178 179
PERSONAL FINANCE
Wealth-building investments
THE 18-YEAR REAL-ESTATE CYCLE
The idea that ups and downs in the real estate market
run in an 18-year cycle is based on US studies of the
property market over two centuries by economic
forecaster Phillip J. Anderson. He demonstrated that land
sales and property construction peak on average every
18 years—14 years up and four years down.
HOUSE PRICES
7 years 7 years 4 years
TIME (YEARS)
Property
investors buy
Rents
stabilize
Too many houses;
construction
slows; rents fall Abundance of
tradespeople as
construction
prices fall
Valuations
fall
Affordability
crisis; too hard to
get mortgage
than buyersMore sellers
No confidence in market
Rents
increase
Hardly any construction
work
Se
lle
r’
s^ m
ar
ke
t Sell
er
’s
m
ar
ke
t
❯❯Appreciation Rise in the value of a property over time.
❯❯Depreciation Fall in the value of a property over time.
❯❯Capital gain The increase in value of a property (or
other asset) from its purchase price; this can be short
term (under one year) or long term.
❯❯BRR Buying, Refurbishing, and Refinancing strategy.
NEED TO KNOW
B
u
ye
r’
s (^) m
ar
ke
t
SALEFOR SALEFOR
SALEFOR
R e c o v e
ry
(^)
S
lu
m
p
B
o
o
m
(^) S
lo
w
(^) d
o
w
n
Bu
ye
r’s
m
ar
ke
t
5 %
annual housing
price increase
in US in 2015
US_178-179_Buying_selling_property_for_profit.indd 179 13/10/2016 16:20