Encyclopedia of Leadership

3.2

THE SIGMOID CURVE: ANTICIPATING AND

PREPARING FOR CHANGE DESPITE CURRENT SUCCESS

Inspired by Charles Handy.

Everything has its ups, downs, and plateaus. Nothing lasts forever, including success. So, to

succeed in the long term, leaders need to anticipate and start working toward a new future—

strange as it may sound—even before that future actually begins to take shape. This tool pro-

vides a way of thinking about the future that cautions you not to take success for granted. It

suggests the need to begin planning for change during times when things are on the upturn—

be it of a product, service, investment, or even the success of your own leadership career!

Consider these ups and downs: Apple Macintosh—a product’s ups and downs; the Soviet

Empire—a country’s life cycle; romantic relationships—Shakespeare’s observation, “The course

of true love never did run smooth.”

“A good life is probably a succession of sigmoid curves, each new curve started before the first curve fades.”

—Charles Handy. THE AGE OF PARADOX

Such ups and downs can be illustrated by two intersecting curves, known as the Sigmoid

Curves. The word sigmoidmeans a double curve in an S shape.

Curve Arepresents the current and projected life cycle. Notice that the curve has a slow

start, an acceleration to a plateau, and then a tailing off. The second curve represents a future

success scenario. Like a booster rocket on a spacecraft, you must plan to jettison the first rock-

et and ignite the next, to take you into a new orbit. The trick is:

➠ to plan the abandonment of the first curve while things are still going well;

➠ to make the most of the first curve (curve A) before making a major commitment to

the second curve (curve B); and

➠ to realize that, for a while, new ideas need to coexist with the old.

The fact that you are reading this book probably means you are somewhere on curve A

looking for improvement, possibly to your own career. The appropriate place to start thinking

about the second curve is while you are still approaching the peak of curve A(i.e., while you

are still ascending on the curve). For most people, however, real energy for change comes only

when they are looking disaster in the face (e.g., being laid off, failing to meet a business goal,

A

B

The Sigmoid Curve Successive Sigmoid Curves

SECTION 3 TOOLS FORSTRATEGICTHINKING 73

Reprinted by permission of Harvard Business School Press. From The Age of Paradoxby Charles Handy. Boston MA.
1994, pp, 52. Copyright 1994 by Charles Handy.