Financial Times Europe - 26.03.2020

Thursday 26 March 2020 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES 3

H E N RY F OY— M O S C O W

M A X S E D D O N— N E W YO R K

Russian president Vladimir Putin has

postponed a nationwide vote that was

set to extend his rule by 12 years, bow-

ing to pressure to delay after being

warned the coronavirus outbreak in

the country was worse than his govern-

ment’sdatasuggested.

The about-turn is a blow to Mr Putin,

who needs the public vote to complete

his rapid rewriting of the constitution in

order to extend his control of the Krem-

lin beyond 2024. However, he has found

his political plans thrown into disarray

by the spread of Covid-19.

The president, who had earlier vowed

the April 22 vote would go ahead while

stressing the spread of the disease was

“under control”, used a nationwide

address yesterday to announce his

U-turn. The move came hours after the

number of Covid-19 cases in Russia

jumped by a third, to 658, in its largest

daily increase.

“You know how seriously I feel about

this [vote],” said Mr Putin, in a sombre

speech broadcast across television

channels.

“However, our absolute priority is the

health and safety of our people, which is

why I think it is necessary to move the

vote to a later date.”

The constitutional changes, which Mr

Putin first suggested in an announce-

ment in January, have been rushed

through a rapidly assembled drafting

committee and were approved by both

houses of parliament last month.

The final hurdle is a national plebi-

scite and, if the changes are endorsed by

a majority of the public, they would

reset Mr Putin’s presidential terms

to zero. This would allow him to run

twice more after 2024, by which time he

will have completed four terms as presi-

dent.

Mr Putin said a new date would be

chosen once the scale of the outbreak

was better understood.

He did not use the speech to impose a

full-scale quarantine on Russia, as many

European cities have done, but

announced a “long weekend” that

would run from Saturday March 28 to

Sunday April 5, essentially asking peo-

ple not to go to work next week.

“Don’t think, as we Russians do, ‘It

won’t happen to me!’ It can happen to

anyone. And then what’s happening

today in many western countries, in

Europe and across the ocean, could hap-

pen to us in the near future,” he said.

“Following all recommendations is

absolutely essential. Keep yourselves

and loved ones safe by being disciplined

and responsible. And, believe me, the

safest thing now is to stay home.”

The speech, announced just hours

before it took place, came a day after the

mayor of Moscow, who is Mr Putin’s

former chief of staff, warned the presi-

dent the number of people infected

was “far more” than his government

was admitting and the healthcare sys-

tem was in danger of being overrun.

The Kremlin has already shut Russia’s

borders to almost all foreigners and

introduced “heightened preparedness”

measures to prevent the virus’s spread.

However, it has stopped short of the full

lockdowns or mass testing imple-

mented in many other countries.

Russia

Putin bows to pressure and

delays vote on extending rule

JA M E S S H OT T E R

C E N T R A L E U R O P E C O R R E S P O N D E N T

Slovakia has passed a law allowing the

state to use data from telecoms compa-

nies to track the movements of people

suffering from coronavirus to ensure

that they are abiding by quarantine

rules.

The amendment, approved by parlia-

ment yesterday, will allow the country’s

Public Health Office to have access to

location data from mobile phones spe-

cifically for the purpose of containing

the spread of the virus, which has so far

infected 216 people in the 5.5m-strong

central European nation.

Slovak officials said the measures

were inspired by similar legislation in

Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan,

where aggressive contact tracing has

played a crucial role in slowing the

spread of the virus.

But in the face of public anger the gov-

ernment was forced to clarify that only

limited data would be collected and that

it could be used only in connection with

the outbreak, after criticism the plan

might infringe citizens’ privacy rights.

Peter Pellegrini, the former prime

minister, raised questions about

whether the data could be misused, and

said the measure was an extreme step

that would only be justified under a

state of emergency, and “only for spe-

cific people in whom the disease has

been confirmed or are in compulsory

quarantine”.

Maria Kolikova, Slovakia’s justice

minister, acknowledged the move went

beyond what would be acceptable under

normal circumstances, but insisted that

in the face of the epidemic the right to

privacy was not absolute.

“Of course we realise that [these pro-

posals] are a violation of basic rights and

freedoms. But this is justified when

there is an appropriate purpose,” she

said. “I’m certain that if the protection

of health and life is at stake, legislation

like this is appropriate.”

The unease over the Slovak law

echoes debates around Europe. In Ger-

many, where hostility to surveillance is

deeply entrenched due to eavesdrop-

ping in East Germany under commu-

nism, the government was forced to

backtrack on proposals to use “techni-

cal means” to identify who had been in

c o n t a c t w i t h s i c k p e o p l e.

Additional reporting by Guz Chazan in

Berlin

Location surveillance

Slovakia to track victims

through telecoms data

M E H U L S R I VA STAVA— T E L AV I V

The Speaker of Israel’s Knesset quit

yesterday after the High Court ruled he

mustconveneparliamenttovoteonhis

replacement following this month’s

election result despite coronavirus

curbs barring most people from walk-

ingmorethan100metresfromhome.

