Financial Times Europe - 26.03.2020

2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Thursday 26 March 2020

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Cases so far:

Tokyo residents asked to stay indoors

over the weekend after infections rise

Tokyo’s governor has asked the population of the

world’s largest city to stay at home this weekend after

yesterday’s record daily rise — 41 — in new coronavirus

infections. Tuesday’s figure was just 17.

The announcement by Yuriko Koike, which came

less than 24 hours after Tokyo announced the post-

ponement of the summer Olympics, raised fears that

Japan could be on course for an “explosive spike” after a

comparatively slow rate of increase in recent weeks.

US, Spain and Italy account for more

than half of all new daily cases

Heir to British throne tests positive but

has mild case and is working at home

Prince Charles, 71, has tested positive for Covid-19,

Clarence House, his official residence, said

yesterday.

The British heir to the throne had mild symptoms but

was otherwise in good health and working from home.

The Duchess of Cornwall, the prince’s wife, had been

found to be free of the virus after tests in Scotland,

where the couple have been staying, it added.

Daily new confirmed cases











Mar  Mar  Mar  Mar 

Sources: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE; FT research; Worldometers

US

Spain

Italy

Rest of

world

Positive cases in the US, Spain and Italy underscore their

position as the global virus hotspots. US cases total

55,081. Spain now has a higher death toll than China.

4 51,

cases and 20,499 deaths by 17.12 on March 25 2020

Source: Johns Hopkins University, CSSE

Read more at ft.com/coronavirus

CORONAVIRUS

ROUND-UP

US urges Saudi Arabia to help stabilise

oil markets ahead of G20 meeting

America’s top diplomat has appealed to Saudi Arabia to

help stabilise energy markets ahead of a meeting of G

leaders as the pandemic upturns the world economy.

US secretary of state Mike Pompeo spoke to Crown

Prince Mohammed bin Salman about the need “to

maintain stability in global energy markets amid the

worldwide response” to the coronavirus, according to a

US state department statement. It comes after Saudi

Arabia raised oil production, triggering a price war.

Canada unlocks C$82bn in financial aid

after Trudeau drops controversial plan

Canada’s House of Commons passed emergency legisla-

tion to unlock C$82bn in financial assistance for indi-

viduals and businesses after Justin Trudeau’s govern-

ment dropped some controversial measures.

Mr Trudeau’s proposal would have given his govern-

ment unlimited scope to tax, spend and borrow until

the end of 2021. The government agreed to drop the

taxation power and shorten the term of other emer-

gency powers to September, Canadian media reported.

R I C H A R D M I L N E— OSLO

Sweden has become an international

outlier in its response to coronavirus,

keeping schools open and adopting few

other restrictions as the Scandinavian

nation embarks on what one health

expert called a “huge experiment”.

Since the UK went into lockdown on

Monday evening, Sweden is the largest

European country with the fewest limits

on citizens’ movements. Schools for

children up to the age of 16 remain open,

many people continue to go to work and

packed commuter trains and buses

were reported in the capital, Stockholm.

“Clearly, Sweden stands out at the

moment,” said Carl Bildt, the former

prime minister.

Swedish authorities have banned

public gatherings of more than 500

people, closed universities and advised

workers to stay at home if possible.

Authorities on Tuesday ordered restau-

rants and bars only to serve people at

tables rather than at the bar.

Local media have been full of stories

of thousands of people gathering at

Swedish ski resorts, which until Satur-

day kept their nightlife open. The virus

has previously spread easily in moun-

tain resorts in Austria and Italy.

Johan Carlson, head of Sweden’s pub-

lic health agency, last week defended

Sweden’s approach, saying the country

“cannot take draconian measures that

have a limited impact on the epidemic

but knock out the functions of society”.

But he conceded that the 90,000 fig-

ure for the number of people who die

annually in Sweden would “increase sig-

nificantly” if its healthcare system

became overburdened. There have

been just over 2,500 reported Covid-

cases in Sweden and 44 deaths.

“The future still looks manageable,”

said Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epi-

demiologist. He argued that schools

needed to stay open to provide childcare

for health workers, noting young people

appeared to have lower infection rates.

But a significant number of Swedish

health experts disagree. Mr Tegnell has

faced criticism after details of the antivi-

rus tactics leaked at the week-

end. Joacim Rocklov, an epidemiologist

at Umea University, said the authorities

were taking huge risks with public

health when so much is unknown.

“I do not see why Sweden would be so

different from other countries. It is a

huge experiment,” he said. “We have no

idea. It could work out. But it could also

go crazily in the wrong direction.”

