Financial Times Europe - 12.09.2019

4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday12 September 2019

I N T E R N AT I O N A L

C H LO E C O R N I S H— BEIRUT
M I C H A E L P E E L— BRUSSELS
VA L E R I E H O P K I N S— BUDAPEST

Hungary isplanning to upgrade diplo-
matic relations with Syria, a move that
will anger influential EU members who
have sought to keep their distance from
the Damascus regime.
Budapest has for months been work-
ing on a proposal to send a chargé
d’affaires back to Syria, according to
diplomats in Brussels and Beirut, which
would be a precursor to reopening its
embassy. While a few European capitals
have kept up diplomatic ties during the
seven-year conflict, this would be the
first time an EU member state has

moved towards reopening a shuttered

embassy in Syria.

Many EU members strongly oppose

normalising relations withBashar al-

Assad’s authoritarian regime by dis-

patching envoys to Syria. One European

diplomat in Beirut called Hungary’s

proposed move “very annoying”.

While influential EU member states

have officially upheld theirstance of

denying the Assad regime reconstruc-

tion funding and diplomatic relations

without an agreed political transition, a

few states are breaking away.

“It is for individual countries to

decide their representation,” said an

official from an EU country that has

sought to maintain a tough line. “But we

do not think the climate is right.”

The Hungarian foreign affairs minis-

try and a government spokesperson did

not respond to requests for comment.

Administration representatives in Brus-

sels referred questions to Budapest.

Hungary’s far-right prime minister

Viktor Orban has sought to portray

himself as a defender of Christianity,

and has met senior representatives from

Syria’s various Christian communities.

According to European diplomats,

Hungary insists that it is motivated to

strengthen its presenceas part of its aid

efforts, although it is a minor contribu-

tor to the umanitarian effort in Syriah

and mainly funnels support towards

Christian communities.

A European diplomat remarked: “In

Budapest, it is a national sport to annoy

Brussels.”

Emile Hokayem, senior fellow at the

International Institute for Strategic

Studies think-tank, called Hungary’s

potential move “a stunt based on ideol-

ogy”. He said it would “further erode the

EU consensus, but that is in large part

because [Germany, France and the UK]

are not making [Syria] a priority any

more”.

European diplomats do make quiet

trips to Damascus, but few have official

diplomatic representation in Syria, and

they commit not to interact with senior

regime officials.

The Czech Republic was the only EU

country to keep its ambassador in Syria

during the civil war. Romania has an

ambassador to Syria based in the Leba-

nese capital Beirut, while Bulgaria also

has a chargé d’affaires who takes the

place of an ambassador. Gulf states such

as Bahrain and the UAE have reopened

embassies in Syria.

Although Hungarian officials would

not confirm the plans, there have been

signs for some months that Budapest

was warming to Damascus. Janos Budai,

Hungary’s co-ordinator for Syria, vis-

ited Damascus last year, and spoke at a

think-tank event called: “In search of an

EU role in Syria’s future.”

Damascus also courts politicians from

European far-right groups. Hungary’s

far-right Jobbik party has lobbied for re-

establishing ties with Syria.

Syria’s bloody civil war began in 2011,

after a brutal government crackdown

on peaceful protesters mutated into an

armed uprising.Helped by its allies Rus-

sia and Iran, Mr Assad’s regime has been

able to reassert its hold over the country.

