Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions of a Super-Efficient Family Car

Differences in longevity between conventional ICEVs and advanced vehicles depend on both
the longevity of the alternative drivetrains and the importance of drivetrain deterioration in future
decisions about vehicle scrappage. It is not really clear that, for the vehicles analyzed here,
drivetrain condition is likely to be a critical determinant of scrappage decisions. For example,
although material shifts in vehicle skins and structures should improve the longevity of these
components, deterioration of body parts may still remain a problem. Vehicles will either have
aluminum or composite-based skins and structures, or their steel equivalents will likely have
excellent weathering characteristics to compete with these materials. Manufacturers of
composites, however, must solve some problems of delaminating that have occurred in aircraft,
and even aluminum oxidizes, albeit slowly. There have been some legitimate concerns about the
repairability of aluminum and composites, which raise the possibility that moderate accidents--a
not-infrequent occurrence--could lead to early retirement of future vehicles. This is extremely
unlikely, however, as materials that are not easily repaired will not be commercially successful.

Delucchi estimates that the average lifetime of EVs and FCEVs will be about one-third longer

than ICEVs--160,000 miles compared to 120,000 miles.^75 This differential seems possible but not

compelling; the level of uncertainty is, again, extremely high. As for ICE-powered hybrids, the

added complexity coupled with reduced stress on the engine might best be interpreted as implying

that vehicle longevity may be similar to that of the conventional ICEV, and possibly even shorter.

Trade-In Value

Automotive marketers pay significant attention to trade-in value in their advertising campaigns

when the vehicles being promoted have values that are sharply higher than fleet averages. This

attention implies that the industry believes that expected trade-in value is an important element of

purchase decisions--not surprising considering the comparatively short periods that the average

vehicle remains in the hands of its first owner.

Over the long term, when advanced technology vehicles become commercially accepted and

widespread in the fleet, and technologies become relatively mature, there should be little

difference in patterns of trade-in values among alternative vehicle types, except as a direct result

of different expected vehicle lifetimes. There is a good chance, however, that trade-in values for

advanced vehicles will fall short of fleet averages for a number of years for two reasons:

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Many early vehicles will serve niche markets; the buyer pool for used vehicles would then be limited,

depressing prices;

For a number of years following commercialization, innovation of drivetrain technologies should be

rapid, making older vehicles less attractive in comparison.