Swedish authorities have said they are

not explicitly pursuing a strategy of

“herd immunity”, where a large seg-

ment of the population contracts the

virus in order for society to build up

immunity. The UK’s chief scientific

adviser suggested last week that Britain

had adopted such an approach before

the government backtracked.

Sweden is instead seeking to slow the

spread of infections and ensure its

health system does not become over-

whelmed. Mr Bildt said the situation in

Stockholm had changed “dramatically”

in recent weeks despite the absence of

legal restrictions, with many fewer peo-

ple going outside. But Mr Rocklov said it

was not yet known how long immunity

to Covid-19 would last. “There is a big

risk that Sweden would have to go into

quarantine when the health system goes

into crisis,” he added.

Stefan Lofven, Sweden’s prime minis-

ter, has called on everyone to play a part

in stopping the virus from spreading. He

used a televised address on Sunday to

warn of more restrictive measures.

Some argue the damage could cause

to the economy is too high. Kerstin

Hessius, a prominent fund manager,

argues Sweden’s strategy may be swap-

ping one disaster for a worse one. Her

views provoked a riposte from Leif Ost-

ling, former chief executive of truck-

maker Scania, who accused her of living

in a “financial bubble”. He urged Swedes

to hold to their “humanist viewpoint”.

Mr Rocklov said authorities were not

giving enough information for people to

make up their own mind. “More and

more experts are feeling uneasy with

this stewardship. It is not allowing for an

open debate. It is rather trying to push

down and make people quiet.”

Public health

Sweden bucks global trend with low number of restrictions

Stockholm: one expert has called the

national strategy a ‘huge experiment’

DANIEL DOMBEY— MADRID

GUY CHAZAN— BERLIN

JIM BRUNSDEN— BRUSSELS

France, Italy and Spain and six other

euro area governments have called for

the issuance of joint European debt, or

so-called coronabonds, to finance the

fight against Covid-19, setting up a clash

with capitals including Berlin that

believe it is premature.

In a joint letter to European Council

president Charles Michel, leaders from

the nine countries said the EU needed

“to work on a common debt instrument

issued by a European institution to raise

funds on the market on the same basis

and to the benefits of all member

states”. They argue the move would

ensure “stable long-term financing for

the policies required to counter the

damages caused by this pandemic”.

The intervention came a day before a

planned video conference of EU leaders

on the next stages of Europe’s crisis

response. Eurozone finance ministers

were on Tuesday unable to agree a firm

plan for the bloc’s bailout fund, the

European Stability Mechanism, to issue

credit lines to help tackle the crisis.

Germany has raised concerns the bloc

could exhaust possibilities for central-

ised fiscal action too early, before the

extent of economic needs becomes

clear. The Dutch government stressed

the ESM should be a last resort, and

firmly ruled out coronabonds.

The idea of joint coronabonds resur-

rects the concept of “eurobonds” —

rejected by the Netherlands, Germany

and other northern members of the cur-

rency bloc as fundamentally incompati-

ble with their vision of monetary union.

Peter Altmaier, the German economy

minister, told Handelsblatt: “I urge cau-

tion when supposedly new, ingenious

concepts are presented which often

enough are just long discarded ideas

coming back from the dead.”

Berlin said it had “already agreed a

comprehensive package of measures

and there is an ambitious, targeted pro-

gramme on the European level”. But

France, Italy, Spain and others argued

Covid-19 constituted an external, sym-

metric shock that affects all countries.

European Central Bank president

Christine Lagarde urged finance minis-

ters during Tuesday's video conference

to embrace the use of coronabonds, said

people familiar with the discussion.

The signatories of the letter include

the leaders of Portugal, Ireland, Greece,

Slovenia, Luxembourg and Belgium.

“This common debt instrument should

have sufficient size and long maturity to

be fully efficient and avoid rollover risks

now as in the future,” the letter stated.

European Council letter

Nine EU nations call for joint debt deal

‘Coronabonds’ will ensure

stable finances to counter

pandemic, say backers

V I C TO R M A L L E T— PARIS

DA N I E L D O M B E Y— MADRID

MI L E S J O H N S O N— ROME

Franck Dattée is discovering how hard it

is to keep his business going in the midst

of a pandemic, however often French

employers and workers are urged to

keep the economy moving.

“At the moment almost all our cus-

tomers have decided to close their

building sites,” said Mr Dattée, who nor-

mally has 50 electricians for construc-

tion and security systems.

