The Economist - 04.12.2021

The Economist December 4th 2021 Europe 37

German-Americanrelations

High-pressure

umbrage

O

lafscholzandJoeBidenseemtobe

destinedtohaveascordiala relation­

shipasAngelaMerkelandBarackObama

did.TheincomingGermanchancellorand

theAmericanpresidentarebothAtlanti­

cistsonthecentre­leftoftheirrespective

politicalspectrumswhoarecommittedto

fighting climate change. Mr Scholz has

calledAmerica“Europe’sclosestandmost

importantpartner”.Asfinanceministerhe

gotonwellwiththeBidenadministration.

Evenso,onegeopoliticalconundrumis

castinga bigshadowovertherelationship.

Nord Stream 2, a recently completed

1,230km(764­mile)underseapipelinefor

naturalgas from Russiato Germany,is

fiercely opposed by America’sCongress.

MrBidenopposesittoo,butwaivedsanc­

tionsinMaytoavoida rowwitha closeally.

IfRepublicansenatorshavetheirway,he

maybecompelledtoimposethemafterall.

LedbyTedCruz,a senatorfromTexas,

RepublicansintheSenatearepushingfor

newsanctionsviaanamendmenttothe

annual National Defence Authorisation

Act(ndaa). OnDecember1st theSenate

wasduetovoteon 21 amendmentstothe

ndaa, includingtheoneinvolvingthens 2

sanctions.Butvotinghadbeenheldupas

TheEconomistwenttopress,astheRepub­

B ERLIN

NordStream2 isa headacheforthe

newGermangovernment

UkraineandRussia

Waiting for

the freeze

W

hattomakeofthemilitaryanalysts
who  calmly  list  the  reasons  why  the
most  serious  war  in  Europe  since  1945
might  begin  in  January?  The  flat,  muddy
terrain  of  south­eastern  Ukraine  will  be
frozen  solid  by  then,  allowing  Russian
tanks to roll in. It is in the middle of the de­
ployment  cycle  for  the  conscripts  who
make  up  much  of  Russia’s  ground  forces.
And  Russia  may  find  itself  with  a  pretext
for invasion, since the new year has in the
past  brought  front­line  flare­ups  in
Ukraine’s war against Russian­backed sep­
aratists.  Besides,  the  100,000  Russian
troops  massed  near  the  border  are  more
than  mere  theatre;  Russia  is  setting  up
field hospitals and calling up its reserves.
Dima  is  unimpressed.  A  colonel  in  the
Ukrainian army, he has watched the rapid
transformation  of  his  country’s  armed
forces  from  a  bad  joke  to  something  ap­
proaching  a  modern  army.  And  he  thinks
Russia  has  been  watching,  too.  “They  are
afraid  of  us,  because  since  2014  we  have
shown  what  we  can  do,”  says  Dima,  who
prefers not to use his real name. “It would
be  a  third  world  war,  at  a  minimum,”  he
says, perhaps with a touch of hyperbole. In
the corner of a café in Kyiv, fidgeting with
cigarettes  and  coffee,  he  remembers  how
far Ukraine has travelled.
In 2014 Dima was commanding a battal­
ion  near  Luhansk,  a  city  in  the  south­east
near  the  Russian  border.  Of  his  700  sol­
diers,  only  40  were  ready  for  active  duty.
His men did not bother to wear their clum­
sy Soviet­army vests or helmets, which of­
fered little protection against bullets. Sol­
diers  instead,  when  possible,  dressed  in
German  gear  scrounged  abroad  from  sec­
ond­hand  stores  by  volunteers.  His  tanks
had the wrong engines installed. Few men
had the training they needed to fight well.
But  had  Ukraine  enjoyed  today’s  armed
forces back in 2014 “Donetsk and Luhansk
would  be  free  today,”  claims  Dima,  with  a
snap of his fingers. 
But they are not. Ukraine failed to stop
Russia’s  annexation  of  Crimea,  and  the
self­declared  “republics”  of  Donetsk  and
Luhansk remain outside Ukraine’s control
(see  map).  That  Ukraine  had  just  6,000
combat­ready troops at the time was a re­
sult  of  decades  of  neglect.  Well­inten­
tioned Ukrainian politicians were compla­
cent after the signing in 1994 of the Buda­
pest  memorandum,  under  which  Ukraine
gave  up  its  nuclear  weapons  in  exchange

forsecurityguaranteesfromAmerica,Brit­

ain and Russia. Ill­intentioned officials

soldoffequipmentandtooktheircut.

