The Economist - UK - 09.14.2019

50 The EconomistSeptember 14th 2019

1

B

y now itis something of an Israeli ritu-

al. As an election looms, Binyamin Net-

anyahu digs deep for ways to scare or thrill

his hawkish supporters. He says unkind

things about Israel’s Arab minority. He

warns of voter fraud. He invites nervous

conservatives to imagine a cabinet minis-

ter named Ahmed. On September 10th he

offered a carrot: if re-elected, Mr Netanya-

hu said, he would annex the occupied Jor-

dan Valley in the West Bank. Such a move—

indeed, any discussion of it even—would

be reviled abroad, including by Israel’s al-

lies. But foreign criticism worries him far

less than the threat of defeat at home.

This will be Israel’s second election

since April. The previous ballot gave 65

seats to hawkish and religious parties,

which should have let Mr Netanyahu form

a government (see chart). But Avigdor Lie-

berman, the leader of the nationalist Yis-

rael Beiteinu party, refused to join unless

the government agreed to pass a long-de-

layed law to make it harder for ultra-Ortho-

dox Jews to avoid military service by at-

tending religious schools. Mr Netanyahu

could not agree to this without spurring his

ultra-Orthodox allies to quit any potential

coalition. He was left humiliated, one seat

short of a majority.

In an earlier era the Israeli president

would have asked another party to form a

coalition. But Mr Netanyahu is eager to

avoid this. He faces looming indictments

for corruption and fraud. Remaining in

power will make it easier for him to defend

himself. Perhaps for this reason, Mr Netan-

yahu persuaded the newly elected Knesset

to break with political tradition and dis-

solve itself, forcing a snap election. And so,

on September 17th, Israeli voters will

trudge to the ballot box yet again.

If polls are accurate, Mr Netanyahu will

again fail to win a majority. Mr Lieberman’s

gambit proved popular; surveys show his

small party doubling in size since April.

This would not make him a serious con-

tender for the premiership. But it does

make him a bigger obstacle for Mr Netanya-

hu. The ultra-Orthodox parties adamantly

oppose a conscription bill and will not sup-

port a government that plans to pass it.

This ought to be good news for Mr Net-

anyahu’s rivals—but they too have little

prospect of winning. The largest centre-left

party, called Blue and White, has run a des-

ultory campaign plagued by infighting and

gaffes. It has no easy path to forming a co-

alition. Meanwhile Ehud Barak, a former

prime minister, re-entered politics to great

fanfare this summer. Instead of shaking up

the race, though, he merely muddied the

waters for centre-left voters confused

about whom to support.

Five months after the previous election,

Israel’s election

The magician’s latest trick

JERUSALEM

Will Binyamin Netanyahu’s vow to annex part of the West Bank win votes?

Time to shake it up again

Source: Central Elections Committee

Seats in Israel’s Knesset by party and political stance, April 2019 election, 120 seats available

Hadash-Taal 6

Raam-Balad 4 Yisrael Beiteinu 5

Centre-left bloc 55 Right-wing parties 65

Likud 35

United Right 5

Blue & White 35

Meretz 4 Labour 6 Kulanu 4

Shas

8

UTJ

8

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