Unlike Giuseppe Conte, the Italian

prime minister, who decided to close all

non-essential businesses to slow the

spread of coronavirus, the French gov-

ernment has called on companies

repeatedly to stay open and on workers

to show up for jobs even if they are not in

essential services such as food supply.

“We have to continue to produce and

to keep the country running,” President

Emmanuel Macron said last week, two

days into a nationwide lockdown that

has stopped people leaving home except

to work, buy food or take exercise.

As coronavirus moves from Asia to

Europe and the US, governments are

facing the toughest of choices. If they

bring industry and construction to a

halt along with the entertainment and

travel sectors already shut down, the

resulting recession could be lasting. If

they do not, workers could fall ill and

spread the virus, prolonging the health

crisis and the downturn. On Tuesday

Donald Trump insisted the coronavirus

would kill fewer people than a “massive

recession or depression”.

Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa,

the French insurer, said: “The calcula-

tion of time versus depth for the drop in

GDP is not easy. Down the road, if some

more non-essential sectors close but

you end up with a shorter period of

disruption, you may not lose that much

over the year.”

European countries wondering about

the economic impact of pandemic

measures may look with some alarm at

China. Last week the Chinese National

Bureau of Statistics released a series

of poor economic indicators for Janu-

ary-February — the virus broke out in

only undermine the businesses involved

but also the whole economic supply

chain”. They will ensure measures are in

place to protect workers, some of whom

have exercised their right to absent

themselves in case of danger.

In the UK, housebuilders complain

the government’s advice on whether

sites should remain open has been mud-

dled. In the absence of a clarity, Taylor

Wimpey, one of Britain’s largest build-

ers, said it was shutting all its sites.

In Spain, where building work and

sales of everything from mattresses to

sports gear continue, the stand-off over

the lockdown has pitted the central gov-

ernment against some regions. Quim

Torra, leader of the Catalan administra-

tion, called for a “comprehensive stay-

at-home order”, saying “workers pro-

viding key services should be the only

exception”. Murcia ordered the “total

closure of the region except for minimal

services”, but the central government

said the decree had no legal force.

Nadia Calviño, deputy prime minister

for the economy, stressed the need to

“safeguard [labour] activity and

Closure debate.Competing pressures

Economies torn between health or wealth

Tough choices are being made

about protecting society or

getting ready for recovery

Hubei province in mid-January. These

included a 13.5 per cent year-on-year

fall in industrial output and a 20.5 per

cent drop in retail sales. In February,

President Xi Jinping said “large-scale

lay-offs” should be avoided. State-con-

trolled banks were told to continue to

extend credit to struggling businesses.

Across Europe, difficult negotiations

are under way between governments,

employers, unions and hard-pressed

doctors pressing for the tightest of lock-

downs to ease pressure on hospitals.

In Sweden, business people and sci-

entists argue over whether the meas-

ures against the virus are worth the eco-

nomic damage they cause. The French

government reached an uneasy truce

over the weekend with employer groups

in the construction sector, which

accounts for 1.5m jobs and nearly 6 per

cent of gross domestic product, after

Muriel Pénicaud, the labour minister,

accused them of “defeatism” in telling

companies to close.

The two sides agreed to continue

operations to “avoid a complete stop-

page of building sites, which would not

Slim pickings:

a strawberry

farm in Sainte-

Livrade-sur-Lot,

south-western

France. Many

farmers say the

lockdown has

left them short

of labour

Nicolas Tucat/AFP/Getty

employment so that there is an ade-

quate base to return to growth when we

leave this health crisis behind”.

Italy’s economic shutdown is not

absolute. Mr Conte said “we will slow

down the country’s productive engine,

but we will not stop it”. Rome ruled that

any business or factory not “strictly nec-

essary, crucial or indispensable” must

shut until April 3. Unions said the meas-

ures were not enough to protect work-

ers, and the Italian General Confedera-

tion of Labour threatened a general

strike in defence of health. But Confind-

ustria, the business lobby, asked Mr

Conte to ensure supply chains and sup-

port services that allow companies to

keep working were maintained.

Disputes about economic imperatives

matter little to smaller employers such

as Mr Dattée. He has no masks or sani-

tiser for his workers, and the online sites

handling benefits for laid-off staff have

been congested. “Right now we are in a

state of total uncertainty,” he added.

Additional reporting by Domitille Alain in

Paris, Richard Milne in Oslo and Tom

Mitchell in Singapore

‘I urge

caution

when new

concepts

are just long

discarded

ideas

coming

back from

the dead’

CORONAVIRUS

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