Yuli Edelstein’s decision to resign rather

than refuse to obey the court has

averted a constitutional crisis but added

to suspicions that his ally, Benjamin

Netanyahu, the caretaker prime minis-

ter, is using the outbreak to prevent

Benny Gantz, his opponent, from form-

ing a government.

Israel will be locked down for a week,

with movement restricted except for

buying food or medicine or heading to

work in an essential sector.

Synagogues will shut after Mr Netan-

yahu urged his ultraorthodox health

minister to comply with the demands of

the medical community. The military

has prepared eight infantry battalions to

help police enforce the lockdown and

keep essential services running.

Mr Gantz, who has a parliamentary

majority of one, was asked last week by

president Reuven Rivlin to form a coali-

tion government. But Mr Edelstein, cit-

ing measures to thwart the coronavirus,

had initially refused to call parliament

to sit after the vote. The delay means Mr

Gantz’s alliance has not yet been able to

replace Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party

and its allies in key committees, and

take control of the legislative agenda.

Retaining the position of Speaker

gives Likud significant power.

After being ordered last week to con-

vene parliament, Mr Edelstein declined

to schedule the vote, declaring the court

had no authority over parliament.

Mr Edelstein has barricaded himself

in parliament, insisting his resignation

does not take effect for another 48

hours. That would defer the process of

replacing him until at least Sunday and

further delay handing the legislative

agenda to Mr Gantz’s Blue and White

party and its allies.

Mr Gantz has shunned a request from

Mr Netanyahu to form a unity adminis-

tration, saying he would not sit in gov-

ernment with his rival while he faces

corruption charges.

Power struggle

Israeli Speaker defies court

ruling on Knesset and resigns

A M Y K A Z M I N— N E W D E L H I

When Indian authorities ordered Mum-
bai, the country’s buzzing financial capi-
tal, to lock down to prevent the spread of
coronavirus, it triggered an exodus of
migrant workers.
Tens of thousands of people who nor-
mally drive taxis, run food stalls and
work in other small businesses fled for
their homes in rural India. Even the sus-
pension of all inter-city train services
and public buses failed to stop people
streaming out of India’s cities, making
long journeys home on foot as a sudden
curfew brought most activities to a halt.
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Naren-
dra Modi ordered all of the country’s
1.37bn people to stay inside their homes
for the next 21 days to try to beat the
virus.
But many experts fear that migrant
workers may have already unwittingly
carried coronavirus into India’s rural
hinterland, where the health infrastruc-
ture is woefully unprepared to cope with
a surge of patients.
“Given that travel right now is our big-
gest source of infections, this great
movement from cities to rural areas is
only going to make it worse,” said
Shamika Ravi, the director of research
at Brookings India, a think-tank.
“But there is a lockdown without an
economic package, [so] what are people
to do? They’ll walk home even if they
don’t have trains.”
The inability to anticipate the flight of
migrant workers out of big cities — or
prevent it with a relief package and
other initiatives to keep people in place
— is indicative of India’s wider chal-
lenges in dealing with the virus.
Until last week, Mr Modi’s govern-

ment was assuring Indians that it had

the outbreak under control, citing travel

restrictions on countries hit hard by the

virus and airport screening.

But with confirmed cases rising to 536

and 11 people dead, Mr Modi was forced

to act more decisively, bringing most

economic activities to a standstill.

In a television address on Tuesday, Mr

Modi said the curfew was necessary to

prevent the deadly pathogen from

“spreading like wildfire”.

It was a tacit admission that authori-

ties have little idea how pervasive is the

virus. Many are vulnerable because of

chronic malnutrition and ill health.

Public health experts said New Delhi

ignored warnings that airport screening

was of little use, given coronavirus carri-

ers could be asymptomatic for weeks.

New Delhi also appeared ambivalent

about increasing coronavirus testing,

which experts warned was critical to

trace the spread of the virus and help

slow transmission.

“There was a denial about whether

the epidemic would definitely come or

not,” said an Indian public health expert

involved in official coronavirus discus-

sions. “This denial was more psycho-

logical than scientific. Science was

always on the side of the inevitabil-

ity of the epidemic.”

New Delhi is now gearing up for

what epidemiologists have

warned will be a surge of

cases. India’s underfunded

health system only has

about 70,000 intensive

care beds and even fewer

ventilators.

In his address, Mr

Modi announced a spe-

cial $2bn allocation for

medical supplies to tackle the disease,

including protective equipment for

doctors.

“India is a country where in a crisis

everything comes together,” said one

senior government health official, who

asked not to be identified.

“The idea is to prepare for the surge. If

the numbers that we see in the studies

are correct, we will be having millions of

people infected. Our current health sys-

tem is not geared to respond to that

number of people. Massive efforts are

going on in terms of creating capacity.”

The government aims to set up spe-

cialised wards for coronavirus patients,

some in normal hospitals, while others

will be housed in other types of govern-

ment facilities, including hostels,

schools and sports facilities, to prevent

the spread of the virus to other patients.

