Slave Soldiers and Islam_ The Genesis of a Military System - Daniel Pipes

58

TheIslamicateContext

existbeforeIslam.

Italso

explainswhy

so

many

oftheslavesol-

diers

camefrom

steppe

anddesert

regions.

Yeteventhe

stirruptheory

correlates

farlesswellthanIslam

does.Ifitwasthedecisivefactor,why,then,

didtheothernon-

horse-breedingareas(Hindu

IndiaandChinain700-1400

c.E.)

notalso

developmilitaryslavery?

Furthermore,manymilitary

slaveswerefootsoldiers,liketheblack

troops

inEgypt

andthe

Janissaries,

therenowned

elite

corps

oftheOttoman

Empire.

Something

besides

the

stirrup

musthavebeeninvolvedinthe

roleofslavesoldiersinIslamdom.

The

striking

correlationbetween

Islamand

militaryslavery

shownin

chapter

2 raises

the

possibility

ofacausalconnection

betweenthisreligion

andthis

pattern

of

military

recruitment.

However,

correlationalone,asstatisticiansandlogicians

never

tireof

pointing

out,doesnot

imply

causation.

Somecorrelations

are

merely

unrelated;noone

claims

significance

forthe"near-

perfect

correlations

betweenthedeathratein

Hyderabad,

Indiafrom 1911 to 1919,andvariationsinthe

membership

of

the InternationalAssociation of

Machinists

during

thesame

period.

’’9

Others arecounterlogical:

statisticsindicatethatthe

presence

of

fire

engines

at

firescorrelateswithmoredestructive

fires;canone

inferthatfireswouldbelessdestructiveifnofire

engines

were

dispatched?

10

High

correlationbetween

Islamand

militaryslavery

"canserveonlyasthestartingpoint

forfurther

investigation

andanalysis.

’’11

In

general,

"toestablishthe

reg-

ularistic

causal

proposition

thatXcausedY,three

things

mustbe

demonstrated.First,theremustbeacorrelationbetween

Xand

Y.Second,theremustbea

proper

temporalrelationship

intheir

occurrence,

Xi

mustoccurbefore

Y.

Third,theremustbeat

least

a

presumptiveagency

whichconnectsthem.

’’12

Inthecase

ofIslamand

militaryslavery,

correlationdoesexistand

thetem-

poralsequence

is

proper

(Islamprecededmilitaryslavery);

to

9.D.H. Fischer,Historians’Fallacies:Towardthe

Logic

of

Historical

Thought

(NewYork,1970),pp.

168-69.

10.R.M.MacIver,SocialCausation(Boston,1942),

p.

92.

11.Ibid.,p.93.

12. Fischer,

ttistorians’

Fallacies,p.

169.