NowUkraineisgettingitsacttogether.

Militaryspendingasashare ofgdphas

morethandoubled,to4%,fundedinpart

bya “militarylevy”onincomes.America

hasgiven$2.5bn­worthofequipmentto

Ukraine.ThatincludesHarrisradiostoen­

suretroopscancommunicate,andcoun­

ter­batteryradarstodetectthesourceof

enemy fire. Ukraine now has 250,000

troops and a further 900,000 reserves;

some300,000ofthemhaveexperienceon

thefrontline.UkrainehasboughtBayrak­

tartb­2combat­capabledronesfromTur­

key,anatomember.AmericahassentJav­

elinmissiles,thoughontheconditionthat

theyarestoredfarfromthefrontline.

Ukraine’spresident,VolodymyrZelen­

sky,wantsmore thannewweapons.He

covetsaccessiontonato. Thatwouldcom­

mitAmericaand 29 othercountriestoleap

toUkraine’sdefenceifitwereattackedby

Russia.Butsuchaninvitationlookshighly

unlikely;natodoesnotwantanunambig­

uous commitment to defend a country

Russiahasalreadyattacked.However,Uk­

raineispreparingitsforcestoworkwith

nato’s anyway.Jointexercisesareincreas­

inglycommon,andgettingbigger.Anew

policy requires all Ukrainian troops to

havea commandofEnglishby2025.

Muchof Ukraine’s improvement has

been based on the premise that Russia

wantstochallengeUkraine,butdoesnot

wantthecostofwaginga warinitsown

name.Thishasproducedthekindofdisor­

ganisedgroundwarthatUkrainehasbeen

gettingbetteratfightingsince2014.

ButtheKremlin’sthinkingmaynowbe

changinginresponsetoa versionofthefu­

tureitclaimstofindintolerable.Itfears

thata West­veeringUkrainewillabandon

itshistoricalroleasa bufferbetweenRus­

siaandtheWest,andinsteadplayhostto

Americanfirepoweronlya shortdistance

fromMoscow.OnDecember1stMrPutin

useda speechtodemandthatnatocom­

mitnottostationtroopsormissilesinUk­

raine,pledgesthatnatowillnotbepre­

paredtogive.

Russianimpatiencewithwhatit claims

isthreateningbehaviourdoesnotmeanit

wishestogobbleupswathesofUkrainian

territoryforgood.FyodorLukyanov,a for­

eign­policyanalystclosetotheKremlin,

suggeststhata quick,hardincursionakin

toRussia’swarwithGeorgiain 2008 could

occur,followedbymercilesstalks.Apre­

textwouldbeeasytomanufacture.

IfRussianforcewereunleashedfully

uponUkraine’stroops,itwouldpulverise

them.NothinginUkraine’sarsenalwould

beabletostopRussia’sairforceofmodern

jets,whichrecentlyprovedtheirpowerina

bombing campaign over Syria. Most of

Ukraine’snavyvanished alongwithCri­

meain2014,andithasnotbeenrebuilt

since then. Russian troops are better

armed,greaterinnumberandbackedbya

smoother logistics set­up. No Western

powerlookswillingtowagewaragainst

RussiaforUkraine’ssake.MrPutinisprob­

ablybluffing.Ifheisnot,Dima’sconfi­

dencewillfacea fearsometest.n

KYIV
The Ukrainian army has got better at
fighting Russian-backed separatists

Donetsk

Odessa

Kyiv

Sevastopol

Seaof

Azov

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Crimea

Controlledby

Russian-backed

separatists

D

Luhansk

200 km

Moscow