will morph into warehouses, losing out to big-box retailers that collect lots of brands
beneath one roof. Prepare for more bankruptcies.
Sport
The sports industry aspires to make a spectacular comeback in 2021 but will fail to
generate the $580bn in revenues predicted pre-pandemic. Postponed events will fill
schedules. In Tokyo, the Summer Olympics and Paralympics will stick proudly to their
name (“Tokyo 2020”) as they welcome more than 11,000 athletes and admit new sports
such as skateboarding and surfing. Medals will be made with metal recycled from 6.2m
mobile phones. The UEFA Euro 2020 football tournament, also postponed, will avoid
possible travel bans by spanning 12 European cities. Its sister tournament, the 2021
Copa América, will take place in Colombia and Argentina.
China, too, will stage postponed competitions after lifting a ban on international
sporting events imposed in mid-2020. Not postponed—coronavirus permitting—will be
the Rugby League World Cup in Britain, which has long been scheduled for late 2021.
The success of these events will drive the recovery of businesses in related industries,
from hospitality to the $85bn sports-betting market.
Even so, sponsors and advertisers will be wary of renewing contracts as corporate
finances falter, while social distancing limits ticket sales. Crowds will not live up to the
name, though fans unfazed by contagion risks are likely to snap up refunded tickets.
Millions will be content to watch the action online, where the e-sports industry will
mount a $1.2bn challenge. TV sports rights will stay cheap despite new bidders. That
augurs badly for America’s National Football League, whose $1bn deal with Disney
comes to a close after 2021.