The Economist - UK (2021-11-20)

54 Middle East & Africa TheEconomistNovember20th 2021

streets in protest. They were angrynotjust

abouttheelectionbutalsoaboutcorrup­

tion and deteriorating security. Many

cheereda coupledbyColonelAssimiGoïta

inAugustofthatyear.Althoughheprom­

isedto holdelectionswithin 18 months

andappointeda civilianasinterimpresi­

dent,hesoonchangedhismindanduseda

secondcoupinMaythis yearto install

himselfinthetopjob.

ChoguelMaïga,hiscivilianprimemin­

ister,recentlysaidthatelectionspromised

forFebruarycouldbe delayedby“afew

months”.Itwillprobablybemuchlonger.

“Electionshavegivenuswhatfor 30 years?

Endemiccorruption,lethargy andnepo­

tism,” says Oumarou Diarra, a former

imamwhoisnowinthegovernment.The

putschistsclaimtheyneedmoretimeto

“refound”thestateafteryearsofcorrup­

tionandbadgovernment.ManyMalians

believethem.A pollofBamakoresidentsin

September found that 75% wanted the

electionspostponed.

General Marc Conruyt, who recently

commandedFrenchforcesintheregion,

arguesthat“thepoliticalupheavalandpo­

liticaldifficultiesinBamakohada very,ve­

rylimitedimpact”onmilitaryoperations.

Butthatmaynotlast.Torallysupportfora

much longer transition, Mali’s interim

governmenthasrepeatedlyblamedFrance

forthecountry’swoes.MrMaïgarecently

claimed,absurdly,thatFranceistraining

jihadists. Yet he also complainedabout

Franceclosingsomebasesandaboutits

planstowithdrawalmosthalfofitstroops.

ComplicatingmattersfurtherareMali’s

plans to hire Wagner Group, a Russian

mercenaryoutfit. “Whenyoucalla doctor

[because]...yourfingershurtbutnowyour

wholearm is missing,” says Mr Diarra,

“youshouldchangedoctor.”Yetthisisa

dangerous game,especially as MrGoïta

wouldprobablypreferFrancetostayde­

spite his government’s taunts. Florence

Parly,theFrenchdefenceminister,warns

thathercountry“willnotbeabletocohabit

withmercenaries”if Wagnerdeploys.

Politicsistangledupwithsecurity—

andviolence—intheprovinces,too(see

map).Manyjihadistsarepoliticalfigures

witha following.IyadAgGhali,theleader

of Jama’at Nasr al­Islam wal Muslimin,

whichislinkedtoal­Qaeda,wasnotalways

a jihadist.Hefirstcametoprominenceasa

Tuareg rebel leader. Many jihadists in

northern Mali remain linked to Tuareg

separatist groups. A peace agreement

signedin2015,whichcouldreducesomeof

theangerthatdrivespeopletowardsvio­

lence,hasnotbeenfullyimplemented.

IncentralMali,whereviolenceisnow

worsethaninthenorth,jihadistshaveex­

ploited rifts between communities and

posedasdefenders oftheFulaniethnic

group.MilitiassuchasDanNaAmbassa­

gou(“HunterswhotrustinGod”)claimto

defendotherethnicgroups.Theresultis

tit­for­tatmassacres.Asimilardynamicis

tearingatthesocialfabricinBurkinaFaso

andNiger.Peacerequiresnotjustschools

andclinicsbutalsoideasabouthowbestto

sharepowerinmulti­ethniccommunities.

ManyMaliansbelievethattalkswithji­

hadistscouldprovidesomeideas.France,

whichhaslostover 50 soldiersintheSahel

since2013,opposesthatidea.Still,there

havebeenmorethan 40 localpeacedeals

inMaliandplentyinBurkinaFaso,too.

Somearebetweenclashingethnicgroups,

butothersincludethejihadists.