M E H U L S R I VA STAVA— TEL AVIV
Benjamin Netanyahu’s tried and tested
election strategy of stoking fears among
his political base and insisting only he
can protect them has served him well,
delivering fourterms as Israel’s prime
minister.
He is preparing for perhaps the big-
gest challenge in his three-decade politi-
cal career, Tuesday’s general election,
the second in six months. And with his
legacyin the balance, the wily leader has
taken the formula a step further with an
incendiary vow to extend Israeli sover-
eignty to parts of the occupied West
Bank.
“It is a major development, because it
is the first serious departure from any
two-state framework,” said Anshel Pfef-
fer, author of a biography of Mr Netan-
yahu, referring to the future creation of
a separate Palestinian state alongside
Israel.
“That said, whatever an Israeli politi-
cian promises in the week before an
election has to be seen through a politi-
cal prism, especially in Bibi’s case,” he
added, using the premier’s nickname.
“His election strategy is to maximise
turnout among his rightwing base, and
he is throwing his base as much red
meat as possible.”
Thwarted in his attempts to cobble
together a coalition government follow-
ing the inconclusive general election in
April, Mr Netanyahu has spent the sum-
merclaiming Arab-Israelis were poised
to commit large-scale election fraud,
warning about the nuclear threat from
Iran and accusing the Israeli media of
bias and, in one case, being anti-Semitic.
Four years ago, he spurred a last-
minute voter surge with an election day
message that Arab voters were heading
to the polls “in droves”. This time,
he pledged on Tuesday that if he
emerged the winner e wouldh
extend Israeli sovereignty to
the 2,400 sq km Jordan Val-
ley, a move that would ll buta
kill off any possible Palestin-
ian state.
Mr Netanyahu’s election
rivals were quick to dismiss the

pledge as a political stunt, butit under-

lined how the stakes have rarely been

higher forhim. If he loses the election,

as some pollspredict, he mayface acor-

ruption indictment as a weakened

opposition leader, beset by rivalsin his

own Likud party who have waited years

for the formidable leader to stumble.

The attorney-general willnext month

rule on whether to indict Mr Netanyahu

for corruption, after police recommen-

dedhe should face charges of bribery,

fraud and breach of trust. Mr Netanya-

hu has denied wrongdoing and labelled

the charges a media-led witch-hunt.

Part of Mr Netanyahu’s problem is

that predictions of low turnout, as Israe-

lis tire of thepolitical squabbling, are

likely to work against him. The

rightwing infighting ahead of the

last election boosted the oppos-

ition when two ofhis allies failed

to meet the minimum threshold

to enter parliament.

“I see the polls, and they

show that many of our voters

are staying home,” Mr

Netanyahu saidas he

urged supporters toback him. He has

also repeated unfounded allegations,

rarely seen in Israeli politics, that Arab-

Israeli citizens were seeking to steal

votes, as the prime minister pursued

both parliamentary and legal action to

force cameras into voting booths. This

week his office retracted a Facebook

post sayingArab-Israeli voters planned

to “annihilate the state of Israel”, saying

it had been issued in error.

Aida Touma-Suleiman, an influential

Israeli lawmaker of Palestinian descent,

said of such a trategy: “He learnt theses

tactics from the racist American right-

wing, which has suppressed and will

suppress the African-American vote.”

The bruisingelection left Mr Netan-

yahu a seat short of a parliamentary

majority, after a rightwing ally deman-

ded he rein in hisreligious, ultraortho-

dox minority coalition allies. Rather

than allow the rival Blue and White

party, led by former military chief Ben-

ny Gantz, the chance to form a govern-

ment, Mr Netanyahu dissolved parlia-

mentjust after hisdeadline expired.

With the Blue and White alliance and

the Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by ex-de-

fence minister Avigdor Lieberman, hoo-

vering up votes, Mr Netanyahu has

focused on securing a bigger share of

votes within his rightwing bloc.

To do this, he must take votes from

parties such as the pro-settlement Yam-

ina, whose leader, Ayelet Shaked, once

described her vision for peace as “Maxi-

mum land, minimum Palestinians”.

Mr Netanyahu’s goal is to ensure that

Likud emerges ahead of the Blue and

White party, which includes three retired

military chiefs, and is once again given

the first opportunity to form a govern-

ment. Yettaking votes from other right-

wing partiesendangers their chances of

reaching 3.25 per cent of the national

vote needed to enter the Knesset.

Beforehis West Bank pledge, Mr

Netanyahu again urged rightwing vot-

ers to back him “otherwise we will wake

up the day after the elections with [Blue

and White co-leader] Yair Lapid and

Benny Gantz as prime ministers”.

He added: “Anyone who wants me as

prime minister must vote for Likud. If

you split the vote, you lose the vote.”

C H R I ST I A N S H E P H E R D A N D TO M

M I TC H E L L— BEIJING

China’s governmentyesterday moved

to exempt 16 types of US exported

goods from import tariffs ahead of the

latest round of trade talks n a gesturei

that will do little to resolve the trade

war between the world’s two largest

economies.

