Having declined by nearly 5% in 2020, global retail sales will expand by 3% in 2021.
Asia will lead the charge, with sales in Vietnam and China growing by around 4% and
the Philippines by 7%. India, having taken a beating in 2020, will not regain its former
lustre, with sales up 4%—sluggish by its standards. Africa’s retail boom must wait:
covid-19 has blighted incomes there. Globally, sales will be lower than before the
pandemic and retail, ever a cut-throat business, will get bloodier. Rivalry between
emerging-market retailers and foreign interlopers will intensify. Reliance Industries’
online marketplace, JioMart, will bring the fight to Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart.
Consumers’ covid-inspired buying habits will become ingrained. Under lockdown, 47%
of Americans over 55 started shopping more online, according to an e-Marketer survey;
many new converts will stick around. Because online shoppers crave slick delivery
services, sellers will be obliged to invest in technology and logistics, favouring deep-
pocketed players and encouraging tie-ups between retail, tech and payments firms. In
America, click-and-collect sales will climb by 10%, having ballooned by 60% in 2020.
In the coming years more people will shop from their sofas, check out goods using
augmented reality and order them via smart speakers. Retailers have a chance to cut the
cost of running physical stores: many will invest in improving their own websites or
listing on online marketplaces such as Amazon or Facebook Shops. Struggling stores