A Climate for Change

Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 The Croatian Climate^37

3.2. General characteristics of

the Croatian climate

Croatia’s climate is determined by its geographic
location in the North mid-latitudes, modified by its
topography and the influence of the Adriatic and
the Mediterranean Seas. For this analysis, the coun-
try’s geographic areas are divided into the Northern
coastal area (Istria and Hrvatsko Primorje), the South-
ern Adriatic coastal area (Dalmatia), the mountainous
area (the Dinarides mountain belt), the Panhonnian
Plain (Slavonia) and the Zagreb urban area. Examin-
ing the recordings from weather stations in these ar-
eas can provide basic information about the climate
in various Croatian regions in various seasons. It is
important that the data used in this analysis repre-
sent seasonal averages and therefore do not capture
extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy
rainfall. An analysis of the climate conditions in Croa-
tia over the baseline period 1961-1990 shows that
temperatures are mildly warm in the summer and
not terribly cold during the winter, though there are
defined seasons.

Climate parameters are highly variable from year to
year, so data must be taken over long periods of time
(100 years) to spot trends. During the 20th century,
there has been a decreasing trend in precipitation and
an increasing trend in temperature for most places,
during most seasons. It is not possible to distinguish
how much of this is due to natural climate fluctuations
or human influence, but models of the climate future
for Croatia point to significant changes in the climatic
conditions. Actual seasonal temperatures and precipi-
tation for the various regions can be found in Figure
3-6 and Figure 3-7, which examine current character-
istics compared to projected future changes to the
end of the 21st century.

3.3. Anticipated changes to the

Croatian climate in the future

Although there are limited studies specifically cover-

ing Croatia, it has been included in a number of wider

studies. As climate models have different strengths

and weaknesses, one climate model cannot be ex-

pected to ‘predict’ the future. Additionally, climate is

dependent on the amount of GHG emissions released

into the air (See Annex 3). Finally, there are two basic

types of models – global climate models (GCMs) and

regional downscaled climate models (RCMs), which

provide more geographic detail. Annex 3 has a de-

tailed discussion of these different types of models.

By looking at various models we can see the probable

outcomes of climate change trends. The two main

aspects of climate - temperature, measured at two

metres above the ground, and precipitation (mostly

rainfall and snow) - are analysed below.

For the purposes of this Report, a combination of a

number of models – including a number of down-

scaled regional models – have been analysed in order

to show predictive climate trends in Croatia. The anal-

ysis is divided into the near term (until 2025) the me-

dium term (from 2041- 2070) and the long term (from

2080 until the end of the century).

2025

For the near future, there seems to be only one study

which includes Croatia.I This study predicts that aver-

age temperatures in Croatia in 2025 will have increased

I A group of authors (Coşkun, Demir, and Kiliç 2008) from the Turk-

ish State Meteorological Service, Department of Research and Data

Processing, Kalaba, Ankara, has performed a climate change study

based on the B1 emission scenario for projections until 2025 using

a Regional Climate Model.