Starting on September 17, China will for

one year suspend the tariffs, which it

said were countermeasures against US

tariffs following Washington’s“Section

301” nvestigation, the State Councili

announced.

Included on the list were some cancer

drugs, lubricant oils and a handful of

chemicals that China either does not

produce itself or cannot easily replace

by buying from other countries.

Nosignificant US exports such as pork

or soyabeans were included, with China

instead turning to countries such as

Argentina, Brazil and Russia for

commoditiesit previously sourced from

US farm states that voted for Donald

Trump in the 2016 presidential

election.

The State Council’s tax regulator will

next look to further expand exemptions

on US goods and release follow-up lists

when they are ready, it said. In total,

more than 6,000 US goodscould qualify

for tariff exemptions.

China and the United States last week

agreed to restart face-to-face talks later

this month in a bid to ease tensions in

their bitter trade row.

Lower-level Chinese and US officials

are expected to resume negotiations

later this week or next, ahead of a trip to

Washington by China’s lead negotiator,

Liu He, in October.

There has been little progress since

negotiations broke down in early May,

when Mr Trump accused Beijing of

“reneging ” on what US officials

described as an almost completed draft

agreement.

A June meeting between Mr Trump

and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping,

on the sidelines of the G20 summit in

Osaka, Japan, also failed to break the

impasse.

People briefed on the negotiations

said that to restore momentum to the

talks,a confidence-building “mini-

agreement” would be needed, in which

the US eased restrictions on technology

sales to Chinese telecoms equipment

maker Huawei in return for Chinese

purchases of American agricultural

commodities. After the May break-

down, Mr Trump moved to limit sales of

US-made components to Shenzhen-

based Huawei and remains frustrated

that China has largely refrained from

any meaningful purchases of US agricul-

tural commodities.

“The Chinese are waiting to see what

the US does on Huawei,” said one person

briefed on the talks.

The next round of US tariff increases

is scheduled to take effect on October 1,

the same day that the Chinese Commu-

nist party will celebrate the 70th anni-

versary of the founding of the People’s

Republic of China in 1949.

Negotiations have been further ham-

pered by the protest movement in Hong

Kong — which Chinese officials say the

US has encouraged — that started over

an extradition bill. US officials have

rejected the accusation.

R O B I N H A R D I N G— TOKYO

A rising star of Japanese politics has
been handed a poisoned chalicefilled
with radioactive water after Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe reshuffled his
cabinet.

In the most eye-catching move, 38-year-
old Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former
prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, was
given his first cabinet job as environ-
ment minister. But the appointment
makes him responsible for the fate of
thousands of tonnes of contaminated
water at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi
nuclear plant.
The job is likely to prove a test of Mr
Koizumi’s credentials as a future prime
minister while letting Mr Abe tap into
his public popularity, amid a reshuffle
that largely maintained thestatus quo.
Taro Aso, finance minister, Yoshihide
Suga, chief cabinet secretary, and Toshi-
hiro Nikai, ruling party secretary-gen-
eral, all maintained their positions in a
line-up that included only two women.
Toshimitsu Motegi, the man charged
with negotiating Japan’s trade deal with
the US, was promoted to foreign minis-

ter while several other loyal Abe lieuten-

ants got cabinet jobs. Taro Kono, foreign

minister, moved sideways to defence.

“My impression is that this is the Abe

administration entering its final phase,”

said Atsuo Ito, political analyst. “The

pillars of the government are the same

and that will maintain the stability of

the administration.”

The younger Mr Koizumi isregarded

as one of the ruling Liberal Democratic

party’s most formidable electoral assets.

He has previously resisted elevation to

the cabinet, preferring to maintain a

distance from Mr Abe.

But accepting the post of environ-

ment minister will make him the public

face of the contaminated water issue.

The water is stored in rows of tanks on

the Fukushima site but operator Tokyo

Electric expects to run out of space by

2022 as groundwater continues to flow

into the site.

Although the water has been treated

to remove radionuclides, current tech-

nology cannot separate the isotope tri-

tium. Other options include evaporat-

ing the liquid or buildingeven more

tanks to postpone a final decision.

