Energy Costs
Differences in energy prices coupled with differences in energy efficiency will yield some
significant differences among alternative annualized energy costs of the different vehicles.OTA has assumed a baseline retail price of gasoline of $1.50/gallon (in 1995 dollars) in 2015.
This choice is somewhat arbitrary, but reflects a future of relatively plentiful supplies of oil, with
pressures generated by sharply higher worldwide vehicle populations alleviated by continued
advances in oilfield technologies, some use of alternative transportation fuels,^76 and widespread
availability of nonoil fuels (including nuclear and other nonfossil sources) for power generation.^77
The series of vehicles evaluated in this report for 2015, their fuel consumption, and yearly fuel
costs (based on 10,000 miles per year, 7 cents/kWh offpeak electricity, $.75 per gallon
methanol^78 ) are shown in table 4-17.At the assumed prices of fuels and electricity, the relative advantage in fuel costs of moving
beyond the 53 mpg advanced conventional vehicle is relatively small, about $200/year in the best
case (EV with Ni-MH batteries). This conclusion would change substantially, of course, with
higher gasoline prices and lower electricity prices. At European gasoline price levels of
$4.00/gallon and electricity prices of 5 cents/kWh, the owner of the advanced conventional
vehicle would pay nearly $800/year more than the owner of the Ni-MH-powered EV, and about
$730/year more than the owner of the lead acid-powered EV.
Conclusions
If advanced vehicles yield substantial savings over conventional vehicles in O&M costs, and
also last significantly longer, they will be cost-effective even if their initial purchase price is a few
thousand dollars greater than conventional vehicles. Although experts contacted by OTA
generally agree that electric drivetrains should experience lower maintenance costs and last longer
than ICE drivetrains, the magnitude of savings is difficult to gauge because of continuing
improvements in ICE drivetrains and the likelihood that future electric drivetrains will undergo
profound changes from those of today. Further, battery replacement costs could overwhelm other
savings, although this, too, will be uncertain until battery development matures. Finally, vehicles
with hybrid drivetrains may experience no O&M savings because of their complexity; and,
although analysts have claimed that fuel cell vehicles will be low maintenance and long-lived,^79 the
very early development state of PEM cells demands caution in such assessments, and there is little
obvious basis for them.
(^76) Obviously, the relative success of advanced technologies for light-duty vehicles, including EVs, could begin to play a depressing role in oil
prices by 2015, although this role might primarily be anticipatory (that is, giving buyers a psychological advantage over sellers) rather than physical
(depressing oil demand) at this relatively early date. 77
The choice has evoked reactions from study reviewers ranging from indifference (presumably acceptance) to sharp disagreement, with most of
the disagreement from those who foresee much higher oil prices in this time frame.