The Economist - 04.12.2021

38 Europe The Economist December 4th 2021

licans tried to add yet more amendments.

Mr Cruz and his allies are also blockingthe

appointment  of  several  dozen  foreign­

policy  officials,  including  the  American

ambassadors to Germany, Israel and Egypt,

to increase the pressure on Mr Biden.

Many  American  lawmakers  have op­

posed  ns2  since  Gazprom,  Russia’sstate­

controlled gas giant, joined forces withfive

European  energy  firms  in  2015  to  buildit

alongside  an  existing  pipeline  underthe

Baltic Sea, at a cost of €9.5bn ($11bn).They

fret  that  the  new  pipeline,  which  doubles

Russia’s capacity to export gas to Germany,

will increase Europe’s dependence onRus­

sian energy. They worry that it will deprive

Ukraine  (and  Poland)  of  transit  fees of

about  $2bn  a  year  from  the  existingpipe­

lines that pass through their territory,and

make it easier for Russia to cut suppliesof

winter gas to eastern Ukraine. And theyar­

gue that the current infrastructure already

provides  sufficient  capacity  for  Europe’s

energy needs. American opposition tons 2

is  further  fuelled  by  Russia’s  military

build­up  on  its  border  with  Ukraine(see

previous article). 

Germans  argue  that  the  pipelineisno

threat to Ukraine so long as what is known

as  the  “joint  statement”  is  implemented.

This  is  an  agreement  Angela  Merkel,the

outgoing  chancellor,  and  Mr  Biden  struck

in  July,  in  which  Germany  vowed  totake

action,  including  imposing  eu sanctions,

if  Russia  were  to  use  energy  as  a  weapon

against Ukraine. The statement also stipu­

lates that Russia must honour its gas­tran­

sit  agreement  with  Ukraine  and  extendit

beyond  2024  by  up  to  ten  years.  Germany

has  appointed  a  special  envoy  to  helpthe

renegotiation of the transit agreement.

Yet  the  pipeline  has  been  hittingnew

problems. As well as the growing pressure

from  Congress,  in  mid­November Ger­

many’s  energy  regulator  suspended the

certification process of the pipeline. Itsaid

that to secure an operating licence thens 2

consortium needed first to form a German

subsidiary  under  German  companylaw,

which will introduce a delay. 

Germany’s  extensive  coalition  agree­

ment  does  not  directly  mention  ns2. It

says  only  that  European  energy  law“ap­

plies  to  energy  projects  in  Germany”.An­

nalena Baerbock, the co­head of the Green

Party who will soon be foreign minister,is

a  vocal  critic  of  the  pipeline.  Last  month

she  accused  Russia  of  trying  to  blackmail

the German government into allowingns 2

to start pumping gas by keeping gas prices

high. Yet ultimately it will probablybeMr

Scholz  who  decides  his  government’s

stance  on  the  pipeline.  Leaders  of  hisSo­

cial  Democratic  Party  back  the  pipeline,

which  they  say  enhances  Europe’s  energy

security.  The  pipeline  still  seems  likelyto

go  ahead,  but  a  return  to  the  harmonyof

the Merkel­Obama era is a long way off.n

Italy’snextpresident

Guess who?

O

peningtheirparliamentarymailbox­

es last month, Italian lawmakers were

surprised to find an anthology of speeches

by  Silvio  Berlusconi.  On  the  cover  was  a

photograph of the former prime minister,

his  arms  raised  high  to  acknowledge  the

adulation  of  an  unseen  crowd.  The  book­

let,  modestly  entitled  “I  am  Forza  Italia”

(“Come on, Italy”, the party that Mr Berlus­

coni founded and leads), was the opening

gambit  in  the  85­year­old  media  mogul’s

undeclared  campaign  to  crown  his  turbu­

lent  career  with  election,  by  a  college  of

parliamentarians,  to  Italy’s  highest  office.

The term of the incumbent president, Ser­

gio  Mattarella,  expires  on  February  3rd,

and  he  has  repeatedly  ruled  out  an  exten­

sion. The race to succeed him is now dom­

inating Italian public life.

Why?  A  president  spends  much  of  his

time  making  speeches,  conferring  hon­

ours  and  receiving  dignitaries.  He  (there

has  never  been  a  female  president)  has

some weighty powers, including responsi­

bility  for  dissolving  parliament  and  ap­

pointing  the  prime  minister.  But  those

powers are few. What makes the choice of a

president  so  important  just  now  is  that

those who are thought to covet the job in­

clude  the  current  prime  minister,  Mario

Draghi,  the  guarantor  to  Brussels  and  the

markets that Italy will spend productively

the  €200bn  ($225bn)  it  stands  to  get  from

the eu’s pandemic recovery fund.

Whichever way the presidency goes

could create a problem. If Mr Draghi is seen

to fail in a bid to be chosen as the next oc­

cupant  of  the  Quirinale  palace,  his  stand­

ing will be diminished and thus his capac­

ity  to  hold  together  the  broad  coalition  of

parties  that  support  him  but  whose  only

common  denominator  is  awe­struck  re­

spect  for  him.  If,  however,  he  succeeds,  a

replacement will need to be found who can

stop the heterogeneous coalition from fall­

ing apart. And that will not be at all easy. 

Either way, the odds on a snap election

will  shorten,  and  if  an  early  vote  is  held,

the  polls  currently  suggest  that  the  out­

come  would  be  a  coalition  government

dominated  by  two  parties  with  a  track  re­

cord  of  confrontation  with  the  European

Commission:  the  Brothers  of  Italy  party,

whose  roots  lie  in  neo­fascism,  and  the

populist Northern League. Within Italy, the

risks of that tend to be downplayed. Not so

elsewhere.  Teneo,  a  consultancy,  warned

recently  that  Mr  Draghi’s  elevation  could

“plunge the country back into political tur­

moil,  undermining  efforts  to  enact  re­

forms  needed  to  secure  regular  instal­

ments of recovery fund cash”.

Giorgia Meloni of the Brothers and Mat­

teo Salvini of the League are both nominal­

ly  supportive  of  their  ally,  Mr  Berlusconi.

But it is clear their interests actually lie in

ushering  Mr  Draghi  upstairs.  Whether  he,

and they, will get their way is another mat­

ter: a solution that allows Mr Draghi to stay

on as prime minister with minimal loss of

face  may  yet  be  found.  Enrico  Letta,  the

leader  of  the  centre­left  Democratic  Party,

which has risen to the top of the polls in re­

cent  weeks,  wants  Mr  Draghi  to  stick

around.  And  recent  utterances  by  leading

figures in the Five Star Movement, still the

biggest group in parliament despite its col­

lapse  in  the  polls  since  the  previous  elec­

tion, suggest that they do, too. 

Perhaps most important of all is the in­

stinct  for  self­preservation,  both  political

and  financial,  of  Italy’s  lawmakers.  Be­

cause  of  a  reform  in  2019,  the  next  parlia­

ment  will  have  around  two­thirds  the

number of seats of the current one. And if

the next election is held before September

24th, 2022, the first­time parliamentarians

among them will lose their rights to a pen­

sion. Not for nothing is Mr Berlusconi im­

plying  that,  werehemade  president,  he

would ensure thelegislature ran to the end

of its term in 2023.n

R OME

Implausible though it seems, Silvio Berlusconi fancies himself for the highest job

More mayhem to make