their product or service no longer selling). These disasters typically take place after Curve Ahas
peaked and is tailing off. Being complacent while on the crest of curve A,they didn’t see them
coming! The Japanese word kaizen, or continuous improvement, is based on the assumption
that there is no perfect answer in a changing world, and that complacency is the enemy of
long-term success.
“One of the paradoxes of success is that the things ...which got you there, are
seldom those that keep you there.”
—Charles Handy, THE AGE OF PARADOXLeaders are concerned that the first curve will turn down before they are able to find the
second curve. Leaders need to anticipate and get on to the second curve as soon as possible, or
preferably before the first curve begins its downturn. But few want their peaceful existence on
the first curve to be disturbed until after the downturn begins! By then, however, it may be too
late. The trick is to find the second curve while still keeping the first one going. This requires
personal flexibility and tolerance for change and ambiguity.
HOW TO USE THIS LEADERSHIP TOOL
A stranger at the side of the road gives you these directions: “It’s easy to find. Just keep going the way you are
and after a while you’ll come across a small bridge with Davy’s Bar on the far side. You can’t miss it. Then, a
half mile before you get there, turn to your right and go up the hill.”
—Charles Handy, THE AGE OF PARADOXIn this fast-moving world, sigmoid curves are increasingly accelerated. Today, business strate-
gies often need to be replaced within two or three years, and product life cycles are shorter
than in the past. Consider some of the products, services, or strategies to which you presently
attribute your success as a leader. Graph where each of these might presently be on the first
sigmoid curve here. (You may also wish to use this tool to examine your career or work rela-
tionships.)
WEB WORKSHEET
74 SECTION 3 TOOLS FORSTRATEGICTHINKING