The EconomistSeptember 14th 2019 Middle East & Africa 512 public opinion has barely budged. If Mr
Lieberman sticks to his position, a majority
of the Knesset will probably be held by par-
ties eager to see Mr Netanyahu leave. That
is the only thing that unites them—hardly
enough to make left-wing Arab parties sit
with Jewish nationalists in the same gov-
ernment. Deadlock beckons again.
Turnout in April was 68%, down four
points from the previous vote in 2015.
Much of the drop was due to a poor show-
ing among Israeli Arabs. Their turnout was
just 49%, a 15-point decline. The ultra-Or-
thodox will show up en masse at the urging
of their rabbis, which helps Mr Netanya-
hu’s allies. But he no doubt worries about
whether his own supporters will bother.
For years Likud pollsters have noticed
that even staunch right-wing voters are tir-
ing of Mr Netanyahu’s long rule and his
seemingly endless personal scandals. They
are not willing to cross party lines and vote
for the centre-left. But they may decide to
stay home or go to the beach.
In the past Mr Netanyahu has overcome
“Bibi fatigue” with fear. On election day in
2015, for example, he warned that Arab vot-
ers were “coming to the polls in droves”.
This year he is at it again, accusing Arab
citizens of voter fraud and trying to “steal
the election”. Less than two weeks before
the vote, he tried to rush a bill through par-
liament to permit observers to film in Is-
raeli polling stations, an effort seen as an
attempt to intimidate Arab voters. (The bill
did not pass.)
Now comes his promise of annexation,
a long-cherished dream of the far right. In
one sense it is a desperate stunt, similar to
one before the election in April. But it was
still jarring to hear an Israeli prime minis-
ter speak of annexing one-third of the West
Bank, land the world sees as part of a future
Palestinian state. It is far from clear that Mr
Netanyahu will keep his promise—he has
been in power for 13 years and has never
taken any actions towards annexing the
territory. But even if he does not act, his
words help to normalise the idea. A future
leader may be less restrained.
A new bloc is coalescing at the centre of
Israeli politics, motivated by resentment at
the influence of religious parties, Mr Net-
anyahu’s largely dependable allies. Both Mr
Lieberman and Benny Gantz, the leader of
Blue and White, call for the formation of a
“secular national-unity government”. To-
gether with Likud, and the much-dimin-
ished Labour, such a coalition would have a
comfortable majority.
They cannot agree on who will lead it.
Mr Gantz has ruled out serving under an in-
dicted prime minister. Mr Netanyahu will
not relinquish power voluntarily. His own
party could push him out—but Likud has
never deposed one of its own leaders. Un-
less Mr Netanyahu defies the polls, Israel
looks set for further instability. 7
I
t was thefirst true presidential debate
in the Arab world, yet the front-runner
was nowhere to be seen. Nabil Karoui was
not entirely to blame for his absence from
the stage, though. The businessman and
media mogul is campaigning to be presi-
dent of Tunisia from jail.
On September 15th Tunisians will
choose a new president for the second time
since their revolution in 2010. The democ-
racy that emerged has endured assassina-
tions, terrorist attacks and a moribund
economy. Most recently it survived the
death of a president: Beji Caid Essebsi, the
winner of the election in 2014, who died in
July. In a country that had only two rulers
for the first half-century after indepen-
dence, 26 people are now competing to re-
place Essebsi. With the winner needing at
least 50% of the vote, a run-off is likely.
The televised debate that began on Sep-
tember 7th was spread over three nights
and featured most of the candidates. Some
appeared nervous and hesitant. The format
precluded any real discussion. Still, Tuni-
sians were riveted. Cafés that showed the
debate drew the sorts of crowds usually re-
served for a big football match.
Whether the people turn out to vote is a
different matter. The electoral commis-
sion, known as isie, has worked hard to
sign up new voters. Almost everyone eligi-
ble is registered. But voters seem increas-
ingly frustrated with politics. Turnout for
presidential and parliamentary elections
in 2014 was 63% and 68%. In last year’s mu-nicipal election just 34% of voters showed
up. “There have been other elections and
nothing really happened,” says Khmais
Boungisha, a student from Bizerte. “I can’t
see why I should be optimistic.”
Such frustrations have drawn eclectic
candidates into the race. There are no re-
cent polls (isieforbade their publication in
July), but earlier surveys offered encour-
agement to outsiders such as Mr Karoui,
who promises a “war on poverty” with new
infrastructure spending. He says little
about how Tunisia will pay for this. The
government is in the middle of an imf-
backed reform programme that seeks to re-
duce the budget deficit from 6.3% of gdpin
2016 to 3.9% this year.
Not everyone is a populist, of course.
The race features stalwart members of the
establishment, such as Moncef Marzouki,
who led the country after the uprising. En-
nahda, the moderate Islamist party that
won Tunisia’s first free legislative election,
is putting forward Abdelfattah Mourou.
The prime minister, Youssef Chahed, a
technocrat, announced his candidacy for
president with a promise to “challenge old
mindsets”. Yet for many voters Mr Chahed
himself represents an old mindset. His
economic reforms have been painful.
As Mr Karoui soared in the polls, parlia-
ment passed a controversial law this sum-
mer that barred him (and a few other candi-
dates) from running. To his credit Essebsi
refused to sign the measure, which was
eventually declared void. In August the au-
thorities tried a new tactic: the police ar-
rested Mr Karoui for tax evasion and mon-
ey-laundering, charges that his aides insist
are political. Under Tunisian law, however,
he is still eligible to stand, even from jail.
He will split the populist vote with candi-
dates like Kais Saied, a law professor
dubbed “the robot” for his tendency to
speak in stilted classical Arabic. Mr Saied
wants to bring back the death penalty and
thinks homosexuality is a foreign plot to
weaken Tunisia. Another candidate, Abir
Moussi, views the revolution as a mistake
and seeks to abolish parliament.
Whoever wins will soon realise that the
president has little say over domestic af-
fairs. Elections for parliament, scheduled
for October, will do more to shape eco-
nomic and social policy. The presidential
vote will be a protest against the status quo.
In a region mired in autocracy, perhaps
even that is something to cheer. 7TUNIS
Frustrated voters are choosing from a slate of bizarre presidential candidatesElections in TunisiaA jailbird, a robot and many more
The prisoner and his people