The EconomistSeptember 7th 2019 BriefingThe Syrian civil war 232 They want simply to claim the spoils: gen-
erous concessions to extract oil, mine
phosphates and operate ports.
For decades Syria was a centralised re-
gime with a closed economy. Damascus
controlled the provision of all basic ser-
vices, from health care to bread. As Mr As-
sad lost control of territory, however,
things got more complicated. Russia and
Iran forged ties with pro-regime militias,
which in turn built economic fiefs. Busi-
nessmen and crooks stepped in to deliver
services—and turn healthy profits. All con-
cerned profess loyalty to Mr Assad; but they
have other interests and fealties.
There are growing hints that Mr Assad is
worried about this loss of control. In Au-
gust, for example, his defence minister
tried to rein in a loyalist militia known as
the Tiger Forces. Commanded by Suhail al-
Hassan, a favourite of the Russians, the Ti-
gers have a reputation for brutal effective-
ness, with allegations of massacres and
torture that date back to the earliest days of
the war. The unit has now been subsumed
into the army, though it remains to be seen
whether this is merely a cosmetic change.
Then there is the unexpected bit of pal-
ace intrigue in Damascus this summer.
Rami Makhlouf is a cousin of the president
who made a fortune through his owner-
ship of Syriatel, the largest mobile-phone
operator, and then branched out to proper-
ty, banking and other sectors. (He also
helped finance the Tiger Forces.) With his
family ties and wealth, he seemed un-
touchable—until August, when both re-
gime supporters and critics said that Mr
Makhlouf, and perhaps dozens of other ty-
coons, were being investigated. Offices
were supposedly raided and assets frozen.
Apologists were keen to paint this as an
anti-corruption exercise—and graft is, to
be sure, a huge problem in Syria. Mr Makh-
louf’s son caused a stir this summer when
he shared photos of his gilded lifestyle on
Instagram. While his compatriots suffer
and die, Mohammad Makhlouf showed
himself with his luxury car collection in
Dubai and flying around on a mono-
grammed private jet.
But thinking Mr Assad would genuinely
campaign against corruption is like imag-
ining Mr Trump crusading for civility. The
issue is not restitution but redistribution.
Mr Putin wants some of the billions of dol-
lars Russia has lent Syria repaid. Mr Assad
is shaking down cronies to cover the bill.
His regime likes to portray itself as stand-
ing against an “imperialist” West. But it is
in thrall to Russia and Iran.
Indeed, almost from the start, the Syri-
an war was fought on false premises. Mr
Assad cast his opponents as terrorists.
Western powers misled the rebels to be-
lieve they would have help. Turkey pre-
tended not to see tens of thousands of for-
eign fighters streaming across its borders.
The delusions continue today, whether in
Russia and Turkey mooting deals to save
Idlib or European states thinking they have
“leverage” over Mr Assad. But no amount of
foreign aid will extract democratic reforms
from a blood-soaked dictator who burned
his country and gassed his people to stay in
power. Nor will it convince many of the ref-
ugees who fled Syria to return.
It is far too late for a happier ending. The
Syrians who took part in the uprising—asrebels, activists and the like—realise this.
Scattered to the wind in exile, they have, in
a sense, moved on: there are jobs to find,
languages to learn, lives to build. But they
also doubt this is truly the end. The abuse
and corruption that caused the uprising in
2011 have only worsened. The regime is iso-
lated, bankrupt and hollow. “Assad ran a
police state,” says one former activist who
found asylum in Europe. “Now he looks
like a prisoner.” 7L
ife was hardenough in Istanbul,
says Mahmoud, speaking by phone
from a police station on Symi, a tiny
Greek island. Jobs were scarce, rents
were high. When he heard he was to be
sent back to the Anatolian province
where he had first registered as a refugee
years earlier, he decided instead to leave
Turkey altogether. In August Mahmoud
paid a smuggler $1,500 for a place on a
rubber boat and headed for Symi.
Few countries can claim to have done
more than Turkey for the millions flee-
ing the war in neighbouring Syria. The
country has taken in 3.6m Syrian refu-
gees, offering them free public health
care and education along with limited
access to the labour market. Over
100,000 have been granted citizenship.
Opposition parties, backed by public
opinion, have long argued that some
refugees should be sent packing. Stung
by an economic downturn and a series of
losses in municipal elections this spring,
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
seems to have come to the same conclu-
sion. Mr Erdogan has reportedly drawnup plans to resettle 700,000 refugees in a
“safe zone” he plans to set up in Syria’s
predominantly Kurdish north-east. The
government has ordered hundreds of
thousands of Syrians who, like Mah-
moud, first registered outside Istanbul to
leave the city by the end of October.
Some will end up back in the war
zones of Syria. Suleyman Soylu, the
interior minister, says that around
350,000 Syrians have voluntarily re-
turned home. Some say their return was
not remotely voluntary. Ibrahim, who
came to Turkey four years ago, says he
was arrested in Istanbul earlier this
summer because he had never applied
for Turkish identity papers. Along with
other refugees he was put in a bus, driven
to the Syrian border and handed over to
jihadists. He is now back in his home
town, Al-Hasakah. His wife and baby
daughter remain in Istanbul.
Turkey’s government insists that it
does not deport people without consent.
But the ruling-party candidate in this
spring’s mayoral election said he would
have refugees who committed crimes in
Istanbul “grabbed by the ears and sent
back”. Officials acknowledge that refu-
gees deemed a threat to public order or
security are regularly forced to choose
between returning to Syria and a year in a
detention centre. The state news agency
recently reported that over 6,000 people
were deported from a single border
province in the first half of the year.
Some of those facing expulsion have
gone into hiding. Others have followed
in Mahmoud’s wake; he says he saw 200
more refugees arrive on Symi in the two
days after he got there. Almost 10,000
Syrians got to Greece in August, mostly
by sea, the highest monthly total since
Mr Erdogan and the eusigned a deal to
stem the flow of migrants and refugees
into Europe in 2016. As one crisis unfolds
on the border with Idlib, another may be
brewing on the Aegean.The migrant crisis, revisited
RefugeesISTANBUL
Turkey tightens restrictions on refugeesBack on the bus