent events also speak to the influence of public opinion. Think about the failure
of elected officials over the last few years to repeal Obamacare, enact immigration
reform, or pass new limits on the ownership of handguns and assault rifles. In all of
these cases, a significant portion of Americans wanted policy change, but a substantial
percentage were opposed, and even the supporters disagreed on what kinds of
changes were best. Congressional inaction on these measures does not reflect a willful
ignorance of public opinion. Rather, it reflects the lack of a public consensus about what
government should do. Inaction on these issues is exactly what we should expect if
public opinion is real and relevant to what happens in politics.Full_07_APT_64431_ch06_198-231.indd 227 16/11/18 1:39 PM