(^82) Coastal Zone and Sea-Level Rise Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
(for both 0.50m and 0.88m) and the corresponding
value of the land affected (based on minimum and
maximum 2008 land prices) (See Table 5-3).IV This
valuation methodology represents the highest prob-
able loss of value, as land values will either be lost or
protected depending on whether or not the popula-
tion moves inland and re-establishes the community
and thus economic activity. However, the valuation
does not reflect the forest, beach and marshland areas
that may be lost. Despite this significant shortcoming,
which was impossible to evaluate within the scope of
the Report, these estimates do capture the value of
the property at risk if nothing is done and sea-level
rises to this extent due to climate change.^13
Using this approach, the following results were ob-
tained:
- Sea-level rise of 0.50 metres: estimated loss of
EUR 2.80-6.50 billion (which would be distributed
over the next century) (see Figure 5-7). - Sea-level rise of 0.88 metres: estimated loss of
EUR 3.22-7.18 billion (which would also be dis-
tributed over the next century) (see Figure 5-8).
Several other factors affected the legitimacy of the
valuation methodology used and should be taken
into consideration when discussing the results:- The measurement of submerged land may not
be completely accurate due to the relatively poor
resolution of the Digital Elevation Model. - The types of land were estimated using Corine
Land Cover Data, which only has a resolution of 25
metres. Within these 25 metres there can be dras-
tic changes in the type of land use. However, the
physical plan was unavailable in Geographical In-
formation System (GIS) format. - The value estimates of the types of land lost cover
the entire coastline. This approach does not cap-
ture important variations from place to place. In
addition, the value of agricultural land is hard to
determine, because it reflects not only the value of
the products grown (largely deciduous fruit), but
also the potential future value of the land, such as
for urban development.- Estimating the value and possible loss of value of
the forest, beach and fresh water sources (such
as the Neretva River, the Krka River, or Vrana Lake
near Biograd) will require significantly more eco-
nomic research. While most of the forests located
directly on the coast are not used for timber supply
purposes, they have economic value that can be
measured in terms of the recreation and ecosystem
services they provide. Further, the potential losses
to biodiversity, due to the damage to particularly
vulnerable areas, is not measured in economic
terms, though these impacts would be significant,
for instance, the Vrana Lake Nature Park.
It is important to note that the land in the Neretva
River Delta is important for agricultural production
and would probably be worth far more than the 5-30
EUR per square metre estimate in this calculation.
Similarly, roads and ports are potentially worth signifi-
cantly more than the estimated value of 50-100 EUR
per square metre used. This is the estimated value of
constructing a road and does not reflect the price of
land or how much it would cost to move the road to
higher ground. There are many such values that are
questionable, but the numbers give a sense of the po-
tential scale of the impact.IV Prices per square metre of land are based upon expert judgement
by UNDP – Croatia’s “COAST” project (Conservation and Sustainable
Use of Biodiversity in the Dalmatian Coast).