6.2
ASSUMPTION ANALYSIS: TESTING DECISIONS
BY EXAMINING THEIR UNDERLYINGBIASES
Inspired by Ralph Kilmann.Leaders can improve their decision making by first outlining options for action, then examin-
ing the assumptions held by supporters of these options. This tool will help you surface and
challenge your own and other people’s assumptions, as a way of ensuring quality of decisions
in complex and dynamic business environments.
SECTION 6 TOOLS FORCRITICALTHINKING ANDINNOVATION 173
Step
Agree on options
for action.❑ State two or more distinct options for action.Step
Work with all
groups as a whole.❑ Each option group shares its stakeholder list, and assumptions about each stakeholder
group. Others are encouraged to challenge, ask questions, and discuss these
assumptions; assumptions are thus surfaced and modified.Step
Strive for synthesis
among options.❑ Resolve issues that remain among options. One method is to form a number of
synthesis subgroups to see which of these subgroups can come up with the best
synthesis of the remaining options.Step
For each option
group:❑ List the stakeholder groups: those with a vested interest in each unique option.
❑ Briefly summarize the wants, needs, and expectations of each stakeholder group.
❑ List assumptions held by each stakeholder group (i.e., “What assumptions would have to
be true for each stakeholder group to maximize their support for each option?”).
❑ State each assumption in a form that maximizes support for your option, no matter how
obvious or ridiculous it may seem.
❑ Quantify the importance and plausibility of each assumption. Identify the most
important and most uncertain assumption (i.e., the critical regionin the assumption
matrix).
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Step
Form option
groups.❑ Organize people into subgroups that support each option.➟
Step
Test the final,
agreed-upon
option for action.❑ Verify the final option or decision, possibly through methods such as survey research,
questions to other leaders, interviews with customers, and so on.➟
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