(^176) Vulnerability to Climate Change in Croatia – a Summary Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
- The fishing and mariculture industries may face
challenges due to changing sea temperatures.
These changes may mean increases in invasive
species and changes in the ideal locations for
mariculture and fishing practices. However, the
positive impact of increased productivity of fish
and better economic conditions may also occur.
Additionally, the potential impacts on the economy
may be larger than the sum of each sector due to
multiplier effects from impacts on specific sectors.
Increases in energy costs, food costs, and other eco-
nomic impacts may have ripple effects on the Croa-
tian economy, though this cannot be measured with
the current information available.
Most of these impacts will have a particularly strong
effect on the more vulnerable groups within Croatia.
This includes poorer people who may have difficulty
paying for energy and food; rural poor who are depen-
dent on agriculture for nourishment; elderly people,
due to their higher rates of poverty and vulnerability
to health impacts; and low-income wage earners who
are supported by the tourist economy. On the other
hand, if food prices rise, those dependent on subsis-
tence agriculture may be relatively better off, as they
do not buy their food.
Climate change has the potential to have significant
negative impacts on the Croatian economy and soci-
ety – making human life more difficult and decreas-
ing human development opportunities. While it is not
possible to assess the economic impacts in terms of its
effect on Croatia’s GDP, some impacts in some sectors
can be roughly estimated. This Report’s analysis does
not explore the likely projected values of economic
goods in the future. However, if priced in 2008 terms,
it can be seen that the impact is potentially quite large
in various sectors – see Table 11-1.11.2. Underlying framework for
adaptation strategiesGiven that current climate variability is already affect-
ing human development in Croatia and the impacts
may increase due to future climate change, action will
need to be taken to reduce current risks and prevent
future damage. However, this Report shows that there
are a number of limiting factors in assessing future
vulnerability. First, little work has been carried out to
downscale changes in climate to relevant spatial and
temporal scales. Second, little work is being carried
out to simulate the physical and economic damages of
climate change in the sectors investigated. Third, little
is being done to evaluate the benefits and costs of al-
ternative adaptation policies and measures. The lack of
knowledge results in the limited ability of national and
local governments to formulate and implement poli-
cies to help reduce the damages from climate change.
These shortcomings need to be addressed first.
In the meantime, both the Croatian Government and
the private sector should recognise that many of the
activities they undertake today, to cope with climate
variability, economic development pressures and en-
vironmental quality, can also improve the adaptive
capacity of the country and make it less vulnerable to
climate change. At the same time, the databases and
tools they need to develop to analyse policies deal-
ing with climate variability are not very different from
those needed to evaluate alternatives for adapting
to climate change. This “no regrets” approach to de-
veloping both the technical capacity to simulate the
impacts of climate change and to evaluate adaptation
measures, and the institutional capacity to formulate
and implement adaptation policy, will produce posi-
tive dividends in coping with a wide range of current
stress factors and future climate change.The potential
impacts on the
economy may
be larger than
the sum of each
sector due to
multiplier effects
from impacts on
specific sectors