While empty buildings may be availa-

ble, specialised medical equipment will

be harder to obtain, given global

demand. “It’s like the US in World War

II,” the health official said. “It’s like

another war here. We’ll have to ask any-

one who can to produce ventilators or

personal protective equipment.” Tests,

too, are still in short supply.

As India begins its protracted lock-

down, experts are ruing that India did

not expand its restrictive testing proto-

col far earlier. The delay will cause even

more difficulties for millions of poor

families, already reeling from a

long economic slowdown.

“We are not investing in the

knowledge required to stem this

thing,” said Ms Ravi. “It’s not just a

health crisis. It’s a humanitarian

crisis.”

Additional reporting by Stephanie

Findlay in New Delhi

India’s migrant workers head

back home to their villages

Outbreak threatens to turn into humanitarian crisis following authorities’ slow response

C L I V E C O O KS O N— S C I E N C E E D I TO R

Theendofwinteristraditionallyatime
for celebration. Not so in 2020, as the
arrival of spring in the northern hemi-
sphere has been overshadowed by
stringent lockdowns put in place to
slowthespreadofcoronavirus.

Yet in the battle against the pandemic,
some scientists see hope in the arrival of
warmer and sunnier weather. If Cov-
id-19 conforms to the seasonal pattern
of other respiratory infections, the com-
ing months will help the suppression of
the virus — at least temporarily.
Some studies have suggested that the
new coronavirus will indeed follow the
marked seasonality shown by its genetic
cousins that have been circulating
among humans for many years. This
research also suggests that Covid-19 will
find it harder to gain a foothold in the
tropics than in the world’s temperate
regions.
“Based on what we have documented
so far, it appears that the virus has a
harder time spreading between people
in warmer climates,” said Mohammad
Sajadi, an associate professor at the Uni-
versity of Maryland’s Institute of Virol-
ogy who has been studying the out-
break, which has infected close to
400,000 people around the world.
Scientists from Beihang and Tsinghua

universities in China, who have exam-

ined how coronavirus has been trans-

mitted in 100 Chinese cities, concluded

that “high temperature and high rela-

tive humidity significantly reduce the

transmission of Covid-19”.

Prof Sajadi’s research suggests that,

although the virus can spread any-

where, it transmits most effectively

between humans when humidity is low

and the temperature is between 5C and

11C.

At present, the areas most affected by

Covid-19 are between 30-50 degrees

north of the equator — which includes

most of China and the US, and the south-

ern portion of Europe.

But the Maryland team predict that

this belt of most intense viral transmis-

sion will move northward into northern

Europe and Canada over the coming

weeks — before slowing down across the

northern hemisphere in the summer,

while intensifying in the temperate

regions south of the equator. The Chi-

nese researchers have also predicted a

drop in transmission with the arrival of

summer.

However, a study at the University of

Basel in Switzerland and the Karolinska

Institute in Sweden — which involved

feeding seasonal data from other coro-

navirus outbreaks into the models of the

current pandemic — provided a note of

caution.

“The onset of spring and summer

could give the impression that [the

virus] has been successfully contained,

only for infections to increase again in

the 2020-21 winter,” it concluded.

That would give an epidemic curve

similar to the so-called Spanish flu pan-

demic of 1918-19, when three distinct

waves of infection were separated by

periods of fewer cases that lasted several

weeks.

The reasons why respiratory viruses

behave seasonally are not well under-

stood but scientists point to several con-

tributing factors. One is that although

viruses multiply within people at the

normal body temperature of about 37C,

they survive and transmit better out-

side the human body at a much lower

temperature and level of humidity.

A second factor is that people in tem-

perate regions spend more time close

together indoors during periods of

colder weather.

A third is that the human immune

system is less effective in winter, partly

because there is less sunshine to help in

the production of vitamin D.

However, there are dissenting scien-

tific voices, such as Marc Lipsitch, a Har-

vard University epidemiology professor

who believes some colleagues are exag-

gerating Covid-19’s likely seasonality.

“We may expect modest declines in the

contagiousness of [the virus] in warmer,

wetter weather,” he said, but it was “not

reasonable to expect these declines

alone to slow transmission enough to

make a big dent”.

Seasonal trends

Studies suggest warm weather can help suppress outbreak

‘Given that

travel right

now is our

biggest

source of

infections,

this great

movement

from cities

to rural

areas is only

going to

make it

worse’

CO R O N AV I R U S

Packed: migrant

workers and

their families

board a truck in

Ahmedabad

yesterday to

return to their

villages after a

21-day

lockdown was

announced by

Narendra Modi,

below

Amit Dave/Reuters

Rolling on:

a couple skate in

Battersea Park,

London, after

this week’s

government

lockdown

Justin Tallis/AFP/ Getty

‘Of course we realise that

[these proposals] are a

violation of basic rights

and freedoms’

MARCH 26 2020 Section:World Time: 25/3/2020 - 18:57 User: keith.allen Page Name: WORLD2 USA, Part,Page,Edition: USA, 3 , 1