Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Coastal Zone and Sea-Level Rise^83
5.4. Addressing sea-level rise
Sea-level rise is projected to occur quite slowly and
the possibility of a sudden and large sea-level rise is
quite small. The timing of sea-level rise is a very impor-
tant factor in evaluating adaptation options to adjust
to it. If the sea-level rises gradually, the populations
and economic activities at risk have adequate time
to respond and to carefully evaluate the alternative
actions they will take. These options would include
protecting property and structures from flooding
and retreating from the coastline and re-establishing
populations and economic activity further inland, or a
mixture of the two.V Gradual sea-level rise also allows
adaptation measures to take place slowly using short-
term measures, instead of immediately making large
investments in adaptation, that turn out to be based
on faulty sea-level rise projections. This approach also
allows coastal planners and resource managers the
possibility of “learning-by-doing” over time. The time-
span during which these actions can be expected to
take place also makes it difficult to calculate the future
benefits associated with avoiding damages from sea-
level rise and the costs of avoiding these damages.
This does not mean that the best strategy is to wait
until there is better evidence of sea-level rise before
looking at the alternatives. Indeed, many countries are
already looking at alternatives. While the benefits and
costs of protecting European coastlines have been es-
timated for a number of countries around the world,
no estimates exist for Croatia.VI
Adaptation planning in Croatia could start by develop-
ing a more detailed map of the physical characteristics
of coastal areas, the infrastructure and economic ac-Figure 5-7: Estimated maximum and minimum value of
area lost, by type, if sea level rises 0.50 metresFigure 5-8: Estimated maximum and minimum value of
area lost, by type, if sea level rises 0.88 metres.Total minimum value of covered area
min (x1000 EUR)
Total maximum value of covered area
max (x1000 EUR)Value of area (x1000 EUR)6,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,0000
ForestsBeaches/ Sand DunesSalinesFreshwater and marshesAgricultural land
Sport/ leisure facilitiesRoads/ railwaysUrban/ semiurban
Ports/ marine installationsIndustrial activity areas
Type of area coveredType of area coveredTotal value covered at 88 cm SLR (lower
bound)
Total value covered at 88 cm SLR
(upper bound)Total Value (x1000 EUR)6,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,0000
ForestsBeaches/ Sand DunesSalinesFreshwater and marshesAgricultural land
Sport/ leisure facilitiesRoads/ railwaysUrban/ semiurban
Ports/ marine installationsIndustrial activityV Studies that compare the protection and retreat options include:
Yohe and Neumann 1997, Yohe and Schlesinger 1998, Fankhauser- Assessments of the costs and benefits of protecting popula-
tions from sea level rise include Nicholls, Leatherman, Dennis, and
Volonte 1995, Nicholls and Lowe 2004, Tol, Klein, and Nicholls 2008.
VI A limited coastal data base is included in the DIVA Dynamic In-
teractive Vulnerability Assessment) model. This model was used in
the EU’s PESETA project to estimate the benefits and costs of coastal
protection in the EU. However, the report covering the coastal im-
pacts for Croatia has not been published.