A Climate for Change

Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Vulnerability to Climate Change in Croatia – a Summary^175

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Croatia

• a Summary of Section 2

Chapter 11

11.1. Potential vulnerability

Climate variability and perhaps climate change is al-
ready impacting human development in Croatia and the
choices that people can make to improve their lives. The
analysis in the previous chapters has shown that signifi-
cant portions of society and the economy are vulnerable
to variability in the existing climate and to changes in the
climate in the future. As shown in previous chapters, the
vulnerable parts of the Croatian economy account for al-
most 25% of the Croatian economy – EUR 9.226 billion
per year. Furthermore, many of these sectors have a di-
rect impact on human development – especially among
vulnerable groups. Existing climate variability – some re-
cent aspects of which may be due to climate change, but
are difficult to distinguish – has already had a large im-
pact on Croatia. In the agricultural sector alone, climate
variability (including droughts and floods) already cost
farmers an average of EUR 176 million during 2000-2007.
The drought in 2003 cost Croatia approximately EUR 63-
96 million in compensation for the losses in electrical
production due to less river flow.

• Future climate change has the potential to result
  in increased negative impacts on various systems
  in Croatia, though some positive impacts may
  also emerge. Climate models predict changes
  during 2040-2070 and again towards the end of
  the century.


• Foreign tourists may decide not to come to Croatia
  because of increases in hot weather, heat waves
  and other extreme weather events. Furthermore,
  some ‘natural-beauty’ tourist sites, such as Krka
  National Park and Plitvice Lakes National Park
  may be vulnerable to climate impacts either due
  to warmer temperatures and decreased precipita-
  tion or sea-level rise.
  
  
  • On the other hand, the tourism season may ex-
    tend further into the spring and autumn, result-
    ing in more income for coastal tourism based
    communities.
  
  
  • Sea-level rise may cause flooding in coastal areas –
    perhaps submerging over 100 million square me-
    tres of land if the sea rises over half a metre. This
    area includes urban areas such as Krapanj Island,
    some areas of Split and others. It also includes
    agricultural land – for instance the entire Neretva
    River Delta. Freshwater resources such as Vrana
    Lake, near Biograd, and the Krka River may also be
    affected. This may require significant adaptation
    investment, but over a long period of time, as the
    sea level will rise gradually and the level of rise is
    uncertain – which will allow for gradual planning.
  
  
  • Both positive and negative health impacts are also
    possible because of climate change – including
    cardio-vascular impacts on the elderly due to heat
    waves and less mortality due to milder winters.
    There may also be shifts in allergy patterns.
  
  
  • Hydropower production will probably drop (per-
    haps by as much as 50%) due to reduced river dis-
    charges caused by decreases in precipitation.
  
  
  • Ecosystem services provided by wetlands – such
    as pollution removal, flood control, and the scenic
    value of forests – may be reduced because of de-
    creased precipitation.
  
  
  • Drinking water and groundwater supplies – while
    unlikely to face significant immediate risks – may
    be vulnerable in some areas.
  
  
  • Agricultural yields of maize, and undoubtedly a
    number of other crops, may drop due to increased
    droughts, decreased soil moisture, and increased
    evapotransporation due to higher temperatures,
    even if management practices are adjusted.
  
  
  
  

Existing climate

variability – some

recent aspects

of which may be

due to climate

change, but

are difficult to

distinguish –

already has a

large impact on

Croatia