the ground lost to the virus, but the impact of Beijing’s assault on the “one country two
systems” model will prove hard to combat.

India

GDP growth: 6.7%

GDP per head: $2,150 (PPP: $6,850)

Inflation: 4.0%

Budget Balance (% GDP): - 6.8

Population: 1.39bn

In his second five-year term, the prime minister, Narendra Modi, is widely popular and
the opposition is weak, further strengthening his hand. But the virulent covid- 19
outbreak that erupted late in 2020 after the relaxation of an initial national lockdown—
and the extensive economic damage caused by the restrictions—highlight the risk of
social unrest. Communal clashes and protests by religious groups will erupt from time
to time. A programme of market liberalisation and infrastructure investment will be
accelerated to help rally an economy that has been battered by the pandemic.

TO WATCH: Pacific gravity. Further flare-ups will occur over infrastructure works on
the northern border with China, allying India more tightly with countries seeking to
restrain Chinese influence in the region.

Indonesia

GDP growth: 4.3%