GDP per head: $11,300 (PPP: $18,710)

Inflation: 3.1%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 5.0

Population: 1.40bn

The president, Xi Jinping, will use political capital gained from the rapid response to
covid-19 to press his domestic agenda, sidelining critics, tightening his grip on the
security apparatus and promoting allies to influential positions. In the face of mounting
antipathy from Western and regional powers, the government will redouble its
commitment to self-sufficiency in areas including energy and technology, while
exploiting the image of a hostile world to stoke domestic support. The economy will
bounce back from the slowdown in 2020.

Hong Kong

GDP growth: 2.4%

GDP per head: $50,670 (PPP: $62,030)

Inflation: 1.4%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 2.2

Population: 7.6m

The territory’s draconian new national-security law will keep protesters off the streets,
the “localist” movement out of public debate and the legislature packed with pro-
government officials. The authorities will seek to quell wider discontent by tackling
structural long-term issues such as a housing shortage, but the negative fiscal drag
imposed by covid-19 will delay plans. The economy will rebound, recovering much of