High­level political negotiations be­

tweentheMaliangovernmentandsenior

jihadist leaders would require a bigger

leap.TheMaliangovernmentrecentlyan­

nouncedthatsuchtalkswouldbeginand

then,dayslater,deniedit.Manysuspect

Frenchpressurewasbehindtheflip­flop,

but there are alsotensionsbetween Mr

Goïta,whoisthoughtto favournegotia­

tions,andMrMaïga,whoismoresceptical.

ThetroubleisthattheMaliangovern­

mentwillnotbeenteringintoanynegotia­

tionsfroma positionofstrength.“Thesta­

bility of the Sahel”, intones Mr Diarra

gravely,“dependsonthestabilityofMali.”

Heisquiterightaboutthat.Butitishardly

a reasonforoptimism. n

Counting the human cost

Deaths from conflict*

Sources:ACLED;

JoséLuengo-Cabrera

*Includes all reported civilian and

combatant deaths †To Nov 12th

6,000

,000

2,000

0

21†20191817162015

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

NIGER

GUINEA

GHANA

IVORYCOAST

BENIN

NIGERIA

MALI

MAURITANIA

ALGERIA

BURKINA

FASO

SAHEL Outtagouna Menaka

Gao

Bamako

TOGO

SAHEL

Civilianskilledbyjihadistgroups

BurkinaFaso,MaliandNiger,2021* Deaths

Sources:ACLED;JoséLuengo-Cabrera *ToNov12th

10 100

00 km

UgandaandIslamicState

Whodunnit?

P

lumes of smokerose  above  Kampala,

Uganda’s capital, after a bomb blew up

near the central police station on Novem­

ber 16th, followed minutes later by a blast

on  a  road  that  runs  past  the  parliament.

Counter­terrorism police then shot dead a

man  who  they  said  was  carrying  a  device

intended to set off a third explosion. 

Police said that seven people, including

three  suicide­bombers,  died  in  the  blasts,

which  injured  another  36  people.  They

were  quick  to  blame  “radicalised  groups”

linked  to  the  Allied  Democratic  Forces

(adf),  a  rebel  outfit  based  in  the  neigh­

bouring Democratic Republic of Congo. Is­

lamic  State  (is),  which  counts  the  adf

among  its  affiliates,  later  said  that  it  was

behind the attacks.

The  bombings  did  not  come  out  of  the

blue. Last month a waitress was killed by a

blast  in  a  Kampala  bar,  for  which  is also

claimed  responsibility.  Two  days  later  a

man detonated a bomb on a bus, killing on­

ly  himself.  More  tenuously,  the  govern­

ment has blamed the adf for a string of at­

tacks on public figures, including an assas­

sination attempt in June on a government

minister  and  former  army  commander.

Those  shootings,  carried  out  by  men  on

motorcycles,  followed  a  different  pattern

from  the  recent  bombings.  The  evidence

linking them to the adfseems shaky.

The adf was born in the 1990s in a mar­

riage of convenience between Islamist re­

bels and ethnic separatists from the Rwen­

zori mountains straddling the border with

Congo. It mounted several bomb attacks in

Uganda before decamping to lawless east­

ern  Congo,  pursued  by  Uganda’s  army.  It

found a niche there among a patchwork of

rival  militias,  looting  villages  and  smug­

gling timber. At one point it had shrunk to

just a few dozen fighters.

The adf is plainly making a comeback.

Last year it killed at least 800 Congolese ci­

vilians  and  forced  thousands  to  flee  their

homes. In one attack this month it massa­

cred 38 people in the Congolese town of Be­

ni,  slitting  their  throats  or  burning  them

alive. It has been reinvigorated by a grow­

ing  network  of  recruits  across  east  Africa,

who share bomb­making skills and may be

inspired by wider Islamist influences. Last

year Musa Seka Baluku, leader of one adf

faction,  declared  that  his  group  was  now

the  “Central  Africa  Province  of  Islamic

State”. In March the American government

designated  it  a  foreign  terrorist  organisa­

K AMPALA

Is Islamic State behind a spate of

bombings in Uganda?