❑ If there’s a chain of argument, ensure that every link in the chain works.
❑ When two hypotheses explain the data equally well, choose the simpler of the two;
(this is known as Occam’s razor).
❑ Determine whether the hypothesis can be falsified. (It is far easier to prove some-
thing wrong than right!)
❑ Learn group leadership skills. (They are designed to help you minimize errors of
logic.)- Think of a decision that you or your workgroup is currently facing. Check () which
errors of logic you might be particularly vulnerable to making, given your own past his-
tory of decision making and the circumstances of this particular decision.
RELATED LEADERSHIP TOOLS
1.9 Paradigms 6.4 Discussing Messes 7.1 Problem Framing
6.2 Assumption Analysis 6.6 Six-Hat Thinking 7.3 Finding Cause
FOR FURTHER ASSISTANCE
Paulos, John. Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences,2nd ed. Vintage Books, 1990.
Sagan, Carl. The Demon-Haunted World: Science As a Candle in the Dark.Ballantine Books, 1996.
172 SECTION 6 TOOLS FORCRITICALTHINKING ANDINNOVATION
__Attacking the person, not the
problem
__Vague terms
__Defining the problem as a
solution
__An either-or false dichotomy
__Confusing association and
correlation with causation
__Sequence means cause__The statistics of small numbers
__Misunderstanding the nature of
statistics
__Incorrect conclusions—non
sequitur(It does not follow.)
__Pleading
__Blindly trusting authority
__Selective observation__Inconsistency
__Caricaturing
__Slippery slope (domino theory)
__Appealing to ignorance
__Short-term versus long-term;
tactics versus strategy
__Weasel wordsWhat specific actions can you or your workgroup take to avoid making these errors of logic?