(^38) The Croatian Climate Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
by a maximum of 1°C (winter, summer and autumn),
while spring temperatures will remain the same. No
significant differences in precipitation are expected in
most regions (with a maximum change of -2.5% along
the coast in autumn). It is important to note that these
are projections for a scenario of relatively low emis-
sions growth and are only forecast until 2025.
2041-2070
In estimating the likely climate change for Croatia from
the period 2041-2070, the Meteorological and Hydrolog-
ical Service of Croatia (DHMZ) predictions are presented
in Table 3-1. Maps that indicate these changes are includ-
ed in Figure 3-2, Figure 3-3, Figure 3-4, and Figure 3-5: II
II Branković, Patarčić, and Srnec 2008. The results are derived from the three-member ensemble integrations of the global EH5OM model,
from the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. The horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km. The period 1961-
1990 (the “present” climate) and the period 2041-2070 (the future climate) under the IPCC A2 scenario are analysed and compared.
III See, for example, the results from Barnett et al. 2006, Clark et al. 2006, Tebaldi et al. 2006
Season Impacts and Changes Notes
Winter - Northern Croatia will experience a warming
of 2.5°C while the rest of Croatia will warm by
between 2° and 2.5°C.
- This will be more important for inland rather
than coastal Croatia.- Winter is the only season which does not
show a difference in precipitation, though
there may be a slight increase in the north
and a slight decrease in the south. - Surface snow in northern Croatia will be-
come uncertain. Snow is important for soil
moisture - affecting the availability of soil
moisture required for the subsequent grow-
ing season.
Spring - Croatia will be 1.5°C warmer throughout the
country and at sea.
- Winter is the only season which does not
- A slight drying trend is expected in southern
and western Croatia during spring (-0.1 mm per
day – which means 9 mm less for the season).- A statistically significant reduction in soil
moisture in the spring (March, April and
May) is expected throughout Croatia. In ad-
dition, inter-annual variation in soil moisture
will increase.
- A statistically significant reduction in soil
Summer - Temperatures will increase by 3.5°C in the north-
ern Adriatic and in other parts the temperature
will increase between 3° and 3.5°C.- During summer, there will be 9 mm less rain per
month in the east (27 mm for the season). This
represents a more than 10% drop. In the rest of
the country, there will be a drop of 0.2 mm/day
in precipitation (18 mm less for the season).- There will probably be more heat waves.III
- These expected changes in temperature will
be similar for all years - This model predicts a reduction in the sum-
mer convective precipitation (downpours)
over many parts of Croatia; this amounts to
about one third to one half of the reduction
in total precipitation.
Autumn - Temperatures will increase by 2.5°C mostly
uniformly throughout Croatia.- Precipitation levels will drop 27 mm for the sea-
son in the south on the coast, Moving northward
along the coast, the reduction will be 18 mm for
the season - In the northern part of the country (including
Istria and most of the eastern part of Croatia) the
reductions will be 9 mm for the season
Table 3-1: Results of the DHMZ climate model for 2040-2070.