Encyclopedia of Leadership

ASSUMPTION MATRIX

Certain

Trivia Important facts

Least Most
Important Important

Not important anyway Critical region

Uncertain

HOW TO USE THIS LEADERSHIP TOOL

“Decision Trap Number 4:

Overconfidence in Your Judgment. Failing to collect key factual information

because you are too sure of your assumptions and options.”

—Russo and Schoemaker, DECISION TRAPS

WEB WORKSHEET

Use this approach to surface and analyze the assumptions that underlie decisions, particularly

when significant consequences might result from making a poor decision. Use this template to

surface and challenge assumptions, and thus test decisions that you or your group are in the

process of making.

Copyright McGraw-Hill 2000. Original purchasers of this book are permitted to photocopy or customize this worksheet by downloading it from
http://www.books.mcgraw-hill.com/training/download.The document can then be opened, edited, and printed using Microsoft Word or other word processing
software.

174 SECTION 6 TOOLS FORCRITICALTHINKING ANDINNOVATION

Step 

Determine

options.

Step

Form option

groups.

Step 

Form each option

group.

Step 

Work with the

whole group.

Step 

Strive for

synthesis among

options.

Step

Test the final

option.

What options or alternatives seem possible, given the circumstances of this situation?

[☛7.1 Problem Framing]

What subgroups or individuals seem to support each option?

[☛5.7 Stakeholder Groups]

Have each option group surface and state the assumptions that must be true for each stakeholder group,

in order for their option to be optimal. (Do this no matter how obvious, interesting, or absurd these

assumptions may appear.)

Have each option group share its findings from step 3 with the group as a whole. Invite challenge and

support to ensure all assumptions are surfaced, made explicit, and stated clearly.

[☛10.9 Visible Information]

Given the assumptions that have surfaced and corresponding implications for each option, strive to

arrive at a better option. Use a synthesis of the research that has been completed for each of the original

options.

What steps will you take to verify the selected or final option with key stakeholder groups? (Use

Assumption Matrix to test and verify.)