Highlighting the challenge for Mr Koi-

zumi, outgoing environment minister

Yoshiaki Harada said: “The only real

choice is to release it [into the sea] and

dilute it.” Tritium exists in nature in

trace amounts.

Releasing the water would provoke a

fierce backlash from local fishermen,

environmentalists and neighbouring

countries such as South Korea. Mr Koi-

zumi will have to find a way through

their objections.

Mr Koizumi said he would visit Fuku-

shima straightaway to meet local

people.

Middle East

Hungary to upgrade Syria ties and snub EU

Move to normalise links

with Assad regime likely

to anger bloc members

‘It is for individual

countries to decide their

representation. We do not

think the climate is right’

Import duties

China lifts

tariffs from

handful of US

goods ahead

of trade talks

Israel elections. ikud partyL

Netanyahu makes risky push for rightwing vote

Premier pledges to annex part

of West Bank in appeal to his

base ahead of next week’s vote

A Palestinian

protester near

Beit El, in the

Israeli-occupied

West Bank this

week. Below, PM

Benjamin

Netanyahu

MohamadTorokman euters/R

‘His election

strategy is to

maximise

turnout

among his

rightwing

base, and he

is throwing

his base as

much red

meat as

possible’

Japan

Koizumi Jr handed cabinet poisoned chalice

JA M I E S M Y T H— SYDNEY

Australia plans to test welfare recipi-

ents for drugs and expand a cashless

debit card scheme to prevent unem-

ployed people using state benefits to

gamble or buy alcohol under a

shake-upofitssocialsecuritysystem.

The reformsare one of theconservative

government’s first big domestic policy

announcements sincewinning re-elec-

tion in Maywith a pledge to slash

income taxand boost mployment.e

But critics warn the legislation,which

was presented to parliamentyesterday,

would stigmatise the unemployedand

fail to achieve its aims of tackling addic-

tion and getting people back to work.

The ruling Liberal-National coalition

wants to expand an existing trial of a

cashless debit card scheme for welfare

recipients to limit their ability to spend

money on alcohol, drugs or gambling.

Under the scheme, 80 per cent of wel-

fare payments are placed on a card that

can only be used in registered shops. It

typically operates in areas where most

people on welfare are indigenous, rais-

ing allegations of institutional racism.

The government also plans to test

5,000 recipients of income support for

illicit substances such as methampheta-

mine nd marijuana in a $10m pilota

project. Anyone testing positive would

be referred to drug counselling sessions

and have welfare payments “quaran-

tined” using a cashless payments card.

A refusal to take the test would result in

the cancellation of welfare payments.

Scott Morrison, prime minister,has

pitched the reforms as part of a “com-

passionate conservative” welfare

agenda. The government says welfare

recipients have used drugs and alcohol

as an excuse for failing to turn up for job

interviews or work appointments more

than 5,000 times in the past year. “We

want... to assist people struggling with

addiction to break their addiction and

to be able to go forward and get them-

selves into employment and have a

completely different life,” he said.

Critics, however, say such pro-

grammes add to the stigma felt by many

disenfranchised individuals.

“Cashless debit and drug testing com-

pound the sense of shame many people

feel about being unemployed when they

are doing all they can to find paid work

in today’s competitive job market,” said

Charmaine Crowe, a senior adviser at

the Australian Council of Social Service,

an advocacy body.

“Not only are both of these policies

stigmatising, they are also unproven.”

Medical professionals say there are

few, if any, examples of successful pro-

grammes that have reduced addiction.

A trial in the UK was abandoned in

2010 when a government agency con-

cluded the policy was “simplistic”,

“unconvincing” and “had the potential

to make a bad situation worse”.

In New Zealand, where a drug-testing

scheme operates with prospective

employers, just 119 of the 40,000 people

tested in the year to June failed their

tests, a level that experts have said

shows the policy is a waste of resources.

Benefits overhaul

Canberra welfare shake-up targets drug users

‘We want to assist people

struggling with addiction

to break their addiction’

Scott Morrison, prime minister

Shinjiro Koizumi: will have to tackle

problems at Fukushima Daiichi